How Giants Can Move Forward, Keep Daniel Jones, Saquon Barkley
Analysis 2/21/23
When the New York Giants opted not to exercise quarterback Daniel Jones' fifth-year option last May, they hoped their former sixth-overall pick would play well enough to lead them to the playoffs and make them regret their decision.
Mission accomplished.
Jones elevated his performance significantly in 2022, leading the G-Men to a wild-card berth and a road playoff victory in Minnesota.
It triggered at least a $10 million boost in pay for Jones, who would have been paid $22.4 million in 2023 if the Giants had exercised the option and did not extend him. Instead, the floor for Jones' contract negotiation is now the $32.4 million non-exclusive franchise tag value. With Jones reportedly hiring a new agency (Athletes First) to represent him, he's reportedly seeking at least $45 million per year with free agency and the new league year coming on March 15. Meanwhile, the franchise-tag period is open and runs until March 7.
The Giants want to retain their two best offensive players — Jones and running back Saquon Barkley. The team is in good shape, salary cap-wise, with $43 million in cap room.
While they're surely negotiating with both players, I believe the team hopes to sign Jones on a long-term deal in the $35-37.5 million range and place the $10.1 million franchise tag for running backs on Barkley. Or perhaps they'll place the $8.429 million transition tag on Barkley, thus retaining a right of first refusal. The franchise tag would be more likely because it would cut off negotiations with other teams, and it's hard to imagine anyone would give up two first-round picks for a back.
I think the Giants would rather not commit long-term with a large guarantee to Barkley in an era when it's difficult for top backs to get paid big bucks on multiyear contracts. The two Super Bowl teams — the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles — didn't have a back making more than $1.7 million.
Barkley had a great 2022 season with 1,312 yards rushing, 10 rushing TDs, and 57 receptions for 338 yards in the regular season, plus 191 total yards and two TDs in the playoffs. He also missed 18 games combined in the 2020 and 2021 seasons with various injuries. The Giants likely want to see him have another Pro Bowl season while staying healthy before they even consider a long-term deal.
As for Jones, his leverage increased after a season in which he passed for 3,205 yards and 15 TDs with only five interceptions for a career-high 92.5 passer rating while playing without a true No. 1 receiver. He also was impressive in rushing for 708 yards and seven TDs in new coach Brian Daboll's offense.
Here are the key factors for the Giants to consider as they place a contract value on Jones.
He had a 12-25 record as a starter during his first three seasons, with a lackluster supporting cast and Barkley unavailable for long stretches, before going 9-6-1 in the 2022 regular season. He went 1-1 in his first postseason with 301 yards passing and two TD tosses, along with 78 yards rushing, coming against the Minnesota Vikings' No. 31-ranked defense. The next week, the Philadelphia Eagles' second-ranked defense held him to 135 yards passing, with no TDs and one interception, and 24 yards rushing in a 38-7 thrashing.
Jones' first winning season was in 2022, which was also his first year with a passer rating above 90. So, does one good season out of four warrant a top-10 quarterback contract for a player who has not yet been selected to a Pro Bowl?
Arizona's Kyler Murray, the top pick in Jones' 2019 draft class, signed his five-year, $230 million extension ($46 million per year) last July as he was going into his fourth season after one playoff berth. He already had two Pro Bowl seasons in which his stats were significantly better than Jones'. He also had two years left on his rookie contract, so his effective per-year compensation is actually $38 million per year.
I see Jones as a rising star who needs to have a few more strong seasons to prove he's a consistent, elite quarterback. I think under an excellent head coach and quarterback guru in Daboll, who was Josh Allen's offensive coordinator in Buffalo, Jones has a good chance to further ascend to the level of a Pro Bowl-caliber QB.
Giants co-owner John Mara and general manager Joe Schoen should want to sign Jones to a multi-year deal for around $35 million per year. I would be willing to stretch it to $37.5 million per year while keeping the guaranteed money far below the $190 million given to Murray and significantly below the $150 million Allen received on his $43 million-per-year extension in 2021. The $37.5 million average also seems in line compared to Dak Prescott, who had two playoff seasons and two Pro Bowl selections by the time he received his $40 million per year from the Dallas Cowboys in 2021.
The $37.5 million-per-year-figure ($75 million in the first two years) for Jones would be $3.7 million more than if he played two years under the franchise tag at $32.4 million and $38.9 million. It could wind up as a bargain for the Giants compared to if Jones played well under two years of franchise tags and then was a free agent in 2025. The QB market likely will explode by then because increased TV revenue will fuel a big increase in the salary cap, and there will be new deals in the pipeline for Joe Burrow, Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts, and possibly Lamar Jackson, if he's not playing under the franchise tag.
If Jones and his new agents demand $45 million per year, the Giants should and likely will say no and franchise him on the one-year tender while continuing to negotiate a long-term deal until the July deadline.
An intelligent move for Jones is to negotiate a shorter deal than the five-to-seven-year contracts of Murray, Allen, and Deshaun Watson and get back to the negotiating table as soon as 2024. Jones then would be in the second year of a three-year deal, and he would be only 27 years old.
He still could receive a guarantee in the $75 million range on a three-year, $112.5 million deal or perhaps get a Kirk Cousins-like fully guaranteed three-year deal, similar to the $84 million one the Vikings gave Cousins in 2018. By next year, Jones could prove himself worthy of a contract valued above $45 million per year when the new deals for Burrow, Herbert, Hurts and Jackson are factored in.
The Giants should be willing to do a three- or four-year deal in order to keep the guaranteed money much lower than the league's more proven quarterbacks.
By taking the approach Cousins did in Washington, where he went the franchise-tag route for two years, Jones would risk a career-ending injury, costing him significant guaranteed money.
If Jones winds up being franchised, it increases the risk of losing Barkley. However, I think there's a good chance that with their healthy cap situation and the devaluing of running backs, the Giants still can sign Barkley to an affordable deal with a lower first-year cap number due to the signing bonus proration. Jones also could receive an offer under the non-exclusive tag from a team willing to give up two first-round picks, and the Giants could then match the offer, but that rarely happens in today's NFL.
There are a lot of moving parts to these fascinating Jones and Barkley contract discussions.
Stay tuned, and we'll see where things land on March 15 and into the summer if one of the players is franchised and still negotiating a long-term deal. It will set the stage for where the Giants are able to proceed on other signings to improve a team that made a big leap last season but still has a ways to go to overcome the Eagles and Cowboys in the tough NFC East.
Jeff Diamond is a former Minnesota Vikings general manager and Titans team president. He was selected NFL Executive of the Year after the Vikings’ 15-1 season in 1998. Follow him on Twitter at @jeffdiamondnfl.
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