Analysis
9/28/22
6 min read
The Wednesday Watchman: Week 4 Betting, DFS Information to Know
If your bingo card had the Miami Dolphins as an undefeated team heading into Week 4, congratulations!
Tua Tagovailoa has overcome the Patriots, Ravens and Bills en route to the best record in the AFC. Mastermind coach Mike McDaniel has engineered a juggernaut to be feared and respected. Did you see Bills offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey’s epic meltdown? I would have thrown a tantrum, too, if my receiver didn’t go out of bounds with no timeouts and less than 10 seconds left in the game.
The Eagles are the only other undefeated team in the league. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has proved doubters wrong so far. Compared to 2021, he has increased both his accuracy (67.3% vs 61.3% completion percentage) and yards per attempt (9.35 vs 7.28). Having A.J. Brown surely helps elevate those numbers, but credit is merited for the Eagles who are the best in the NFC East.
Speaking of that division, who foresaw quarterback Cooper Rush leading the Cowboys to two straight wins? The Dak-less Cowboys have the same number of wins as Tom Brady, Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers. Any given Sunday.
Stat of the Week
- Team defenses are significantly worse against pass plays compared to run plays (rank differential of at least eight for opponent net yards per pass attempt vs. yards per rush allowed)
- Seattle Seahawks (32 vs. 22)
- Arizona Cardinals (31 vs. 16)
- Minnesota Vikings (28 vs. 18)
- New York Jets (29 vs. 6)
- Las Vegas Raiders (25 vs. 9)
- Indianapolis Colts (21 vs. 1)
- Cleveland Browns (20 vs. 11)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (14 vs. 4)
These are what you could call “pass-funnel” defenses. We want to target the QB, WR and TE position players who are facing these teams and worry less about the RBs in these matchups. This logic also makes taking the over on these totals more appealing.
Betting Information to Know
The Seahawks face the Lions indoors in Detroit. The Lions are all offense and no defense, while the Seahawks' offense is also showing signs of life. In what I expect to be a back-and-forth affair, the over of 50 looks great. The Seahawks kept pace with the Falcons last week in a game that saw 50 points outdoors. These two teams have combined to allow 877.3 total yards per game this season.
Carolina has faced three above-average defenses with three below-average offenses in the first three weeks. Now facing the putrid Cardinals defense (with an above-average offense), however, it is Baker Mayfield’s time to get right. In a sneaky blow-up spot for two struggling teams, I think over 42.5 is a lock.
Vikings vs. Saints is a game I'd stay away from. It is out of the country (London), with a banged-up New Orleans team featuring a stellar defense, and the Vikings dealing with an injury to RB Dalvin Cook.
The Jets will take on the Steelers' above-average defense in what looks to be a low-scoring slugfest. With unproven QB Zach Wilson possibly starting against uninspiring Steelers QB Mitch Trubisky, I lean toward the under 40.5.
The Raiders compete in a divisional showdown this week, facing the Broncos. Something isn’t right with the Broncos' offense, and their defense still looks like their best unit. If ever there was a time to get the offense going, it would be against the winless Raiders. I think this matchup has scoring upside, but I am more comfortable taking shots with Broncos players in DFS than betting on sides/totals.
Another divisional matchup sees the Colts take on the Titans. After each team notched their first win in Week 3, they will both look to keep the momentum going. However, Jonathan Taylor should be the main piece used in what will likely be a low-scoring game. I am on the under 42.5.
The Browns will battle the Falcons under a roof in another sneaky Week 4 blow-up spot. I think both offenses could show up and put points on the board. However, the 49.5 total is a large hurdle to clear.
Finally, the resurgent Jaguars will face the undefeated Eagles in Philadelphia. Unfortunately, the Eagles rank first in net yards per pass attempt allowed, while allowing the third most yards per rush. With both offenses humming, though, their total of 48 looks like a decent “over” bet.
DFS Players of Interest
The Seahawks players of interest include budget-option QB Geno Smith ($5600) and WRs DK Metcalf ($6800) and Tyler Lockett ($5900). You could get a low-owned triple-stack with WR Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7700), if healthy. If not, D.J. Chark ($5600) or Josh Reynolds ($4600) could try to replace his production. TE T.J. Hockenson ($4100) might be more likely to keep his momentum going if St. Brown sits out.
Kyler Murray ($7600) and Mayfield ($5200) are QBs I have an interest in. Their receivers are all playable: Marquise Brown ($6900), D.J. Moore ($5300), Greg Dortch ($5000), Robbie Anderson ($4700) and Laviska Shenault ($3500).
Honestly, WR Diontae Johnson ($6000) is the only player I would touch from the Week 4 Jets-Steelers game. Similarly, only WR Courtland Sutton ($6400) interests me in the Broncos-Raiders matchup. Considering the Titans-Colts, I am on Taylor ($8800) for a rebound explosion. Hopefully, his high price combined with last week's mediocre showing scares off ownership.
I think Nick Chubb ($7900) will be the best player for the Browns. However, if you subscribe to the “sneaky over” possibility, QB Jacoby Brissett ($5500) can run and pass. TE David Njoku ($3700) is very affordable and WR Amari Cooper ($6300) is outperforming expectations. You can check out our awesome tool at The 33rd Team, The Edge, where you would see the Falcons are allowing the second most fantasy points to tight end this season. A Brissett-Cooper-Njoku stack with Atlanta WR Drake London ($6100) on the bring-back could be very low-owned. QB Marcus Mariota ($5600) is also a cheap dual-threat. TE Kyle Pitts ($5000) finally showed up a little bit last week; he could also be worth a look.
All your Eagles are in play. QB Jalen Hurts ($8200) is a world-beater. Receivers A.J. Brown ($7400), Devonta Smith ($5800), and Dallas Goedert ($4500) are an amazing trio. Good luck choosing which option has the spike week. RBs Travis Etienne ($5400) and James Robinson ($6400) are both in play, as are WRs Christian Kirk ($6600) and Zay Jones ($4200), even in a less-appealing WR matchup.
For fantasy purposes, I would start any of the players mentioned in the DFS section. If you are curious about waiver wire pickups, I agree with my colleagues! Mariota, Romeo Doubs, Khalil Herbert, and Jamaal Williams should not still be on waivers.
Check in again next time for The Wednesday Watchman: Week 5!
(Data courtesy of SIS and TruMedia Networks)
WATCH MORE: Josh Larky and Ryan Reynolds Give Their Best Waiver Wire Pickups for Week 4
