Analysis

1/23/23

21 min read

Important Stats to Know From Each Divisional Round Matchup

By Nic Bodiford

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Welcome to the NFL playoffs recap series. Each week, The 33rd Team’s Nic Bodiford will break down the results of the most recent playoff round, offering thoughts for fans, fantasy football players and sports bettors. For the remaining teams in the hunt for the Super Bowl, Bodiford will focus on actionable data for the game(s) to come. For those who have been eliminated, Bodiford will offer brief thoughts on the implications for 2023 and beyond.

Chiefs 27, Jaguars 20

Summary

• Per Ryan Reynolds’ Saturday line report, Kansas City opened as -8.5-point favorites and closed as -9.5 but failed to cover the spread
• The game total opened and remained at 51.5 points. The under cashed comfortably at 47.0 points
• Jacksonville converted seven-of-13 third downs
• Kansas City converted six-of-12 third downs
• The Jaguars successfully kicked field goals on two-of-six fourth downs and punted on four-of-six
• The Chiefs also successfully kicked field goals on two-of-six fourth downs and punted on four-of-six
• Kansas City wide receiver Mecole Hardman (abdomen) was notably inactive

Jacksonville Jaguars

• Second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence completed 24-of-39 pass attempts for 217 yards passing, one touchdown and one interception, leaving much to be desired
• His 39 pass attempts rank No. 2 among divisional-round quarterbacks
• The table below ranks in parentheses Lawrence’s passing data among divisional-round quarterbacks

• Lawrence ran for 26 yards on just three attempts, flashing the dual-threat ability that should elevate his 2023 fantasy football and rushing-line betting prospects
• The 33rd Team analyst Jordan Vanek correctly called wide receiver Christian Kirk the projected top pass catcher
• He caught seven-of-14 targets for 52 yards receiving and one touchdown, sprinkling an 18-yard rush on top
• His 14 targets ranked No. 2 among divisional-round pass catchers
• The table below ranks in parentheses Kirk’s receiving data among 18 divisional-round wide receivers with at least three targets. Kirk was temporarily forced from the game after suffering a nonspecific knee injury, but he returned quickly

• Kirk produced career-bests in targets (113), receptions (84), yards receiving (1,108) and touchdowns receiving (eight). His 21.5% targets per route run rate are 0.1% under his career best, and his 1.79 yards per route run trailed his top rate by 0.02
• While Kirk will benefit from the presence of Calvin Ridley, who was acquired midseason but is still serving an indefinite suspension, as defenses focus on Ridley's alpha skill set, Kirk may experience difficulty in matching or besting his counting statistics. Ridley is a bonafide ball hog 
• Wide receiver Zay Jones continued his big-play ways, securing five-of-seven targets for 83 yards. His 37-yard catch ranks No. 3 among 18 divisional-round wide receivers with at least three targets. Though Jones brings inherent volatility in his downfield role, the sixth-year receiver is returning adequate value on his three-year, $24 million deal signed this offseason
• Special teamer/wide receiver Jamal Agnew’s most notable contribution was his game-sealing fumble
• Tight end Evan Engram’s renaissance season ended in a bummer. He had just five catches on six targets for 31 yards receiving. His 766 yards receiving were a career-high as was his 74.5% catch rate
• Coach Doug Pederson completed a historic turnaround after Urban Meyer’s 2021 failure. Pederson’s deployment of dual-threat running back Travis Etienne was baffling though
• The table below compares Etienne and No. 2 running back JaMycal Hasty’s passing game usage during the last six weeks of the season 

• Sending Etienne out on early-down routes is a positive, but his passing-down role should have been much larger. Hasty’s snap-siphoning in the red zone is also significant
• Etienne remained efficient on the ground, taking 10 rush attempts for 62 yards and one touchdown. 
• The table below ranks in parentheses Etienne’s rushing data among 15 divisional-round running backs with at least five rush attempts

• Etienne missed his 2021 rookie season with a Lisfranc injury but proved to be one of the league’s best rushers in 2022
• The table below ranks in parentheses Etienne’s regular-season rushing data among 55 NFL running backs with at least 75 rush attempts

