Analysis
11/23/22
6 min read
Underdog Fantasy High/Low Picks for NFL's Thanksgiving Slate
Last week was another week that started off well but ended with another disappointing performance from tight end Greg Dulcich and the Broncos' offense. That made sure we went 5-4 on our predictions, which brings our total for the season to 65-58-2. We get a payout-boosted line(that you can only use $1 on) this week on Underdog fantasy, and I found two more 5/5 confidence lines I like for Thanksgiving.
Dak Prescott Higher than 247.5 Passing Yards
This line is a promo this week and will boost the payout of your entry, so it is essential to get it correct. I went back and forth with this line, and I finally settled on the higher side of the line for a few reasons. First, the Giants have almost fully run out of skill position players. Wan’Dale Robinson joined Sterling Shepard on IR this week, and tight end Daniel Bellinger has already been ruled out. Richie James is questionable, which leaves Darius Slayton and Kenny Golladay as the only fully available receivers of note. The Giants will likely see little offensive success against one of the league's best defenses, giving the ball back to Prescott and the Dallas offense often.
I noticed an interesting trend that fully supports this higher-than-play. Since the beginning of last season, Prescott has averaged 295 passing yards when the opposing team punts four times or more. Out of this same sample, Prescott was higher than 247.5 passing yards in eight out of those 12 games.
The Giants have averaged 4.3 punts per game this season, and will likely punt more on Thursday as their offense struggles against Dallas' defense. I am pretty confident in this play, but I do worry the Giants and Cowboys lean on the running game and drain the clock. I rate it 4/5 for confidence and would not play it any higher.
Jamaal Williams LOWER than 14.5 rushing attempts
I am going back to my process last week on Williams. We looked to have the lower play on rush yards all locked up last week until Detroit got the ball back with less than five minutes left and used Williams to run out the clock. The Lions were trying to protect their lead against the Giants, a position I do not see them being in on Thursday against the Bills. In a game they are 10-point underdogs, I expect the Lions to be unable to rush as much as they did last week.
A weird aspect of this play is the emergence of Justin Jackson in this backfield. Last week, he had nine rushes, which was a season-high and more than D’Andre Swift has had in a single game since Week 1. A negative game script combined with a three-way timeshare in the backfield makes me confident in this play. I rate it 4/5 for confidence and would play it down to 13.5 rush attempts.
Devin Singletary HIGHER than 0.5 Rushing, Receiving TDs
This play is self-explanatory, and I am surprised Underdog has this line posted. The Lions give up 3.6 touchdowns per game, the most in the league. Singletary does not have a lot of touchdowns this season, but during the last two weeks, he has been an effective goal-line back, scoring three touchdowns on four rushes within the five-yard line.
Considering how terrible Detroit’s defense has been, I like this line. However, Josh Allen’s usage in the redzone does scare me a little bit, so I give it a confidence rating of 4/5, and I would not play it higher.
Tony Pollard HIGHER than 67.5 Rushing Yards
Pollard has been on fire recently. With some great matchups and Ezekiel Elliot out for a few games, Pollard has averaged 102 rush yards per game in his last four games. Elliot even played last week and Pollard still had 80 rushing yards. Dallas looks to finally have realized the type of big play threat Pollard is and hopefully will continue to give him more touches.
I doubt with the size of his contract and the trust Cowboys owner Jerry Jones has in him Elliot will ever fully cede touches to Pollard, but it looks like a timeshare is fully in play here.
I absolutely love this play because of the Giants' defense's propensity for allowing explosive rushing plays. They are allowing four rushes per game of more than 10 yards and one rush per game of more than 20 yards. Only Houston, Carolina and Detroit allow more rushes more than 20 yards per game this season.
Another aspect of this play is Pollard's success against man coverage. The Giants run man coverage 50% of the time on defense, the highest rate in the league. Pollard has averaged 6.7 yards per carry against man coverage. He also tore the Giants apart earlier this season with 105 rushing yards on 13 carries. Elliot seeing more touches as he gets healthier still scares me, but I give it a 5/5 for confidence and would play it up to 79.5 rushing yards.
T.J. Hockenson HIGHER than 4.0 receptions
Hockenson has been fully unlocked as a receiving weapon since his trade to Minnesota. In his three games with the Vikings, he has at least nine targets and a more than 20% target share in every game. Last week, was the most inefficient he has been with his targets, catching only five of them.
If he continues to see a target share of more than 20%, this line shouldn’t stand a chance and at worst will tie. I couldn’t believe this line was this low when I first saw it, and I think it is guaranteed to move before the game starts on Thursday. This is my most confident pick of the week. I rate it 5/5 and would play it if it moves to 5.0 but not any higher.
Recommended Play:
To get the most out of the promo Prescott line, you need five lines in your entry. I give all of these picks at least a 4/5 confidence rating, so I like playing all of them together.
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