Analysis
12/17/22
10 min read
NFL Week 15 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions For Every Game
Each remaining week of the 2022 NFL season features games played on Saturday, but in Week 15, the majority of the games are still taking place on Sunday. I write a summary paired with an in-depth betting preview for every game, every week of the NFL season. The game links below take you to those writeups. Monday's in-depth game preview will be added on Sunday.
Be sure to check out our injury report for the Week 15 slate.
Sunday
Eagles (12-1) at Bears (3-10)
- Opening Spread: Bears +9
- Opening Game Total: 48.5
- Opening Team Totals: Bears (19.75) Eagles (28.75)
- Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns, but always check for significant wind in late-season games in Chicago.
Line Report
- This line opened as Bears +9.
- This line has moved to Bears +8.5.
- This total opened at 48.5 points.
- This total remains at 48.5 points.
Bottom Line
The Eagles have the best roster in football, and they could conceivably dominate this contest in every area. If you’re betting on the Bears, you’re betting on a herculean effort from Justin Fields with the expectation the Eagles come out flat with a big game against Dallas on deck. I will take the Eagles ATS or pass here. This is a difficult game for me prop-wise, as I could see every main part of the Eagles’ offense hitting their over this week.
Steelers (5-8) at Panthers (5-8)
- Opening Spread: Panthers -2.5
- Opening Game Total: 38.5
- Opening Team Totals: Panthers (20.5) Steelers (18)
- Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
Line Report
- This line opened as Panthers -2.5.
- This line remains at Panthers -2.5.
- This total opened at 38.5-points.
- This total remains at 38.5-points.
Bottom Line
With Kenny Pickett sidelined, this has become a game between two similar teams. Under Steve Wilks, Carolina has become a run-centric offense relying on its rock-solid defense. Pittsburgh's offense and defense have a higher ceiling than the Panthers'. However, the Steelers have been uncharacteristically inconsistent for most of this season. If Pickett was in, I would be on the Steelers as a slight underdog in Carolina. I still lean that way with Mitch Trubisky.
Chiefs (10-3) at Texans (1-11-1)
- Opening Spread: Texans +14
- Opening Game Total: 49
- Opening Team Totals: Texans (17.5) Chiefs (31.5)
- Weather: Indoors
Line Report
- This line opened as Texans +14.
- This line has moved to Texans +13.5.
- This total opened at 49-points.
- This total has moved to 49.5-points.
Bottom Line
Patrick Mahomes is no longer the favorite in MVP betting markets. Given the amount of media coverage on the subject, there’s a good chance Mahomes knows this, and he’s not too happy about it. The Chiefs’ offense has a massive ceiling in this game, while their defense is in a plus matchup against a Texans' offense without Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins once again. Chiefs -14 is a lot to give up on the road, but I will either take that side or pass. If you’re in a survivor pool, you already know there is no such thing as a sure thing, but the Chiefs are as close as it gets in this matchup.
Cowboys (10-3) at Jaguars (5-8)
- Opening Spread: Jaguars +5
- Opening Game Total: 46.5
- Opening Team Totals: Jaguars (20.75) Cowboys (25.75)
- Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
Line Report
- This line opened as Jaguars +5.
- This line has moved to Jaguars +3.5.
- This total opened at 46.5 points.
- This total has moved to 47.5 points.
Bottom Line
After nearly losing to the Texans last week in Dallas, the Cowboys are simultaneously in a bounce-back spot while having a huge game against the Eagles next week. The Jaguars now have a narrow path to playing the Titans for the AFC South crown in the regular season finale.
Jacksonville is a promising young team that’s played some of its best football recently, but it should still be treated as an inconsistent team in a difficult matchup. On the Player Prop Happy Hour, we were collectively bullish on the Cowboys' offense. Josh Larky took Dak Prescott, Michael Gallup and Ezekiel Elliott overs while I took CeeDee Lamb’s over 67.5 yards receiving.
Falcons (5-8) at Saints (4-9)
Opening Spread: Saints -4.
Opening Game Total: 43.
Opening Team Totals: Saints (23.5), Falcons (19.5).
Weather: Indoors.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Saints -4.
- This line has moved to Saints -4.5.
- DraftKings Pick ’Em has the Saints -4.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Saints -3.5.
- This total opened at 43 points.
- This total has moved to 42.5 points.
Bottom Line
I was hoping the Saints would be a standard three-point home favorite in this game. That is, unfortunately, not the case as this matchup is now Saints -3.5. The hook makes me more likely to pass even though I have little confidence in Atlanta, and I’m not a Desmond Ridder guy. That said, I have taken Drake London’s over 39.5 yards receiving this week. If London does not see a usage spike in this contest, I don’t understand why the Falcons pivoted to Ridder while they are still alive in the NFC South race. Ben Wolby took Chris Olave’s over 59.5 yards receiving, which was the first prop bet I looked for on the Sunday slate.
Lions (6-7) at Jets (7-6)
Opening Spread: Jets -1.
Opening Game Total: 44.5.
Opening Team Totals: Jets (22.75), Lions (21.75).
Weather: Outdoors, mild wind.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Jets -1.
