Analysis
11/11/22
4 min read
NFL's Top 5 Non-QB Offensive Players at Midseason
We’ve officially reached the halfway point of the season – more or less, anyway. The MVP race is fairly crystallized at this point, with Patrick Mahomes (+200), Jalen Hurts (+225), Josh Allen (+300), Lamar Jackson (+1100), and Tua Tagovailoa (+1100) being the frontrunners. Some of these names weren’t preseason favorites, but these are the usual suspects in the sense that they’re all quarterbacks. But a quarterback winning MVP every year isn’t any fun, so let’s pretend they don’t exist for a moment and focus on who the five best offensive players have been so far.
5. Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns
There are other running backs who are more impactful in the passing game, but Chubb has been the best pure runner in the league this season. The Browns are on track to have the most efficient rushing attack of the last seven years (0.11 EPA/play), and a lot of the workload has fallen on his shoulders.
Chubb tallied 35 broken and missed tackles in 2021, and he’s already forced nearly that number (34) through just eight games so far. He also ranks first in rushing Total Points (29) among running backs.
Running backs tend to burn hot and fade quickly, so it’s always good to enjoy them while they last. but we are witnessing a special season from Chubb right now. He has 10 rushing TDs at the halfway point and has a chance to crack 20 – something that hasn’t been done in 16 seasons and just 11 times in NFL history.
4. A.J. Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles
Brown doesn’t deserve all the credit for the Eagles’ coming-out party on offense, but he sure hasn’t hurt. Of the three big wide receivers who were moved this offseason – the others being Tyreek Hill and Davante Adams – it’s pretty easy to make the case that the early ROI on Brown has been the best, considering both his contract and the trade compensation.
Philly’s WR1 is 1st in Total Points on both a volume (26.4) and per-route basis (0.12/route) and is 2nd in yards/route run (3.1) among receivers with at least 20 targets. The big-bodied receiver also ranks sixth among receivers in broken and missed tackle rate (27.9%)
3. Stefon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills
Deciding between Diggs and Brown is tough, and the two are fairly interchangeable. The numbers would favor Brown just a bit, but the older Diggs feels more complete and slightly better at this stage of their careers and isn’t too far behind statistically.
Diggs is 2nd in both Total Points (25.5) and Total Points/route run (0.09), and 3rd in yards/route run (3.0). He’s also 1st in yards/route run on 20+ yard passes (19.5). The Bills miss him quite a bit when he’s not on the field; they average +0.28 EPA/play more with him in the game compared to when he’s on the sideline.
2. Tristan Wirfs, RT, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Wirfs has a really strong case for being the best tackle in football right now. He’s big, he’s strong, he’s quick, and he’s incredibly technically sound. At just 23 years old, the Bucs’ franchise tackle is well on his way to earning first-team All-Pro honors for the second time in his career. He’s blown just two blocks in 414 pass sets and ranks first among tackles in Total Points.
1. Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
Hill has been one of the top wideouts for a few years now, but, at this point, I think we can confidently bill him as the best receiver in the NFL. He’s not the most natural catcher of the football – he has five drops this year – but his quickness, release portfolio, and yards-after-catch ability are just too much for defenses to bottle up.
His 1,104 receiving yards comfortably leads the league, and he’s on pace to eclipse not only his 2021 yardage total (1,239) but also Calvin Johnson’s single-season record (1,964). In addition to his impressive volume stats, he ranks highly in several advanced metrics. He’s 3rd in Total Points and 1st in yards per route run (3.9), the latter of which would be the best in the SIS era (2016-present) over the course of a full season.
It will be interesting to see if Hill can crack 2000 receiving yards in a season – which has never been done – and if he’ll need the 17th game to break Megatron’s record.
Prepared by Bryce Rossler
