Analysis
11/29/22
15 min read
Matthew Hill's NFL Week 13 Fantasy Football Rankings
This article features my complete rankings for the week and blurbs highlighting players I have above or below consensus, according to how my rankings match up with the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR).
My initial rankings are made on my first impressions of the players based on matchups and recent trends. Look for updated rankings and additional player blurbs throughout the week as new information presents itself.
Top 20 Quarterbacks
Rank | Name | Team | Position | Opp | Kickoff | |
1 | Patrick Mahomes II | KC | QB | @ CIN | Sun 4:25pm ET | |
2 | Josh Allen | BUF | QB | @ NE | Thu 8:15pm ET | |
3 | Jalen Hurts | PHI | QB | vs TEN | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
4 | Joe Burrow | CIN | QB | vs KC | Sun 4:25pm ET | |
5 | Justin Herbert | LAC | QB | @ LV | Sun 4:25pm ET | |
6 | Trevor Lawrence | JAC | QB | @ DET | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
7 | Lamar Jackson | BAL | QB | vs DEN | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
8 | Tua Tagovailoa | MIA | QB | @ SF | Sun 4:05pm ET | |
9 | Dak Prescott | DAL | QB | vs IND | Sun 8:20pm ET | |
10 | Geno Smith | SEA | QB | @ LAR | Sun 4:05pm ET | |
11 | Justin Fields | CHI | QB | vs GB | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
12 | Derek Carr | LV | QB | vs LAC | Sun 4:25pm ET | |
13 | Deshaun Watson | CLE | QB | @ HOU | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
14 | Tom Brady | TB | QB | vs NO | Mon 8:15pm ET | |
15 | Kirk Cousins | MIN | QB | vs NYJ | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
16 | Jared Goff | DET | QB | vs JAC | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
17 | Jimmy Garoppolo | SF | QB | vs MIA | Sun 4:05pm ET | |
18 | Mike White | NYJ | QB | @ MIN | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
19 | Aaron Rodgers | GB | QB | @ CHI | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
20 | Kenny Pickett | PIT | QB | @ ATL | Sun 1:00pm ET |
- Joe Burrow has finished as the overall QB1 in three of the past six weeks. It sounds like Ja’Marr Chase could have played last week, which leads me to believe Chase will not be limited much in his return.
- Trevor Lawrence has finished as a QB1 in five of the last six weeks and gets Detroit in Week 13. He’s squarely in my top 10 and has top-five upside in a projected shootout.
- Derek Carr has now thrown multiple touchdown passes in four straight games and gets the Chargers at home. The game is projected as Week 13's third-highest total. His early ECR is several spots too low.
- I understand it's easy to label Mike White as a ‘flash in the pan” after his dismantling the Bears' defense, which saw him throw for 315 yards with three touchdowns. However, he has done it before. White threw for 405 yards and three touchdowns last year in a shootout with the Bengals. His other three starts last season were far less impressive (vs. New England, Indianapolis and Buffalo), but I am willing to chalk that up to him losing confidence against three of the league's top defenses. I like White’s chances to finish as a strong QB2 with QB1 upside against a Vikings defense that just allowed Mac Jones to pass for 382 yards.
- I was on board last week with the trendy Taylor Heinicke sleeper pick as he took on the vulnerable Falcons secondary. Unfortunately for my Heinicke/Terry McLaurin stacks, Washington seemed content to pound the ball to the tune of 37 combined carries for 176 yards. I see Pittsburgh as more likely to let Kenny Pickett attack the Falcons' defense this week.