- This line moved up to Jets -2.5 and back down to Jets -.5.
- DraftKings Pick’ Em has the Jets -.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Jets as a pick’em.
- This total opened at 44.5 points.
- This total has moved to 44.5 points.
Bottom Line
Mike White is out with a rib injury, which means Zach Wilson is now in as the Jets' starting quarterback. I was interested in the Jets early this week, as New York has the type of fast and physical defense that has given Jared Goff problems throughout his career. The pivot to Wilson creates a layer of uncertainty I’d prefer to avoid in this matchup.
Cardinals (4-9) at Broncos (3-10)
Opening Spread: Broncos -1.
Opening Game Total: 39.
Opening Team Totals: Broncos (20), Cardinals (19).
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Broncos -1.
- This line has moved to Broncos -2.5.
- DraftKings Pick’ Em has the Broncos -2.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Broncos -2.5.
- This total opened at 39 points.
- This total has moved all the way down to 36.5 points.
Bottom Line
Russell Wilson and Kyler Murray will miss this contest, which makes this a Colt McCoy vs. Brett Rypien matchup. Week 15 has been my least favorite ATS week of the season to date, and this matchup exemplifies that. Denver’s pass rush against the Cardinals' injury-ravaged offensive line could ultimately decide this contest, but I simply cannot get to a bet on Rypien.
Patriots (7-6) at Raiders (5-8)
Opening Spread: Raiders -1.
Opening Game Total: 44.5.
Opening Team Totals: Raiders (22.75) Patriots (21.75).
Weather: Indoors.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Raiders -1.
- This line has moved to Raiders -1.5.
- DraftKings Pick’ Em has the Raiders +.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Raiders as a pick’em.
- This total opened at 44.5-points.
- This total remains at 44.5-points.
Bottom Line
We’re going to find out how the Raiders feel about their head coach Josh McDaniels in this matchup. A date with the Patriots always matters for Bill Belichick's disciples like McDaniels. Belichick’s former assistants have knocked him off in the past, including McDaniels when he was the head coach of the Broncos in 2009. I don’t have a lean in this game, but I am waiting on Nelson Agholor overs with the expectation they will open in the mid-30s.
Titans (7-6) at Chargers (7-6)
Opening Spread: Chargers -3.
Opening Game Total: 46.
Opening Team Totals: Chargers (24.5) Titans (21.5).
Weather: Hybrid venue, no concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Chargers -3.
- This line has moved to Chargers -2.5.
- DraftKings Pick’ Em has the Chargers -2.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Chargers -3.
- This total opened at 46-points.
- This total has moved to 45.5 points.
Bottom Line
This is an interesting matchup where the strength of each team's offense lines up with the weakness of the opposing defense. In the spirit of those advantages, I bet on Justin Herbert to breach 298.5 yards passing, and for Derrick Henry to go over 98.5 yards rushing. I wouldn’t call either of those numbers good betting numbers, but they are both inflated because of these advantageous matchups. I’ve also taken the Chargers -3 against the spread, and I intend to play a few same-game parlays in this contest.
Bengals (9-4) at Buccaneers (6-7)
Opening Spread: Buccaneers +3.5.
Opening Game Total: 43.
Opening Team Totals: Buccaneers (19.75) Bengals (23.25).
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Buccaneers +3.5.
- This line remains at Buccaneers +3.5.
- DraftKings Pick’ Em has the Buccaneers +3.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Buccaneers +3.5.
- This total opened at 43-points.
- This total has moved to 43.5 points.
Bottom Line
Joe Burrow is my kind of quarterback, and a date with Tom Brady is certainly compelling on the surface. Unfortunately, the Buccaneers' offense has been a disaster for most of this season, and they’ll have to be an entirely different football team to not get rolled by Burrow’s Bengals.
Early in the week, this looked like it would be the Ja’Marr Chase show, but both Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd are trending toward playing. That’s bad news for Tampa Bay’s injury-ravaged defense. I’m a little surprised this line hasn’t moved at all with Higgins and Boyd trending toward playing. Ultimately, I’m going to take the Bengals or pass.
Giants (7-5-1) at Commanders (7-5-1)
Bottom Line
This is a huge game for these NFC East rivals, as the loser more or less goes home. Despite their white-hot first half, I never bought into the Giants being a playoff team. There's a good chance Washington all but ends New York’s push toward the postseason. The Commanders have a significant trench advantage on defense and their offense has a higher ceiling than the Giants.
I have no play on this game against the spread, but I’ve bet on Daniel Jones to exceed 27.5 yards rushing along with Darius Slayton to beat 45.5 yards receiving. The Giants only have a few real assets on offense, and it would be malpractice to not try and get the most out of them in this kind of game.
Monday
Rams (4-9) at Packers (5-8)
Bottom Line
The Packers are coming off their bye to host the Rams coming off their improbable victory against the Raiders in Week 14. Green Bay isn’t dead in the NFC playoff picture, and the Packers have a number of paths to a convincing victory in this contest. I will take the Packers or pass against the spread.
Ryan’s Recent Betting Record
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 43-22
Props 2022: 43-29
WATCH MORE: Week 15's Best Prop Bets
