Analysis
10/23/22
7 min read
NFL Week 7 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Bears vs. Patriots
Chicago Bears (2-4) at New England Patriots (3-3)
Opening Spread: Patriots -7.5
Opening Game Total: 39.5
Opening Team Totals: Patriots (23.5), Bears (16)
Weather: Outdoors, a chance for rain
The Line Report
- This line opened as Patriots -7.5.
- This line remains at Patriots -7.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Patriots -8.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Patriots -8.
- This total opened at 39.5 points.
- This total remains at 39.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Patriots: QB: Mac Jones, WR Nelson Agholor, RG Michael Onwenu, RT Isaiah Wynn, DL Christian Barmore, DL Lawrence Guy, Edge Josh Uche, CB Jonathan Jones, CB Jalen Mills.
Bears: IR: Byron Pringle, LG Cody Whitehair. Out: Jaylon Johnson.
The Patriots Offense vs. Bears Defense
The Patriots have a top-ten caliber offensive line while the Bears have a bottom-tier front. New England’s offensive line has a significant advantage in the trenches in this matchup.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- New England is 3-2-1 against the spread this season.
- The Patriots are 3-3 on overs this season.
- Mac Jones is 10-9-1 against the spread in his career.
- Jones is 10-10 on overs in his career.
- Bailey Zappe is 3-0 against the spread in his career.
- Zappe is 2-1 on overs in his career.
- Bill Belichick is 205-142-12 against the spread since the year 2000.
- Belichick is 183-171-5 on overs since the year 2000.
Patriots Offense
- The Patriots are scoring 23.5 points per game, good for 12th in the league heading into week 7.
- New England is 20th in the league in yards passing per game and 10th in yards rushing.
- Jones is expected to return from his ankle injury suffered against the Baltimore Ravens.
- RB Damien Harris left Week 5’s game against the Lions early and then missed the next contest against Cleveland. During those two games, Rhamondre Stevenson had 237 yards rushing and two touchdowns on 44 carries. Stevenson added six receptions on seven targets for 29 yards receiving, Per the Edge,
- When both Harris and Stevenson have been active, they’ve split the workload.
- It would not be a major surprise if Stevenson took the lead in this backfield this week while Harris is eased back into action.
- WR Jakobi Meyers is 18th in the league in target share (26.7%) and 13th in air yards share (38%).
- WRs DeVante Parker, Nelson Agholor and rookie Tyquan Thornton all have target shares between 13% and 15.5%. Parker has a much higher air yards share (28.3%) than either Agholor or Thornton to this point.
- TE Hunter Henry has had between four and seven targets over the last three games. TE Jonnu Smith missed Week 4 and 5 but returned to action last week against Cleveland where he had 61 yards receiving on two receptions.
Bears Defense
- The Bears have allowed 19.7 points per game, which is 11th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Bears have allowed the third most yards rushing per game and the 19th most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Chicago has given up the 28th most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Bears have allowed the 25th most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Bears Offense vs. Patriots Defense
Chicago has a bottom-tier offensive line. New England has a below-average front outside of premium edge rusher Matthew Judon. New England has a slight macro advantage against Chicago in the trenches, but Judon specifically, is a matchup problem for the Bears.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- Chicago is 2-3-1 against the spread this season.
- The Bears are 2-4 on overs this season.
- Justin Fields is 6-11-1 against the spread in his career.
- Fields is 6-12 on overs in his career.
- Matt Eberflus is 2-3-1 against the spread in his head coaching career.
- Eberflus is 2-4 on overs in his head coaching career.
Bears Offense
- The Bears are scoring 15.5 points per game, which is 31st in the league.
- Chicago is 32nd in the league in yards passing per game and second in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, since returning to action two weeks ago, David Montgomery has 27 carries while Khalil Herbert has 11.
- WR Darnell Mooney has at least five targets and 50 yards receiving in each of the last three games.
- WR Dante Pettis had 84 yards receiving and a touchdown on four receptions, off seven targets last week. He had one catch on the season entering last week’s game against the Commanders.
- TE Cole Kmet has had at least three targets in each of the last four games.
Patriots Defense
- The Patriots have allowed 18.8 points per game, which is seventh in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Patriots have given up the 17th most yards rushing per game and the 10th most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- New England has allowed the 19th most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Patriots have given up the 20th most yards receiving per game to tight ends this year.
This is What You’re Betting On in Patriots vs. Bears
A bet on the Patriots is always a bet on Belichick’s opponent-specific game planning. From a macro sense, we can expect Belichick to try and force Fields to beat the Patriots from the pocket. Due to the Bears' bottom-tier offensive line and pass catchers, that’s going to be a tall order for Chicago.
My biggest concern with a Patriots bet is the Bears have a scrappy defense, and New England still has a level of uncertainty at quarterback. Jones is expected to start and if he doesn't, I don't think we can treat Zappe as a reliable option at quarterback yet. Considering New England is more than a full-score favorite in this contest, that gives me some pause taking the Patriots' side here, as they have to decisively beat Chicago to cover.
A bet on the Bears is a bet on a scrappy defense coming off a long week. It’s also a bet on one of the most inconsistent offenses in the league. The Bears can run the ball effectively against most opponents, and Fields still has potential, but this offense has limited talent.
The biggest concern with a Bears bet is if Chicago struggles to effectively run the ball against New England and Fields is forced to beat the Patriots as a passer. That’s not really a knock on Fields, he just doesn’t have a lot to work with from a roster standpoint.
Awards Market Ramifications: Bill Belichick is always a Coach of the Year candidate.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m taking New England in all winner pools. I’ll have the Patriots ranked within the top three options behind Tampa Bay in confidence pools this week.
Spread Pool: I’m either going to take the Patriots or pass in this contest.
Survivor Pool: The Patriots will be the most popular pick in most survivor pools this week. I will take them in at least one of my entries.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 21-9
Props 2022: 19-12
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