Analysis
12/7/22
5 min read
Wednesday Watchman: NFL Week 14 Betting, DFS and Fantasy Information to Know
Long live Buffalo's Josh Allen. As a passer, he is like a larger, stronger, nimbler Brett Favre. Slinging it all over and getting creative. His play style makes him so fun to watch and root for, even for non-Bills fans. He is an emotional rollercoaster, and we are all along for the ride. The Bills have retaken the lead as the top team in the AFC.
In the other conference, the “NFC BEast” could be sending all of its teams to the playoffs if things fall the right way during the next five weeks. That division has four of the top seven teams in the conference (by record).
Last week was exemplary for this column. Winning betting plays included taking the Lions and the over, and doing a Bengals/Raiders/Lions teaser. But forget the teaser, each of those teams won outright.
DFS recommendations included Davante Adams, Josh Jacobs, Keenan Allen, Joe Burrow, Christian Kirk and cover player Amon-Ra St. Brown. St.Brown had a monster day finishing with 11 catches, 114 yards receiving and two touchdowns.
This week, I want to keep it simple. Let’s look at offenses playing defenses allowing the most passing yards per game since Week 8.
Jaguars (vs Titans - 30)
Vikings (vs Lions - 28)
Rams (vs Raiders - 27)
Well, this is interesting. The six ranked at the bottom of passing yards allowed per game will all play another bottom-six team. These six all fit into three games this week. Funny coincidence.
Betting Stats to Know
Lions-Vikings is a divisional matchup, but the prospects for a shootout are immense. The Lions will be a force in the next few seasons, but this won't be their year. Meanwhile, the Vikings are fighting for home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs. The total is currently at 53, which is a high bar to clear. I would still lean toward taking the over and Minnesota (+2).
The Titans (-3.5) and the Jaguars are both coming off of terrible shellackings. This week, the Titans, who lead the division by three games, are playing a 4-8 Jaguars team without much to play for. Jacksonville forgot to show up against Detroit just a few days ago, why would they remember now? The Titans fired general manager Jon Robinson on Tuesday, but that shouldn't change the outcome. I will pass on betting this game.
The pitiful Rams (+6) covered and nearly scored the upset against the Seahawks last week. Now, they play the Raiders, who upset the Chargers. Exhibits A and B as to why I don’t like to bet divisional favorites. Usually in this spot, I would take the team that was a close loser over the team who won a close upset.
But, I can’t stand betting on the Rams. Sean McVay “made a deal with the devil.” He sold his team’s future to win their Super Bowl last year, and now their QB and two top WRs are injured. Now, watch as the organization sinks back into obscurity. I mean, they signed Baker Mayfield. It's done. Want my betting insight? The Rams will miss the playoffs for the next decade. For this specific game, the total of 44.5 is fair, but looking at our stat, I will take the over.
DFS Stats to Know
All stated ranks are since Week 8.
As much as I was all-in on St. Brown last week, I am all-in on Justin Jefferson this week. I view him as the best WR in the league, and the Lions' defense is nothing to write home about. Their defense ranks 28th against WRs and 31st in third down conversion percentage, which also means KJ Osborn and Kirk Cousins are great plays. Super-stack with these players this week.
On the flip side, the Vikings' defense is interestingly first vs slot WRs, and St. Brown runs about half of his routes from the slot. However, he is still viable considering usage and the “other half” of his route alignment. Minnesota is 32nd defending non-slot WRs.
The Rams have few interesting players. Las Vegas’ defense is 29th vs slot WRs, so Brandon Powell is a possibility. Tutu Atwell can also be a dice-roll option. That’s if John Wolford (or maybe Mayfield) can get it to them.
Derek Carr has really locked on (Aaron Rodgers style) to Adams, so he is always a play. The Rams are only 31st against slot WRs, but Mack Hollins only runs 18.6% of his routes from the slot, and Keelan Cole gets no bankable volume. Both of these teams are difficult to run on, so they will need to pass to move the ball. This may be the week to fade Josh Jacobs while the world keeps piling onto the train.
Waiver Wire Information to Know
Check out what my colleagues are saying about waiver pick-ups! Don’t bother with Mayfield, but Brock Purdy is a worthy addition for the QB needy. Powell has carved out a role for himself also.
Check in again next time for The Wednesday Watchman: Week 15!
(Data courtesy of SIS and TruMedia Networks)
