Analysis

Monotone’s Monday Night Football Player Prop for Saints vs. Buccaneers

Play Prop Bet for Saints vs. Buccaneers

Every week, this story will provide you with at least one bet I think you should take for Monday night football and an overview of how I see the matchup playing out.

Saints vs. Buccaneers Overview

The week’s primetime matchup is a grudge match between two NFL South teams that don’t like each other. The last time the Buccaneers and Saints met in Week 2, Tampa Bay ended up winning 20-10 in a game mostly remembered for the on-field altercation between Tom Brady, Marshon Lattimore and Mike Evans.

The Saints have had the reputation of beating Brady, and I think that narrative is still popular with the general public since this spread is only three points. Unlike the Saints, the Buccaneers are playing for playoffs, but there’s nothing New Orleans would like more than to play spoiler to Tampa Bay’s playoff hopes. 

The Saints are such a thorn in Brady’s side because of how they get consistent pressure on the quarterback. Throughout the years, the best way to slow down Brady has always been getting pressure in his face, and the Saints have been successful in that department. However, the Saints have struggled in that area this season. They’ve been a bit better in recent weeks, but it’s not been a good season.

Buccaneers offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs will miss this game, which definitely gives the Saints a better shot at pressuring the quarterback. After last week’s game against the 49ers, Christian McCaffrey said he thought the Saints were one of the best defenses in football, and he didn’t care what any metric had to say about it.

The last time these teams played, the Saints ran a completely different offense with Jameis Winston at quarterback, Mark Ingram starting at running back, and Michael Thomas still healthy. Andy Dalton hasn’t been impressive as the starter, but as bettors, we know what he’s capable of. We’ll see plenty of check-downs, and he will attempt to stretch the field a bit with Chris Olave, especially with injuries in the Buccaneers’ secondary. While I like Alvin Kamara tonight, the running back I want to target is on the other side of the ball. I think a lot of people want Rachaad White to have a bigger role, but it’s not time to forget about Leonard Fournette

Monday’s Bet to Make

Leonard Fournette over 2.5 Catches (-120 on DraftKings)

One of the biggest reasons I like this is because of Wirfs’ injury and knowing Brady’s tendency to get the ball quickly under pressure. In Week 2, Brady threw the ball 18 times and completed two passes to Fournette on four targets, with another 2 targets to White. While I see White’s role growing more and more in the rushing game, Fournette has established himself as a reliable check-down target for Brady.

The Saints are pretty solid at defending the run, and while they have been good against pass-catching backs, we saw McCaffrey grab four catches out of the backfield last week, with Elijah Mitchell and Kyle Juszczyk grabbing another four catches total. While it’s not an ideal matchup, the circumstances are aligning for a good night. 

Additionally, the Buccaneers might have a harder time attacking the Saints’ passing attack. They have been good this season, especially at slowing down the slot receivers and tight ends, two of Brady’s favorite spots to check down. Additionally, Lattimore is a bit banged up right now, but if he plays, he has a great history against Evans. I expect Fournette to play the third down and two-minute drill snaps, which should help him get to more than two catches.

WATCH: Does New Orleans Have Tampa Bay’s Number? 

 

Scroll to the Top