• The table below ranks in parentheses Jacksonville’s defensive statistics among divisional-round teams

Kansas City Chiefs

• Kansas City escaped with a victory despite quarterback Patrick Mahomes suffering the dreaded high-ankle sprain late in the first quarter. Mahomes missed time in the second quarter but returned in the second half
• No. 2 quarterback Chad Henne totaled 13 offensive snaps, seven dropbacks and seven pass attempts
• Mahomes’ throttled down his target depth and still produced.  The table below ranks in parentheses Mahomes’ passing data among divisional-round quarterbacks. Henne’s passing data and Mahomes' regular-season passing data are included for reference

• Mahomes had just three rush attempts for eight yards after averaging 3.59 rush attempts and 21.06 yards rushing per game
• Mahomes is likely to play next week, though his mobility could be badly impacted
• Logic dictated tight end Travis Kelce had a chance to produce a career-best performance against Jacksonville's inept linebacking corps. Well, Kelce hauled in 14 receptions, setting the NFL’s postseason single-game tight end receptions record. 

Oh, hey @The33rdTeamFB. Travis Kelce just set the record for most tight end receptions in a postseason game (14). I guess I aimed low… https://t.co/PdeRnPT2zC pic.twitter.com/iELKJDdJkp

— Nic Bodiford (@NicBodifordNFL) January 22, 2023

• Kelce led the position in all major counting statistics with 17 targets, 14 receptions, 98 yards receiving and two touchdowns
• Both Kelce’s 17 targets and 14 receptions lead all divisional-round pass catchers
• The table below ranks in parentheses Kelce’s receiving data among divisional-round tight ends with at least three targets.

• Fellow tight end Noah Gray caught one-of-two targets for a 27-yard reception
• Kansas City’s wide receiver corps produced pedestrian counting statistics but enigmatic wide receiver Kadarius Toney maintained absurdly elite efficiency
• The table below ranks Toney’s per-route efficiency metrics among 18 divisional-round wide receivers with at least three targets 

• Toney’s 12 routes run were notably higher than the 8.25 he averaged in Weeks 15-18 after returning from a hamstring strain. He led the wide receiver corps in all major counting statistics with seven targets, five receptions and 36 yards receiving. Toney also had a 14-yard rush
• Coach Andy Reid confusingly kept Toney off the field when the team was in the green zone
• Three-of-four remaining wide receivers, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Justin Watson and Skyy Moore, produced a 100.0% catch rate on two-or-fewer targets apiece
• With Mahomes ailing, Jerick McKinnon received a season-high 12 rush attempts but ran for just 25 yards
• Though McKinnon ran 19 routes, he failed to earn a target
• Rookie running back Isiah Pacheco caught one-of-one targets for six yards on 11 routes run
• Pacheco thrashed his way to an efficient outing. The table below ranks in parentheses Pacecho’s rushing data among divisional-round running backs with at least five rush attempts

• The table below ranks in parentheses Kansas City’s defensive statistics among divisional-round teams

• Cincinnati Bengals running back Joe Mixon should have a field day in the AFC Championship game

Eagles 38, Giants 7 

Summary

• Philadelphia opened as -7.0-point home favorites and closed at -7.5 while soaring past the spread
• The game total opened with a 48.0-point over/under and closed at 47.5. The under cashed with nearly a field goal to spare
• New York converted five-of-13 third downs
• Philadelphia amazingly converted 10-of-14 third downs
• The Giants converted one-of-three attempts on fourth down and punted on five more fourth downs
• The Eagles punted on four-of-five fourth downs, successfully attempting a field goal on the remaining down
• Eagles slot cornerback Avonte Maddox (turf toe) was inactive