Top 50 Running Backs
Rank | Name | Team | Position | Opp | Kickoff | |
1 | Austin Ekeler | LAC | RB | @ LV | Sun 4:25pm ET | |
2 | Nick Chubb | CLE | RB | @ HOU | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
3 | Josh Jacobs | LV | RB | vs LAC | Sun 4:25pm ET | |
4 | Derrick Henry | TEN | RB | @ PHI | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
5 | Rhamondre Stevenson | NE | RB | vs BUF | Thu 8:15pm ET | |
6 | Kenneth Walker III | SEA | RB | @ LAR | Sun 4:05pm ET | |
7 | Christian McCaffrey | SF | RB | vs MIA | Sun 4:05pm ET | |
8 | Jonathan Taylor | IND | RB | @ DAL | Sun 8:20pm ET | |
9 | Saquon Barkley | NYG | RB | vs WAS | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
10 | Dalvin Cook | MIN | RB | vs NYJ | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
11 | Aaron Jones | GB | RB | @ CHI | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
12 | Travis Etienne Jr. | JAC | RB | @ DET | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
13 | David Montgomery | CHI | RB | vs GB | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
14 | Joe Mixon | CIN | RB | vs KC | Sun 4:25pm ET | |
15 | Isiah Pacheco | KC | RB | @ CIN | Sun 4:25pm ET | |
16 | Alvin Kamara | NO | RB | @ TB | Mon 8:15pm ET | |
17 | Miles Sanders | PHI | RB | vs TEN | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
18 | Dameon Pierce | HOU | RB | vs CLE | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
19 | Jamaal Williams | DET | RB | vs JAC | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
20 | Tony Pollard | DAL | RB | vs IND | Sun 8:20pm ET | |
21 | Najee Harris | PIT | RB | @ ATL | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
22 | Jeff Wilson Jr. | MIA | RB | @ SF | Sun 4:05pm ET | |
23 | Brian Robinson Jr. | WAS | RB | @ NYG | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
24 | Devin Singletary | BUF | RB | @ NE | Thu 8:15pm ET | |
25 | Rachaad White | TB | RB | vs NO | Mon 8:15pm ET | |
26 | Ezekiel Elliott | DAL | RB | vs IND | Sun 8:20pm ET | |
27 | D'Andre Swift | DET | RB | vs JAC | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
28 | Antonio Gibson | WAS | RB | @ NYG | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
29 | Cordarrelle Patterson | ATL | RB | vs PIT | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
30 | AJ Dillon | GB | RB | @ CHI | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
31 | Kyren Williams | LAR | RB | vs SEA | Sun 4:05pm ET | |
32 | Gus Edwards | BAL | RB | vs DEN | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
33 | Leonard Fournette | TB | RB | vs NO | Mon 8:15pm ET | |
34 | Zonovan Knight | NYJ | RB | @ MIN | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
35 | Samaje Perine | CIN | RB | vs KC | Sun 4:25pm ET | |
36 | Latavius Murray | DEN | RB | @ BAL | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
37 | Kareem Hunt | CLE | RB | @ HOU | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
38 | Jerick McKinnon | KC | RB | @ CIN | Sun 4:25pm ET | |
39 | Jaylen Warren | PIT | RB | @ ATL | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
40 | Tyler Allgeier | ATL | RB | vs PIT | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
41 | Jordan Mason | SF | RB | vs MIA | Sun 4:05pm ET | |
42 | Cam Akers | LAR | RB | vs SEA | Sun 4:05pm ET | |
43 | Dontrell Hilliard | TEN | RB | @ PHI | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
44 | Ty Johnson | NYJ | RB | @ MIN | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
45 | Tyrion Davis-Price | SF | RB | vs MIA | Sun 4:05pm ET | |
46 | JaMycal Hasty | JAC | RB | @ DET | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
47 | James Cook | BUF | RB | @ NE | Thu 8:15pm ET | |
48 | Kenyan Drake | BAL | RB | vs DEN | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
49 | Kenneth Gainwell | PHI | RB | vs TEN | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
50 | Alexander Mattison | MIN | RB | vs NYJ | Sun 1:00pm ET |
- Rachaad White saw heavy volume in his first game without Leonard Fournette, logging 14 carries and catching all nine of his targets. New Orleans has given up more than 90 yards to Najee Harris, Kenyan Drake and Eno Benjamin in recent weeks. His early ECR of RB15 is several spots too low. *UPDATE* Leonard Fournette returned to full practices this week and is expected to play. Rachaad White slides from borderline RB1 status to more of a low-end RB/Flex until we see how touches are distributed going forward.
- Chicago looked rough in Justin Field’s absence. Even with the Bears only managing 10 points, David Montgomery was a volume-fueled, low-end RB2. Montgomery has combined for 37 touches the past two games, including six receptions, and will be another high-floor play this week against Green Bay's rush defense, which gave up 143 yards rushing to Miles Sanders.
