Analysis

Week 10 Thursday Night Underdog Player Picks: Falcons vs. Panthers

We have exciting news! We have officially partnered with Underdog Fantasy, so we will be moving from using lines on PrizePicks to Underdog. The lines should be similar, so not much will change except fantasy points. It is essential to note that Underdog uses 0.5 points per reception for fantasy points, compared to 1.0 PPR on PrizePicks.

Our hot streak cooled down last Sunday as we went 4-4 on our prop best. We were a Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins argument away from going perfect on our 5/5 confidence plays. That brings us to 56-46-2 at just more than halfway through the season. We have a rematch from Week 8 between the Atlanta Falcons and the Carolina Panthers for this week’s Thursday night game, so let’s see if we can go perfect on Thursday night two weeks in a row!

Tommy Tremble MORE Than 12.5 Receiving Yards

Tremble might have you asking yourself, “who?” But he has run the fourth most routes for the Panthers since Christian McCaffrey was traded a few weeks ago. The production hasn’t been there. He doesn’t even have 100 total yards receiving this season, but he has had four targets each of the last two weeks. That might not be a lot of targets going his way, but his prop is only 12.5 receiving yards. The opportunity should be there for Tremble to easily go over this line. 

Tremble is also facing a weak Atlanta secondary that is giving up the third most yards receiving to tight ends per game this season. In their Week 8 game, Tremble had two receptions for 17 yards. Even against a terrible pass defense, Tremble’s usage doesn’t inspire much confidence. I still think he easily goes over, so I’ll give it a 4/5 confidence rating and would play it up to 17.5 receiving yards. 

Cordarrelle Patterson MORE Than 52.5 Rushing Yards

In Patterson’s first week back from injury, he led the Falcons backfield in rush attempts and routes run. He also tied Tyler Allgeier for snaps and targets. It’s obvious the Falcons wanted this backfield to be a committee when Patterson was injured. Now that he’s back, it will be interesting to see if he gets full command of the backfield again.

Prior to his injury, Patterson had 69% of the running back rushes on the Falcons. There is a chance the Falcons give him more of his lead-back role in his second game back from injury. If that is the case, this line will not stand a chance. 

Also supporting this play is the fact the Panthers’ defense has allowed the fifth most yards rushing per game this season. They’ve also given up the most rushes of 20 or more yards and the third most rushes of 10 or more yards. (Side note: if you’re betting on a sportsbook, Patterson’s longest rush over 14.5 yards is looking really good). 

Patterson’s solid rushing floor, combined with the Panther’s poor rush defense, makes this a very strong play. I do worry about Atlanta keeping the running back committee going, so I am rating it a 4/5 in my confidence rating. I would play this up to 59.5 rushing yards. 

Kyle Pitts MORE Than 37.5 Receiving Yards

The Falcons are finally starting to use Pitts, their star tight end, as we had hoped prior to the season. In the last three weeks, Pitts has led the team in targets every game and has had more than a 30% target share every game. In addition to dominating the team’s target share, the Falcons finally decided to open up the playbook and started using Pitts to attack deep down the field.

Against the Chargers last week, Pitts had 208 air yards on seven targets, which is well over 20 air yards per target. Pitts was overthrown a few times, and he could have had a 76-yard touchdown if Falcons QB Marcus Mariota did not miss him open downfield late in the game. For a player seeing his usage and air yards, 37.5 receiving yards is laughably low.

The Panthers have not been horrible at defending tight ends, but they do give up 46.2 yards receiving per game to them. Pitts had 80 yards receiving when these teams played two weeks ago, and I believe he will have a similar game Thursday night. This is my highest confidence play of the night, and I give it a 5/5 confidence rating. I would play it up to 49.5 receiving yards. 

WATCH MORE: Betting the NFL Week 10

 

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