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Analysis

NFL Week 8 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Eagles vs. Texans

Thursday Night Football: Philadelphia Eagles (7-0) at Houston Texans (1-5-1)

Opening Spread: Texans +13

Opening Game Total: 44

Opening Team Totals: Texans (15.5), Eagles (28.5)

Weather: Dome.

The Line Report

  • This line opened as Texans +13.
  • This line has moved between Texans +13.5 and Texans +14.
  • DraftKings Pick’Em has the Texans +13.5.
  • Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest releases their lines Thursday afternoon.
  • This total opened at 44 points.
  • This total has moved down to 43.5 at some books and up to as high as 45 points at others.

Notable Injuries

Texans: IR: Edge Jonathan Greenard. Questionable: WR Brandin Cooks, WR Nico Collins, DT Maliek Collins, LB Christian Harris.

Eagles: IR: Edge Derek Barnett. Out: DT Jordan Davis.

The Texans Offense vs. Eagles Defense

I have the Texans’ offensive line ranked 14th, which makes them a rock-solid unit. The Eagles, however, have a top-five-level defensive front. Houston is equipped to mitigate the Eagles’ push, but Philadelphia’s front still has a mild edge in the trenches.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Texans are 3-3-1 against the spread this season.
  • The Texans are 3-4 on overs this season.
  • Texans QB Davis Mills is 9-10-1 against the spread in his career.
  • Mills is 10-10 on overs in his career.
  • Texans coach Lovie Smith is 85-89-9 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
  • Smith is 85-95-3 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.

Texans Offense

  • Houston’s offense is scoring 16.6 points per game, which ranks 29th in the league.
  • The Texans are 25th in the league in yards passing per game and 26th in yards rushing.
  • Per the Edge, among running backs, Dameon Pierce is eighth in yards rushing per game.
  • WR Brandin Cooks leads the Texans in receptions (32), yards receiving (354), target share (22.4%) and air yards share (30.4%).
  • WR Nico Collins is second on the Texans in receptions (18), yards receiving (305), target share (14.8%) and air yards share (27.4%).
  • Cooks and Collins are both on the injury report. If either of them misses this contest, Phillip Dorsett’s role will expand.
  • Texans tight ends Brevin Jordan, Jordan Akins and OJ Howard have each run between 63 and 70 routes.

Eagles Defense

  • Philadelphia has allowed 16.9 points per game, which is fourth in the league.
  • The Eagles are fourth in net yards passing allowed per game and 15th in yards rushing allowed per game.
  • Philadelphia is fifth in the league in sacks with 23 and second in interceptions with 10.
  • Per The Edge, the Eagles have allowed the 22nd most yards rushing per game and the 22nd most yards receiving per game to running backs.
  • Philadelphia has given up the 27th most yards receiving per game to wide receivers.
  • The Eagles have allowed the 18th most yards receiving per game to tight ends. 

The Eagles Offense vs. Texans Defense

The Eagles have a top-five-level offensive line. The Texans have a bottom-tier defensive front. Philadelphia’s offensive line has a major advantage in the trenches against Houston.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Eagles are 5-2 against the spread this season.
  • Philadelphia is 4-3 on overs this season.
  • Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is 18-18-1 against the spread in his career.
  • Hurts is 18-19 on overs in his career.
  • Eagles coach Nick Sirianni is 13-10-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
  • Sirianni is 14-10 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.

Eagles Offense

  • Philadelphia is scoring 28 points per game, good for third in the league.
  • The Eagles are 10th in the league in yards passing per game and sixth in yards rushing.
  • Per the Edge, Hurts is fifth among quarterbacks in yards rushing per game.
  • Among running backs, Miles Sanders is seventh in yards rushing per game.
  • WR A.J. Brown is sixth in the league in yards receiving (659), fifth in target share (31.4%), third in air yards share (44.6%) and fourth in receiving touchdowns (5).
  • WR DeVonta Smith is 24th in the league in target share (25%) and second on the Eagles in air yards share (27.8%).
  • TE Dallas Goedert is sixth among tight ends in target share (19.6%), and he’s 22nd in air yards share (10.2%).
  • Per TruMedia, Goedert is sixth among all pass catchers in yards after the catch (313).
  • Goedert has played 249 snaps as an in-line tight end, 40 on the perimeter and 105 in the slot. 

Texans Defense

  • Houston has allowed 22 points per game, which is 17th in the league.
  • The Texans are 17th in net yards passing allowed per game, and they’ve given up the most yards rushing per game.
  • Houston is 21st in the league in sacks with 15 and ninth in interceptions with seven.
  • In Week 3, Bears QB Justin Fields had 47 yards rushing on eight carries against the Texans.
  • Per The Edge, the Texans have allowed the most yards rushing per game and the 12th most yards receiving per game to running backs.
  • Houston has given up the 19th most yards receiving per game to wide receivers.
  • The Texans have allowed the 22nd most yards receiving per game to tight ends.
  • Houston has allowed the ninth most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot.

This is What You’re Betting On in Texans vs. Eagles

The Eagles have the best roster in the league. I say it every week, Philadelphia has a top-five line on both sides of the ball. They have a top-10 secondary and a top-10 collection of pass catchers, and Sanders is seventh in yards rushing per game among running backs. Hurts has been excellent through the first seven games, consistently making high-difficulty throws while being a threat as a runner.

Sirianni’s coaching staff is at least a fringe top-10 group. If you’re betting on the Eagles, that is what you’re betting on every week. In this case, they get the obstacle of traveling halfway across the country on a short week. But they also get an underwhelming, one-win Texans team. Covering 14 points on the road on a short week is a big ask, but the Eagles have the roster to do it.

On Houston’s side, you have to build your bet on an Eagles letdown game. The Eagles have won two of their three road games by three points. One of those games came on opening day against the Lions. The Eagles trucked Detroit for most of that contest, but the Lions came roaring back late to, ultimately, back door cover.

That’s the same path to a Texans’ cover. They are getting the Eagles at home and on a short week. Houston has a strong offensive line and a solid running game, but the Texans are overmatched from a talent aspect. That’s why if you’re betting on the Texans, you need to build that bet around the Eagles playing down on the short week. Keep in mind the Texans would cover in a 31-20 type of loss where Houston gets to 20 points late. The Eagles have only breached 30 points twice this year, while Houston has scored 20 points in four of its seven games.

Per TruMedia, over the last 154 games played on Thursday Night Football, home teams are 81-69-4 ATS. On average, home teams have covered by just shy of one point while outright winning by a margin just shy of six points. Give the home team a slight baseline edge in your decision-making process on the short week.

Awards Market Ramifications: Jalen Hurts is an MVP contender. Nick Sirianni is the Coach of the Year favorite.

Winner/ Confidence Pool: The Eagles will be close to being universally selected in winner pools and the top-ranked option in confidence pools. I’m going to play the Eagles in all of my winner pools, and they will be in the top two in all of my confidence pools.

Spread Pool: I’m going to pass on this game against the spread. The Eagles have a wildly better roster than the Texans, but laying 14 points on the road on the short week is a lot. I’d rather just avoid this game.

Survivor Pool: As of this moment, I’m going to take the Eagles in my primary survivor pool since I’ve already used the Bengals in that entry. The Eagles have a manageable schedule, so I will be saving them this week in several smaller pools while primarily using the Bengals.

Ryan’s recent betting record:

ATS 2021: 49-31

ATS 2022: 24-11

Props 2022: 22-14

WATCH MORE: Biggest Takeaways From 2022 NFL Trade Deadline

 

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