Analysis
11/11/22
7 min read
NFL Week 10 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Texans vs. Giants
Houston Texans (1-6-1) at New York Giants (6-2)
Opening Spread: Giants -6.5.
Opening Game Total: 38.5.
Opening Team Totals: Giants (22.5), Texans (16).
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Giants -6.5.
- This line has moved down to Giants -4.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Giants -6.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Giants -4.5.
- This total opened at 38.5 points.
- This total has moved up to 40.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Giants:
Out: WR Sterling Shepard, TE Daniel Bellinger, Edge Azeez Ojulari, CB Aaron Robinson, S Xavier McKinley.
Questionable: RT Evan Neal, Edge Oshane Ximines.
Texans:
Out: C Justin Britt, Edge Jonathan Greenard.
Questionable: RB Dameon Pierce, WR Brandin Cooks, WR Nico Collins, DT Maliek Collins.
The Giants Offense vs. Texans Defense
New York's offensive line has risen to about average territory as the season has progressed. That meager ascension has been primarily driven by Andrew Thomas’s high-end left tackle play. Houston has a bottom-tier defensive front, especially with edge Jonathan Greenard sidelined. New York has a mild advantage in the trenches.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- New York is 6-2 against the spread this season.
- The Giants are 2-6 on overs this season.
- Giants QB Daniel Jones is 25-21 against the spread in his career.
- Jones is 17-27-2 on overs in his career.
- Giants coach Brian Daboll is 6-2 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career.
- Daboll is 2-6 on overs in his NFL head coaching career.
Giants Offense
- New York is scoring 20.4 points per game, which is 22nd in the league.
- The Giants are 29th in the league in yards passing per game and fifth in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Jones is fourth among quarterbacks in yards rushing with 363.
- RB Saquon Barkley is third in the league in yards rushing with 779. Barkley is 12th among running backs in yards receiving.
- WR Darius Slayton has at least six targets in three of his last four games.
- WR Wan’Dale Robinson has only had one relevant game with eight targets, but the rookie’s skillset meshes well with the Giants' conservative passing attack.
Texans Defense
- Houston has allowed 22.9 points per game, which is 19th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Texans have allowed the most yards rushing and the 16th most yards receiving per game to running backs.
- The Texans have given up the 19th most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Houston has allowed the 13th most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Texans Offense vs. Giants Defense
The Giants' front four is firmly entrenched in the top 10. Houston’s offensive line is a fringe top-10 unit that is towards the top of the average tier. The Giants have an elite interior duo in Dexter Lawrence and Leonard Williams. The Giants' interior has an edge in this contest.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Texans are 4-3-1 against the spread this season.
- Houston is 4-4 on overs this season.
- Texans QB Davis Mills is 10-10-1 against the spread in his career.
- Mills is 11-10 on overs in his career.
- Texans coach Lovie Smith is 86-89-9 against the spread in his NFL head coaching career.
- Smith is 86-95-3 on overs in his NFL head coaching career.
Texans Offense
- Houston is scoring 16.6 points per game, which is 28th in the league.
- The Texans are 25th in the league in yards passing per game and 25th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, rookie RB Dameon Pierce is currently sixth in the league in yards rushing with 678 and he’s eighth among running backs in yards after contact. Pierce had no targets last week against the Eagles, but he’s had at least four in each of his previous four games.
- WR Brandin Cooks is having a below-average season by his standards, and he’s been publicly frustrated since the trade deadline. Cooks has at least five targets in every game he’s played this season.
- WR Nico Collins has exceeded 50 yards receiving in three of the six games he’s played.
- If Cooks or Collins miss this contest, that means role expansion for veteran WR Phillip Dorsett.
- TEs Brevin Jordan, O.J. Howard and Jordan Akins have each run between 73 and 87 routes this season.
Giants Defense
- New York has allowed 19.6 points per game, which is ninth in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Giants have allowed the seventh most yards rushing per game and the second-fewest yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- New York has given up the 26th most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Giants have allowed the sixth most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
This is What You’re Betting On in Giants vs. Texans
A bet on the Giants is a bet on an overachieving 6-2 team coming off their bye after getting destroyed in Seattle two weeks ago. New York has a limited offense that this new coaching staff has gotten the absolute most out of. The Giants' defense has been a consistently strong unit this year, but they are weak at linebacker, and they are down multiple starters in their secondary.
If you’re betting on the Giants, you are betting on Barkley and Jones putting together a strong effort on the ground while relying on New York’s front four to be the difference in this game. You have three main concerns with a Giants bet. The first is their below-average offense underwhelms against a scrappy Texans defense. The second is New York’s depleted secondary gives up a big play or two to Cooks. The third is Pierce is in a plus matchup against a struggling Giants' run defense.
A bet on the Texans is a bet on a talent-poor team that looks like they're competing for the first overall pick, not the playoffs. However, that also means they need a win to stay alive in the short term. Pierce has been genuinely outstanding at running back through the first half of the season. Mills has only breached 300 yards passing in one contest this season while failing to reach 200 yards passing in four of his eight games.
If you’re betting on the Texans, you don’t need a 300-yard game out of Mills but you need a solid outing. Houston’s defense has given up 20 or fewer points in four of their eight games this season. If you’re betting on the Texans, you are betting on another solid defensive effort out of this group. You have two core concerns as a Texans bettor. The first is that the Giants' front four derails this game. The second is Jones and/or Barkley pop off a big run or two that, more or less, generates the bulk of the Giants' points in this contest.
Awards Market Ramifications: Brian Daboll is a Coach of the Year contender. Saquon Barkley is a Comeback Player of the Year contender. Dameon Pierce is an Offensive Rookie of the Year contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will take the Texans in some of my winner pools, so I’ll have exposure to both teams in that format. I will be below consensus on this contest in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I bet the Texans +6.5 directly after Monday’s Betting the NFL episode. I’d still lean towards the Texans +4.5 in pick-every-game ATS pools.
Survivor Pool: The Giants are a semi-aggressive survivor pool option this week, though I expect I will avoid them.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 30-15
Props 2022: 31-16
WATCH MORE: Eddie George's Top-5 RBs Entering Week 10