- Jamaal Williams has not been targeted since Week 8 and has averaged 63 rushing yards during his past three games. We all know about his nose for the end zone, but if he is not scoring multiple touchdowns, he does not have the yardage totals or receiving role needed for boom weeks. Detroit/Jacksonville does have one of the week’s highest totals, so Williams should get the opportunity for a multi-score game. I just feel his early ECR as a borderline RB1 is a little high.
- Isiah Pacheco’s early consensus ranking of RB22 does not make sense to me. Pacheco has seen his snap share rise from 22% in Week 9 to 56% last week. He has become the preferred option near the goal line the past three weeks including a league-high 12 in Week 12, with five coming within the five-yard-line. At $5,700 on Draftkings, rostering Pacheco is an inexpensive way to get plenty of touches in the slate’s highest total game.
- Kyren Williams, not Cam Akers, seemed to be the primary benefactor of Darrell Henderson’s vacated touches. Williams out-touched Akers 14 to eight and was the preferred back in passing situations. Williams has seen his touches increase each of the past three weeks (four, eight, 14). While a committee approach should remain, it seems likely Williams will be heading the committee in a plus matchup vs Seattle.
Top 65 Wide Receivers
Rank | Name | Team | Position | Opp | Kickoff | |
1 | Davante Adams | LV | WR | vs LAC | Sun 4:25pm ET | |
2 | Tyreek Hill | MIA | WR | @ SF | Sun 4:05pm ET | |
3 | Justin Jefferson | MIN | WR | vs NYJ | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
4 | Stefon Diggs | BUF | WR | @ NE | Thu 8:15pm ET | |
5 | CeeDee Lamb | DAL | WR | vs IND | Sun 8:20pm ET | |
6 | Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET | WR | vs JAC | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
7 | A.J. Brown | PHI | WR | vs TEN | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
8 | Jaylen Waddle | MIA | WR | @ SF | Sun 4:05pm ET | |
9 | Chris Godwin | TB | WR | vs NO | Mon 8:15pm ET | |
10 | Tee Higgins | CIN | WR | vs KC | Sun 4:25pm ET | |
11 | Ja'Marr Chase | CIN | WR | vs KC | Sun 4:25pm ET | |
12 | Amari Cooper | CLE | WR | @ HOU | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
13 | Keenan Allen | LAC | WR | @ LV | Sun 4:25pm ET | |
14 | Christian Kirk | JAC | WR | @ DET | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
15 | Terry McLaurin | WAS | WR | @ NYG | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
16 | DK Metcalf | SEA | WR | @ LAR | Sun 4:05pm ET | |
17 | Garrett Wilson | NYJ | WR | @ MIN | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
18 | Mike Evans | TB | WR | vs NO | Mon 8:15pm ET | |
19 | Chris Olave | NO | WR | @ TB | Mon 8:15pm ET | |
20 | Tyler Lockett | SEA | WR | @ LAR | Sun 4:05pm ET | |
21 | Brandon Aiyuk | SF | WR | vs MIA | Sun 4:05pm ET | |
22 | Christian Watson | GB | WR | @ CHI | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
23 | Michael Pittman Jr. | IND | WR | @ DAL | Sun 8:20pm ET | |
24 | DeVonta Smith | PHI | WR | vs TEN | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
25 | Joshua Palmer | LAC | WR | @ LV | Sun 4:25pm ET | |
26 | Courtland Sutton | DEN | WR | @ BAL | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
27 | JuJu Smith-Schuster | KC | WR | @ CIN | Sun 4:25pm ET | |
28 | Deebo Samuel | SF | WR | vs MIA | Sun 4:05pm ET | |
29 | Diontae Johnson | PIT | WR | @ ATL | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
30 | Gabe Davis | BUF | WR | @ NE | Thu 8:15pm ET | |
31 | George Pickens | PIT | WR | @ ATL | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
32 | Treylon Burks | TEN | WR | @ PHI | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
33 | Jakobi Meyers | NE | WR | vs BUF | Thu 8:15pm ET | |
34 | Zay Jones | JAC | WR | @ DET | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
35 | Nico Collins | HOU | WR | vs CLE | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