New York Giants

• Daniel Jones’ dream season ended in a rough fashion. Jones’ 67.2% regular-season completion rate was seventh-best among NFL quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts. Jones’ divisional-round 55.6% completion rate is a night-and-day failure 
• Jones threw for just 135 yards and one interception against the Eagles
• Jones’ 24 yards rushing on six attempts fell short of his regular-season 7.50 rush attempts and 44.25 yards rushing per game averages
• Coach Brian Daboll smartly schemed his passing game around slot receiver Richie James Jr., with Maddox shelved but C.J. Gardner-Johnson is no slouch
• James Jr. caught seven-of-q0 targets for 51 scoreless yards. His hefty 32.3% targets per route run paced New York pass catchers by 7.3%
• The rest of the wide receiver corps combined for just 24 yards receiving
• Darius Slayton’s regular-season 17.8% targets per route run tied his career-high, and his 1.81 yards per route run is 0.24 yards better than any prior season. Curiously, Slayton’s 12.45-yard aDOT is the lowest of his career, but it led to career-highs in both yards per reception (15.74) and yards after catch per reception (5.70)
• During Isaiah Hodgins’ 10 games with New York, he finished second on the team in receptions (33), third in targets (42), third in receiving yards (351) and tied for first in touchdowns receiving (four)
• Rookie tight end Daniel Bellinger had just one reception on three targets for four yards on Saturday. His tumultuous season peaked against the Chicago Bears (37.5% targets per route run and 2.88 yards per route run) in Week 4. His fractured eye socket and damaged septum in Week 7 cost him some time, but he remains an intriguing prospect
• Saquon Barkley ripped off a red-hot 6.78 yards per rush attempt, third-best in the divisional round among running backs with at least five rush attempts. His 39-yard longest rushing gain tied Pacheco for the week-high
• Daboll funneled the offense through Barkley in Weeks 1-10, culminating in a 35-rush attempt outing against the Houston Texans. The following week, vs. the Detroit Lions, Barkley totaled just 15 rush attempts and would not see more than 18 in a game from there on out
• The table below ranks in parentheses Barkley’s Weeks 1-10 rushing data among NFL running backs with at least 25 rush attempts and Barkley’s regular-season rushing data among NFL running backs with at least 75 rush attempts

• Part of Barkley’s usage transition included an uptick in passing-game involvement. The table below reflects the change

• Barkley’s 20.2% targets per route run rank 26th among 51 NFL running backs with at least 25 targets and his 0.90 yards per route run ranked 35
• No. 2 running back Matt Breida averaged 4.11 yards per rush attempt
• New York’s defensive front was truck-sticked to the tune of 6.09 yards 
• The Giants' flaccid pass rush produced just a 26.9% quarterback pressure rate, the second worst on the week

Philadelphia Eagles

• Jalen Hurts continued his unstoppable warpath despite his No. 1 wide receiver A.J. Brown potentially playing through injury. The tables below rank in parentheses Hurts’ passing and rushing data among divisional-round quarterbacks

• Playing hobbled, Brown flopped (three receptions on six targets for 22 yards receiving) while No. 2 wide receiver DeVonta Smith (six receptions on 10 targets for 61 yards receiving and one touchdown) and tight end Dallas Goedert (five receptions on five targets for 58 yards receiving and one touchdown) shined
• The table below ranks in parentheses Smith’s receiving data among 18 divisional-round wide receivers with at least three targets and Goedert’s receiving data among 12 divisional-round tight ends with at least two targets

• Philadelphia’s three-man backfield ran roughshod over New York. The table below ranks in parentheses their rushing data among 15 divisional-round running backs with at least five rush attempts

• Philadelphia’s 45.7% quarterback pressure rate topped the divisional-round charts, as did their five sacks
• The Eagles' six passes defended ranked No. 2, but their 5.90 yards per rush attempt allowed was the third highest. The latter has been an issue all year as the defense averaged 4.64 yards per rush attempt allowed during the regular season. San Francisco’s dynamic rushing attack will exploit this weakness next weekend

Bengals 27, Bills 10

Summary 

• Per Ryan Reynolds’ Sunday line report, Buffalo opened as -4.0-point home favorites and closed at -5.5. They resoundingly failed to cover the spread
• The total opened with a 50.0-point over/under and inched up to 50.5. The under cashed easily
• Cincinnati converted six-of-10 third downs
• Buffalo converted just four-of-12 third downs
• On five fourth downs, Cincinnati successfully kicked a pair of field goals, punted twice and produced one false start
• On eight fourth downs, Buffalo converted two-of-three attempts, successfully kicked a field goal and punted the four remaining possessions
• Cincinnati was without left tackle Jonah Williams, right tackle La’el Collins (injured reserve) and right guard Alex Cappa
• Buffalo was without safety Micah Hyde

