Analysis
11/17/22
6 min read
Week 11 NFL Injury Update: Kupp, Fournette, Watt and More
There were a lot of injury-related stories to cover from the past week, so let's take them one at a time.
Rams WR Cooper Kupp
Kupp suffered a high-ankle sprain in Week 10. According to media reports, Kupp avoided any fibula fracture often associated with the mechanism that causes this ankle injury.
While we can see the player land on the back of Kupp's leg to cause the sprain, we cannot see the MRI of the ligaments involved to measure the grade of this injury. However, Kupp has been advised to undergo tightrope surgery on Wednesday, so we can safely assume at least moderate tearing of the ligament.
This is the same surgery made familiar to football fans by Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts while playing at Alabama. Both managed to return to play in less than a month. While this surgery will likely be a great success for Kupp, placing him on injured reserve ensures he will not be pressured to rush the rehab process like in the previous examples.
The Rams will need to produce a run of wins in the next five-to-seven weeks for management to consider letting Kupp return to action. However, I see no point in interfering with his off-season program if the Rams are already eliminated from playoff contention. As a side note, Kupp had an ankle injury earlier in the year. This is entirely unrelated, though, as it wasn't the same side of the body.
During the 20 plays after Kupp exited, the target counts were as follows: Tyler Higbee (4), Kyren Williams (3), Van Jefferson (2), Ben Skowronek (2), Brandon Powell (1), Allen Robinson (1) and Brycen Hopkins (1). This was the pecking order for John Wolford, so we'll have to wait and see who Stafford prefers upon his return from a concussion.Â
Buccaneers RB Leonard Fournette
Fournette sustained a hip pointer on Sunday morning in Germany while running the ball into a group of defenders. A hip pointer is a bruise to the upper outside part of the hip bone. It's known to be quite painful, due to direct contact with a group of nerves that run over the hip. Returning from this injury is typically a matter of pain tolerance and giving the nerves time to heal. We can expect Fournette to return after the Buccaneers' bye week.
Leonard's playing time going forward compared to his counterpart, Rachaad White, shouldn't be associated with this hip injury upon return. One interesting statistic to look under the hood of Leonard's play this season is bust rate. This is a percentage of runs where the player loses an expected point (a statistic used to define how many points a play is worth to a team).
Among the 50 running backs with at least 50 carries this season, Fournette has the eighth-highest bust rate on his runs and the third-lowest broken or missed tackle rate among these running backs. He also has the lowest Total Points, primarily due to his poor performance while blocking and creating yards after contact. As a result, many expect a change of guard, and it's not difficult to understand why.
Steelers Edge Rusher T.J. Watt
Watt returned to the field after two months to play against the Saints. He had been dealing with a grade-two strain and partial tearing of his pectoral muscle. Pittsburgh's medical staff decided a non-surgical route was the best course of action, and Watt did not disappoint upon return. He played 79% of snaps in Week 10, near his 65% snap count percentage from 2021. He tallied four tackles, three pressures and forced one blown block in Week 10.
At Sports Info Solutions, one of our most helpful injury tools is our injury risk prediction app. Using many variables such as injury history, play style/involvement and biometrics, we can investigate Watt's risk of injury for the remainder of the season. Thankfully, our prediction model has him well below the average injury risk compared to other edge players around the league. The sky is the limit in the second half of the season for the Steelers' reigning DPOY.Â
Colts RB Jonathan Taylor
In Week 10, Jonathan Taylor returned from a lateral ankle sprain reinjury and played 60 of 64 snaps. Taylor first injured his right ankle on Oct. 2, with the re-sprain occurring on Oct. 30. Taylor also missed practice the Wednesday before his initial ankle sprain with a toe injury. So, the bell-cow RB has been dealing with quite a bit in his lower legs this season.
In his first game back, Taylor had 147 yards on 22 carries and caught two passes. He showed how healthy he was by breaking his first carry of more than 30 yards this season. This 66-yard touchdown run is the type of flash we have come to expect when Taylor touches the ball. He produced eight of these 30+ yard runs in the 2021 season. While Taylor's injuries were piling up just halfway through the season, this impressive return suggests he's entirely back. It will be exciting to watch one of the top RBs in action against the Eagles in Week 11.
49ers RB Elijah Mitchell
Mitchell returned from a grade-two MCL sprain in impressive fashion after two months of rehab. He played 25 snaps, ran five routes and got 19 touches, while Christian McCaffrey played 46 snaps, ran 22 routes and tallied 18 touches.
This near 50/50 split with McCaffery shows just how confident the 49ers were in Mitchell's timeline to heal and rehab his way back to 100%. In his first game back, Mitchell was healthy enough to fight through 49 yards after contact and force two missed tackles.
According to the SIS injury risk app, Elijah is at an 11% risk of sustaining a new injury that requires at least a one-week absence for the rest of the regular season. This is right around the average for running backs league-wide. The 49ers' newly formed committee will bode well for Mitchell holding up this season if his running mate stays healthy as well.
John Verros contributed to this report.
WATCH MORE: Matt Cassel's Top-10 Quarterbacks