36 | Allen Lazard | GB | WR | @ CHI | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
37 | Darius Slayton | NYG | WR | vs WAS | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
38 | Tyler Boyd | CIN | WR | vs KC | Sun 4:25pm ET | |
39 | Adam Thielen | MIN | WR | vs NYJ | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
40 | Drake London | ATL | WR | vs PIT | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
41 | Donovan Peoples-Jones | CLE | WR | @ HOU | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
42 | Curtis Samuel | WAS | WR | @ NYG | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
43 | Van Jefferson | LAR | WR | vs SEA | Sun 4:05pm ET | |
44 | Chase Claypool | CHI | WR | vs GB | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
45 | Parris Campbell | IND | WR | @ DAL | Sun 8:20pm ET | |
46 | Michael Gallup | DAL | WR | vs IND | Sun 8:20pm ET | |
47 | Mack Hollins | LV | WR | vs LAC | Sun 4:25pm ET | |
48 | Isaiah McKenzie | BUF | WR | @ NE | Thu 8:15pm ET | |
49 | Marquez Valdes-Scantling | KC | WR | @ CIN | Sun 4:25pm ET | |
50 | Olamide Zaccheaus | ATL | WR | vs PIT | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
51 | Chris Moore | HOU | WR | vs CLE | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
52 | Elijah Moore | NYJ | WR | @ MIN | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
53 | DeAndre Carter | LAC | WR | @ LV | Sun 4:25pm ET | |
54 | Devin Duvernay | BAL | WR | vs DEN | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
55 | Jarvis Landry | NO | WR | @ TB | Mon 8:15pm ET | |
56 | Jahan Dotson | WAS | WR | @ NYG | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
57 | Alec Pierce | IND | WR | @ DAL | Sun 8:20pm ET | |
58 | Demarcus Robinson | BAL | WR | vs DEN | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
59 | Julio Jones | TB | WR | vs NO | Mon 8:15pm ET | |
60 | Kendall Hinton | DEN | WR | @ BAL | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
61 | Robert Woods | TEN | WR | @ PHI | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
62 | Skyy Moore | KC | WR | @ CIN | Sun 4:25pm ET | |
63 | D.J. Chark Jr. | DET | WR | vs JAC | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
64 | Corey Davis | NYJ | WR | @ MIN | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
65 | DeVante Parker | NE | WR | vs BUF | Thu 8:15pm ET |
- Zay Jones has 19 receptions on 28 targets in the past two games and gets Detroit next. Christian Kirk has received the headlines, but Jones has been nearly as impressive, bringing in at least five catches in six of 10 games.
- No fantasy manager is excited to start anyone in a Broncos uniform, but with Jerry Jeudy likely out this week, Denver’s passing attack seems like it could be consolidated. Kendall Hinton has snap shares of 97, 87 and 90% in the past three games and saw nine targets last week. Courtland Sutton has been a high-floor play, bringing in roughly five receptions each of the past three weeks for yardage totals of 66, 80 and 75. Denver will need to attack Baltimore through the air if they are going to compete with the Ravens, making Sutton a low-end WR2 and Hinton a deep-league flex.
- At some point, the fantasy community needs to accept Nico Collins has surpassed Brandin Cooks as Houston’s WR1. In the past three weeks, Collins has more targets (26 to 18) and receptions (16 to 12) than Cooks. The ceilings are capped for both in Houston’s offense, but Collins continues to be the better value and deserving of a higher ranking. *UPDATE* Brandin Cooks was surprisingly declared out on Friday, bumping Nico Collins into solid WR3 status and putting Chis Moore on the deep Flex radar.
- Treylon Burks seems poised to build off of his breakout performance. In the past two weeks, he has 181 yards on 11 receptions and gets an Eagles defense that has given up 313 yards on 18 receptions to opposing WR1’s the past three weeks. His WR36 ECR seems like his floor.
