Analysis
11/9/22
7 min read
Week 10 NFL Offensive Efficiency Rankings
As we approach Week 10 in the NFL, we still see offenses struggling to score points. Scoring is at its lowest point (43 combined points per game) through Week 9 since 2017, as defenses have adapted to slow down some high-powered offenses from the past. Overall efficiency is also down at -0.04 EPA/Play.
This season, we’ve taken a weekly temperature on the efficiency of each offense and defense. This article will once again check in on how each NFL offense ranks in the aforementioned EPA/play. If you’re unfamiliar with EPA, it stands for expected points added and is simply a way to measure whether or not a play brought a team closer to scoring.
For example, it’s easy to understand that a gain of five yards on fourth-and-4 is good, whereas a gain of five yards on fourth-and-6 is bad, and EPA can contextualize that in a way that net yards cannot.
It also helps quantify the value of turnover plays. Another example would be a quarterback throwing a pick-six on first-and-goal from the opponent’s 1-yard line. Conventional wisdom would say that was a 14-point swing – because we expected the offense to score a touchdown in that situation – and EPA would reflect roughly that.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
EPA/Play = 0.12
Last Week = 1
Even with the Chiefs struggling to put away the Titans on Sunday night, they retain the top spot going into Week 10. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes again put up gaudy numbers, throwing the ball 68(!) times for 446 yards in the overtime win. Through eight games, he has 2,605 yards through the air, which comes to 325.6 yards per game.
If he keeps up this pace, he will break Peyton Manning’s regular season passing yards record of 5,477 (albeit with a 17th game). With a run game that has posted the 4th fewest attempts per game, the volume will be there for Mahomes to get the record.
2. Philadelphia Eagles
EPA/Play = 0.09
Last Week = T-3
3. Buffalo Bills
EPA/Play = 0.07
Last Week = 2
4. Baltimore Ravens
EPA/Play = 0.03
Last Week = 6
T-5. Cleveland Browns
EPA/Play = 0.02
Last Week = T-7
T-5. Miami Dolphins
EPA/Play = 0.02
Last Week = T-11
The Dolphins' offensive attack was once again on full display in a 35-32 win against the Bears, leading to the most significant jump in the offensive efficiency rankings this week. Since returning to the Dolphins in Week 7 against the Steelers, Tua Tagovailoa ranks first in adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) with 10.4 and fourth in SIS’ Independent Quarterback Rating (IQR) (minimum 75 attempts). He has also been able to sling the ball in a clean pocket, as he has been pressured just 19% of the time since his return, which ranks third.
T-5. Seattle Seahawks
EPA/Play = 0.02
Last Week = 5
8. Las Vegas Raiders
EPA/Play = 0.01
Last Week = T-3
9. Cincinnati Bengals
EPA/Play = 0.00
Last Week = T-9
T-10. Atlanta Falcons
EPA/Play = -0.01
Last Week = T-11
T-10. Jacksonville Jaguars
EPA/Play = -0.01
Last Week = T-9
12. New York Giants
EPA/Play = -0.02
Last Week = T-7
T-13. Minnesota Vikings
EPA/Play = -0.03
Last Week = T-13
T-13. San Francisco 49ers
EPA/Play = -0.03
Last Week = T-17
T-15. Detroit Lions
EPA/Play = -0.043
Last Week = T-17
T-15. Arizona Cardinals
EPA/Play = -0.04
Last Week = T-13
T-15. Dallas Cowboys
EPA/Play = -0.04
Last Week = T-21
T-15. Los Angeles Chargers
EPA/Play = -0.04
Last Week = T-15
T-15. New Orleans Saints
EPA/Play = -0.04
Last Week = T-17
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
EPA/Play = -0.05
Last Week = T-15
Even with a 16-13 win against the Rams, the Buccaneers' offense sputtered once again, other than the usual Tom Brady game-winning touchdown drive. Brady’s 4.8 yards per attempt was his lowest rate of the season, Mike Evans dropped two passes (among six by the team as a whole), and the run game gained an uninspiring 51 yards.
For the first time this season, a Buccaneers tight end caught a touchdown as Cade Otton scored the game-winner and was also the leading receiver with 68 yards. A trip to Germany may open up the Bucs offense against the Seahawks.
21. Chicago Bears
EPA/Play = -0.06
Last Week = T-24
The Bears continued to find success in the run game against the Dolphins. Quarterback Justin Fields set an NFL record for rushing yards in a game by a QB with 178, refusing to take the coaching advice of Dolphins coach Mike McDaniel.
As a result of quarterback runs being more efficient, the Bears rank second in EPA per rushing attempt with 0.08. Removing quarterback runs, the Bears rank 20th at -0.04. The progression of Fields’ arm with the threat of his legs could take this offense to the next level.
T-22. Green Bay Packers
EPA/Play = -0.09
Last Week = T-21
T-22. New York Jets
EPA/Play = -0.09
Last Week = T-24
T-22. Tennessee Titans
EPA/Play = -0.09
Last Week = T-21
25. New England Patriots
EPA/Play = -0.11
Last Week = T-17
Even in a 26-3 win against the Colts, the Patriots still posted the second-lowest passing and rushing EPA totals of the week. During the past three weeks, they have failed to reach 200 passing yards, and quarterback Mac Jones has the lowest passing yards per attempt at 5.0. After their bye in Week 10, they face the Jets, Vikings and Bills.
The Jets and the Bills both rank in the top 5 of defensive efficiency, and the Vikings are fighting for the top spot in the NFC Playoffs. For the Patriots to survive this gauntlet and make a playoff push, this offense has to improve.
T-26. Carolina Panthers
EPA/Play = -0.12
Last Week = T-31
T-26. Los Angeles Rams
EPA/Play = -0.12
Last Week = T-27
T-28. Pittsburgh Steelers
EPA/Play = -0.13
Last Week = 29
T-28. Washington Commanders
EPA/Play = -0.13
Last Week = T-27
T-30. Denver Broncos
EPA/Play = -0.14
Last Week = T-31
T-30. Houston Texans
EPA/Play = -0.14
Last Week = 26
32. Indianapolis Colts
EPA/Play = -0.18
Last Week = 30
Prepared by James Weaver
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