Cincinnati Bengals

• Joe Burrow picked Buffalo apart, completing 23-of-36 pass attempts for 242 yards passing and two touchdowns
• The offensive line was without three starters at kickoff, and center Ted Karras played through a knee injury suffered in the second quarter. Burrow miraculously took just one sack
• The table below ranks in parentheses Burrow’s passing data among divisional-round quarterbacks

• Burrow’s 21-yard rush beat all quarterbacks by nine yards
• Wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase produced a team-long 28-yard reception en route to five receptions on eight targets, 61 yards receiving, one touchdown and a three-yard rush attempt to boot
• Hayden Hurst had a highlight-reel day, catching five-of-six targets for 59 yards receiving and one touchdown receiving

Hayden Hurd-st right folks 😬

(🎥: @nfl) | #RuleTheJungle

pic.twitter.com/GI56bV2GDc

— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) January 22, 2023

• The table below ranks in parentheses Chase’s receiving data among 18 wide receivers with at least three targets, and Hurst’s receiving data among 12 divisional-round tight ends with at least two targets

• Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd combined for just six targets, four receptions and 51 yards receiving
• Mixon snowplowed his way to a top-two 105 yards rushing total and a top-five 3.30 yards after contact per rush attempt. He was one of five running backs to find the end zone this weekend
• No. 2 running back Samaje Perine (five receptions on five targets for 31 yards receiving) was one of just three running backs to record a 100.0% catch rate
• Cincinnati’s pass rush rocked a third-ranked 43.8% quarterback pressure rate, and the secondary batted a week-high eight Josh Allen passes out of the air
• Cincinnati’s defensive front blanked Buffalo’s ground game, limiting them to a divisional-round low 3.32 yards per rush attempt

Buffalo Bills 

• Allen closed the season with 265 scoreless yards passing and a seventh-ranked 59.5% completion rate
• Allen finished with eight rush attempts, 26 yards rushing and one rushing touchdown
• Stefon Diggs flashed his trademark route-running dynamism, producing an eighth-ranked (among wide receivers with at least three targets) 23.3% targets per route run rate. However, Allen and Diggs connected on just four-of-10 targets. Diggs’ 10 passing-game looks were tied for third at the position
• Not a single Buffalo wide receiver produced more than 40 yards receiving
• Gabe Davis assumed a full-time role operating as Buffalo’s downfield Z-receiver. Unfortunately for Buffalo, Davis displayed an inability to both earn targets and catch the ones that came his way. Of course, Davis’ role as a deep threat brings inherent volatility
• The table below ranks in parentheses Davis’ receiving data among 54 NFL wide receivers with at least 75 regular-season targets

• Fifth-round rookie Khalil Shakir closed the year on an exceptionally promising three-game streak, producing 23.1% targets per route run and 3.05 yards per route run
• Isaiah McKenzie (17.0% targets per route run and 1.11 yards per route run) failed to prove he belongs in three-wide receiver sets
• Dawson Knox did his part, catching five-of-seven targets for 65 yards receiving. His regular-season 13.8% targets per route run and 1.10 yards per route run were career lows but hardly a departure from his four-season 14.7% and 1.14 respective rates
• Devin Singletary's six rush attempts edged out rookie James Cook's five. Neither player touched 25 yards rushing or scored
• Singletary’s eight targets, five receptions and 38 yards receiving were his highest receiving counting statistics since Week 1
• Singletary’s 2.85 yards after contact per rush attempt were the lowest of his four-year career and his first sub-3.00
• The tables below rank in parentheses Cook’s regular-season rushing data among NFL 55 running backs with at least 75 rush attempts and Cook’s regular-season receiving data among 51 NFL running backs with at least 25 targets

• Cook’s 41-yard longest receiving gain was tied for 10th
• Buffalo’s 31.6% quarterback pressure rate ranks sixth on the week. The front office will need to bolster the pass rush this offseason

