Analysis
10/9/22
8 min read
Matchups Week 5: Raiders at Chiefs
Monday Night Football: Las Vegas Raiders (1-3) at Kansas City Chiefs (3-1)
Opening Spread: Chiefs -7.
Opening Game Total: 51.
Team Totals: Chiefs (29), Raiders (22).
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Chiefs -7.
- This line moved up to Chiefs -7.5 for a short time; now it’s Chiefs -6.5 as of Saturday night.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Chiefs -7.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Chiefs -7.
- This total opened at 51 points.
- This total moved slightly up to 51.5 points as of Saturday night.
Notable Injuries
Chiefs: Out: K Harrison Butker. Questionable: WR JuJu Smith-Schuster, RG Trey Smith.
Raiders: Out: LB Jayon Brown.
The Chiefs Offense vs. the Raiders Defense
Kansas City has a top-10 caliber offensive line, while the Raiders have a fringe top-10 front four. The Raiders front is headlined by their edge duo of Chandler Jones and Maxx Crosby. From a macro sense, this is a relative draw in the trenches, but the Raiders' edge duo is a challenge for just about any team, including the Chiefs.
Betting Notes
- The Chiefs are 2-2 against the spread this season.
- The Chiefs are 2-2 on overs this season.
Chiefs Offense
- The Chiefs are scoring 32.3 points per game, good for second in the league.
- Kansas City has the eighth most yards passing per game and the 11th most yards rushing.
- Patrick Mahomes has breached 300 yards passing in three of his last four matchups with the Raiders.
- Per TruMedia, Clyde Edwards-Helaire is 24th among running backs in yards rushing (208), and he’s sixth in yards receiving (117).
- None of the Chiefs' role players at wide receiver has really broken through yet. JuJu Smith-Schuster leads the group in yards receiving (224), which is 39th in the league. Smith-Schuster has a 19.3% target share and a 22% air yards share. Smith-Schuster has seen 91 snaps on the perimeter and 80 in the slot.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling is 65th in the league in yards receiving (168). He’s seen 121 snaps on the perimeter and 67 in the slot.
- Travis Kelce is 11th in the league in yards receiving (322), he’s ninth in receptions (26), and he’s tied for third in receiving touchdowns (3). Kelce has a 24.3% target share and a 24.8% air yards share. Kelce has seen 75 snaps as an inline tight end, 57 on the perimeter, and 72 in the slot.
- Travis Kelce has breached 100 yards receiving in three of his last four matchups with the Raiders.
Raiders Defense
- Per The Edge, the Raiders have allowed the 21st most yards rushing and the fourth most yards receiving to running backs this year.
- Las Vegas has allowed the 15th most yards receiving on the 17th most receptions to wide receivers this season.
- Vegas has given up the fourth most PPR points to slot receivers this year.
- The Raiders have allowed the 12th most yards receiving on the ninth most receptions to tight ends this season.
- The Raiders have given up the ninth most PPR points to inline tight ends and the 11th most to tight ends lined up in the slot.
The Raiders Offense vs. the Chiefs Defense
The Chiefs have a fringe top-ten front four, while the Raiders have a below-average offensive line. Kansas City’s front has a trench advantage in this contest.
Betting Notes
- The Raiders are 1-3 against the spread this season.
- The Raiders are 2-1-1 on overs this season.
Raiders Offense
- The Raiders are scoring 24 points per game, which is tenth in the league.
- Las Vegas has the 13th most yards passing per game and the 14th most yards rushing.
- Per TruMedia, Josh Jacobs is fifth among running backs in yards rushing with 336 yards. Jacobs is seventh in the league in carries (70) and tied for second in red zone carries (15). Jacobs has a 9% target share.
- Davante Adams has a massive role as he’s second in the league in targets (47), the leader in endzone targets (8), fourth in target share (32.4%), and 14th in air yard share (36.7%). Adams is ninth in the league in receptions (26), 15th in yards receiving (290), and tied for third in receiving touchdowns (3). Adams has seen 182 snaps on the perimeter and 64 in the slot.
- Hunter Renfrow has missed each of the last two games. But he had 16 targets over the first two games. Renfrow has seen 79 of his 87 snaps out of the slot this season.
- Renfrow had 20 total receptions in his two games against the Chiefs last season.
- Mack Hollins has a range of five to 11 targets over the last three games.
- Darren Waller has a 16.6% target share and a 22.9% air yards share. Waller has seen 44 snaps as an inline tight end, 33 on the perimeter, and 107 in the slot.
Chiefs Defense
- Per The Edge, the Chiefs have allowed the fewest yards rushing and the most yards receiving to running backs this year.
- Kansas City has allowed the 12th most yards receiving on the third most receptions to wide receivers this year.
- Kansas City has given up the eighth most PPR points to perimeter receivers and the seventh most PPR points to slot receivers this season.
- The Chiefs have allowed the 14th most yards receiving on the tenth most receptions to tight ends this year.
- Kansas City has given up the fourth most PPR points to tight ends lined up in the slot.
This is What You’re Betting On in Chiefs vs. Raiders
A bet on the Chiefs is always a bet on Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. Kansas City bounced back in a big way against the Buccaneers last Sunday night, jumping out to an early lead and never looking back on their way to a 41-31 win.
You’re less worried about letdowns with a team like the Chiefs, but their offense is coming off a grade-A performance in Tampa Bay. Kansas City’s front four has a trench advantage against a below-average Raiders offensive line. There’s a realistic path that the Chiefs simply outscore the Raiders, but there’s also a genuine chance that their pass rush plays a big role in this game. The biggest concern with a Chiefs bet is that the Raiders are a talented offense that has lost three one-score games to 2021 playoff teams.
A bet on the Raiders is a bet on Derek Carr’s offense stepping up against their division rivals in Kansas City. With Renfrow off the injury report, one could argue that this is the best group of pass catchers that Carr has ever had. Las Vegas is also still in desperation mode at 1-3, with their bye looming in Week 6. This is a pull out all the stops spot for Josh McDaniels’ Raiders. Apart from the apparent concern you have betting against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, the Chiefs pass rush could be a real difference-maker in this contest.
I consider McDaniels to be an opponent-specific game planner. So part of my Raiders +7.5 bet was made with the expectation that McDaniels is fully aware of that line play disparity and that he’ll help his offensive line out through play calling. The Chiefs blew out the Raiders both times they played last season. But in 2020, the Raiders beat them 40-32 in Kansas City and lost 35-31 in their other matchup.
Raiders vs. Chiefs Pool Picks
Awards Market Ramifications: Patrick Mahomes is an MVP contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I will take the Chiefs in winner pools, but the Raiders are an aggressive differentiator option in that format. I will rank the Chiefs adjacent to the Jaguars in my confidence pool rankings, which I expect is a little lower than consensus.
Spread Pool: I took the Raiders at +7.5 earlier this week because I thought that was too high. Now that it’s Chiefs -6.5, I have no interest in betting on either side of that line.
Survivor: In a week with several significant home favorites, I’ll pass on the Chiefs in survivor pools. That said, they warrant consideration.
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