- I get the Rams are a bit of a mess right now but so is Seattle's defense. Van Jefferson has stepped into the role of the go-to receiver with Cooper Kupp and Allen Robinson gone. However, the overall dysfunction of the Rams' offense has him undervalued, especially this week. Jefferson turned his seven targets into three catches for 29 yards and a score in Week 12. While the yardage total was not impressive, the seven targets are encouraging enough to have him ranked several spots above consensus.
- Olamide Zaccheaus saw eight targets in Week 12, which was double what Drake London received in the low-volume Falcon passing attack. Zaccheaus turned those eight targets into five receptions for 91 yards. While I understand no one is excited to start a Falcons receiver, Zaccheus is locked into a high snap share, has some value in deep leagues and has a premium matchup against Pittsburgh. His early ECR is several spots too low.
- Elijah Moore only saw two targets in New York’s Week 12 blowout win, but he made them count. Moore turned his two targets into two receptions for 64 yards and a score. His ECR of WR60 is too low, as is his $3,700 price tag of Draftkings. This seems like an instance of wanting to get ahead of the breakout instead of reacting to it. I have him well ahead of consensus in what could be a high-scoring game at Minnesota.
- While Amari Cooper and Donovan Peoples-Jones should be popular plays in Deshaun Watson’s return to the field (and return to Houston), David Bell’s expanding role has been largely overlooked. After totaling 11 targets through Week 8, Bell now has at least five targets each of the past three weeks. He is ranked just outside my top 65. If you roster him, you probably are not playing him unless you're desperate, but he is worth keeping an eye on to see if his role continues to grow.
Top 25 Tight Ends
Rank | Name | Team | Position | Opp | Kickoff | |
1 | Travis Kelce | KC | TE | @ CIN | Sun 4:25pm ET | |
2 | Mark Andrews | BAL | TE | vs DEN | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
3 | T.J. Hockenson | MIN | TE | vs NYJ | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
4 | Pat Freiermuth | PIT | TE | @ ATL | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
5 | George Kittle | SF | TE | vs MIA | Sun 4:05pm ET | |
6 | Dalton Schultz | DAL | TE | vs IND | Sun 8:20pm ET | |
7 | Hayden Hurst | CIN | TE | vs KC | Sun 4:25pm ET | |
8 | Gerald Everett | LAC | TE | @ LV | Sun 4:25pm ET | |
9 | Tyler Higbee | LAR | TE | vs SEA | Sun 4:05pm ET | |
10 | Dawson Knox | BUF | TE | @ NE | Thu 8:15pm ET | |
11 | Foster Moreau | LV | TE | vs LAC | Sun 4:25pm ET | |
12 | Cole Kmet | CHI | TE | vs GB | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
13 | Greg Dulcich | DEN | TE | @ BAL | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
14 | Evan Engram | JAC | TE | @ DET | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
15 | Juwan Johnson | NO | TE | @ TB | Mon 8:15pm ET | |
16 | Tyler Conklin | NYJ | TE | @ MIN | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
17 | Robert Tonyan | GB | TE | @ CHI | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
18 | Logan Thomas | WAS | TE | @ NYG | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
19 | Hunter Henry | NE | TE | vs BUF | Thu 8:15pm ET | |
20 | Taysom Hill | NO | TE | @ TB | Mon 8:15pm ET | |
21 | Jordan Akins | HOU | TE | vs CLE | Sun 1:00pm ET | |
22 | Harrison Bryant | CLE | TE | @ HOU | Sun 1:00pm ET |
- David Njoku saw his snaps increase from 35% in his first week back from injury to 80% in Week 12. He saw seven targets and brought in five with a touchdown. Look for him to be a focal point in Watson’s return, making him a locked-in TE1 with a top-three upside. *UPDATE* Njoku has been declared out with a knee injury. Harrison Bryant becomes a low-end TE2 and an interesting, low-price DFS dart throw.
- In the past three weeks, Foster Moreau has finished as a top-8 overall tight end twice and has the Chargers, in a game with a 51-point total, on tap. Moreau is a top-10 option this week.
- Hayden Hurst has finished as a TE2 or better each of the past five weeks. He saw nine targets last week and should play a key role in the Chiefs/Bengals rematch.
- Jordan Akins has quietly turned in a pair of top-9 tight end finishes the past three weeks and Houston should have to air it out often in a game where they are seven-point underdogs.