49ers 19, Cowboys 12

Summary

• San Francisco opened as -4.0-point home favorites and closed at -4.5. The 49ers covered
• The game total opened at 46.0 points and closed at 46.5. The under cashed by double digits
• Dallas converted just five-of-15 third downs
• San Francisco converted seven-of-14 third downs
• On nine total fourth downs, Dallas converted two-of-two attempts, successfully kicked two field goals, was penalized once and punted four times
• On eight total fourth downs, San Francisco successfully kicked three three field goals, was penalized once and punted four times
• Dallas offensive lineman Jason Peters was inactive

Dallas Cowboys

• Dak Prescott’s 5.57 yards per pass attempt ranked sixth on the week and are 1.6 below his season-long average. He finished with a mediocre 206 yards passing, one touchdown passing, two interceptions and four rush attempts for 22 yards
• CeeDee Lamb (10 receptions on 13 targets for 117 yards receiving and two rush attempts for six yards rushing) and tight end Dalton Schultz (five receptions on 10 targets for 27 yards receiving and one touchdown) earned more than double the targets of Dallas' other pass catchers
• Lamb set career bests in regular-season counting statistics (156 targets, 107 receptions, 1,359 yards receiving and nine touchdowns receiving) and efficiency metrics (27.4% targets per route run and 2.38 yards per route run)
• The table below ranks in parentheses his receiving data among 54 wide receivers with at least 75 regular-season targets)

• Schultz’s regular-season 21.3% targets per route run were a career-high
• Michael Gallup was without a catch on Sunday. His 1.00 yards per route run is a career-low
• T.Y Hilton posted a respectable 19.2% targets per route run and 2.04 yards per route run rates in five games with Dallas
• Tony Pollard broke his leg on Sunday, but he had a career year with 1,007 yards rushing, nine touchdowns rushing, 371 yards receiving and three touchdowns receiving
• The table below ranks Pollard’s regular-season rushing data among 55 NFL running backs with at least 75 rush attempts and Pollard’s regular-season receiving data among 51 NFL running backs with at least 25 targets

• Even with Pollard’s second-quarter exit, Ezekiel Elliott managed just 26 yards rushing on 10 rush attempts
• Elliott’s regular-season 3.79 yards per rush attempt are the lowest of his seven-year career and the only time he finished under 4.00
• Kick and punt returner KaVontae Turpin’s 10.45 yards per punt return ranks 15 among 47 punt returners with at least five punt returns, and his 24.19 yards per kickoff return ranks 18th among 55 kickoff returners with at least five kickoff returns
• Dallas’ second-ranked 45.5% quarterback pressure rate was not enough to stymie San Francisco

San Francisco 49ers

• Brock Purdy threw for 214 scoreless yards via a 65.5% completion rate. Both marks finished fourth on the week
• Purdy’s comical rushing lines continued. He had three rush attempts for eight yards
• Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk combined for just 11 targets, six receptions and 71 yards receiving
• George Kittle produced a perfect 100.0% catch rate (five targets, five receptions and 95 yards receiving). The table below ranks in parentheses Kittle’s receiving data among 12 divisional-round tight ends with at least two targets

• Christian McCaffrey was held to 35 yards rushing on 10 attempts but was one of only four running back to score a rushing touchdown 
• McCaffrey tied Singletary for a week-high eight targets
• McCaffrey’s 29.6% targets per route run ranked third among divisional-round running backs with at least two targets
• Elijah Mitchell’s 51 yards rushing (14 rush attempts, third-most) ranked seventh among divisional-round running backs with at least five rush attempts
• San Francisco’s defensive front generated a 32.5% quarterback pressure rate (fifth-highest) and limited Dallas to just 3.45 yards per rush attempt (second-fewest)

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Nic Bodiford

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Nic Bodiford contributes to The 33rd Team's fantasy football department and works elsewhere as an analyst and editor in written, video and audio mediums. These works can be found at Pro Football Focus, 4for4, Nerdball and Fake Teams. Nic moonlights at Legendary Upside by editing Pat Kerrane's weekly article, The Walkthrough.