Analysis

12/13/22

15 min read

Hill's NFL Week 15 Fantasy Football Rankings

By Matthew Hill

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If the fantasy football season is a story, Week 15 is its climax. Months filled with drama, action and uncertainty have built to this point. Every lineup decision is magnified as we begin the fantasy football playoffs and head toward the season's resolution. 

This article features my complete rankings for the week, and blurbs highlighting players I have above or below consensus, according to how my rankings match up with the FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR).

My initial rankings are made based on my first impressions of the players based on matchups and recent trends. Look for updated rankings and additional player blurbs throughout the week as new information presents itself.

Top 20 Quarterbacks

• Dak Prescott has now failed to finish inside the top-10 passers for three straight weeks as Dallas has been content to lean on the running game. With a Jaguars defense that has allowed multiple touchdown passes in four of their last five games on tap, Prescott is poised to bounce back in a game with an early 48-point total.
• Brock Purdy threw for a pair of touchdowns in Week 13, then repeated his multiple-touchdown effort in his first start last week. He now gets Seattle in a game with shootout potential. He is a value at his ECR of QB19.
• Matt Ryan finished as the QB5 in his Week 10 return to the Colts' starting lineup at Las Vegas. Since then, he has finished no higher than QB22 in a trio of difficult matchups. Ryan travels to Minnesota to take on a Vikings defense that just allowed Jared Goff to throw for 330 yards with three scores. He was the fourth quarterback in five games to have thrown for at least 330 yards against the Vikings. No one is excited to start Ryan but his ECR of QB22 seems too low considering the matchup and the health of his receivers.
• Jared Goff’s back-to-back top five finishes has his ECR inflated in a cold-weather road game that has seen its shootout potential drop since Mike White was declared out. Goff’s last four road games he has finished as the QB29, QB28, QB22, and QB26.

Top 50 Running Backs

• No one saw Jerick McKinnon’s RB1 overall week coming, and certainly, no one is expecting a repeat performance in Week 15. However, McKinnon’s brilliant Week 14 did shine a light on one of fantasy’s most underrated players in recent weeks. He has finished as a PPR RB2 (or greater) in four of the last six weeks. Kansas City’s matchup against Houston doesn’t get any better for a running back, and it would not be surprising to get strong performances from both McKinnon and Isiah Pacheco. 
• Since Week 10, James Conner has finished as the RB4, RB13, RB5, BYE and RB8. He has seen at least 14 carries and has had multiple receptions in each game and scored a total of five times. He enters the week with an ECR of RB18 despite taking on a Denver defense that struggled against the run. Conner will likely be asked to take on an even greater role with Kyler Murray out for the season. 

• Dare Ogunbowale and Rex Burkhead are both interesting with Dameon Pierce suffering a high ankle sprain last week. Burkhead entered the year in the passing-down role, seeing five or more targets in four of six games to start the season. It has been Ogunbowale, however, that has spelled Pierce in recent games, playing between 21-30% of the snaps since Week 12. Both backs have lead-back size and are strong receivers, meaning one of them is likely to smash their early ERCs. It will be worth closely monitoring news this week about which back is likely to see the most work.
• Michael Carter returned and narrowly edged Zonovan Knight in snaps, 37 to 35. It was Knight, however, who continued to see the bulk of the touches, logging 17 of the Jets' 22 carries, rushing for 71 yards and a score on his way to an overall RB13 finish. Knight remains a value as the early RB21 in a plus matchup against the Lions.

Top 65 Wide Receivers

• Ja’Marr Chase was the focal point of the Bengals' offense in Week 14, catching 10 of 15 targets for 119 yards and a touchdown. With Tyler Boyd expected to miss one or two weeks with a dislocated finger, and Tee Higgins dealing with a hamstring problem, Chase is once again set up to be a high-floor/massive ceiling, target monster. *UPDATE* In a bit of a surprise, both Higgins and Boyd are expected to play tomorrow. Chase remains my overall WR2, though his floor is lowered a bit. I have Higgins conservatively ranked as borderline WR2/WR3.
• Garrett Wilson has totaled 19 receptions, 335 yards and two scores on 30 targets during his last three games. Detroit is next. He is squarely in my top 10 this week. *UPDATE* Zach Wilson being named starter has Wilson dropping out of my top ten into the late teens.
• Tampa Bay was a disaster in Week 14, losing 35-7 to San Francisco. Despite the Buccaneers doing little offensively, Chris Godwin still managed to score double-digit PPR points, bringing in five of nine targets for 54 yards. Having just seen his floor, Godwin and Tampa Bay’s offense as a whole is set up for a ceiling game at home vs Cincinnati. 
• Everything seems to be lining up for Brandon Aiyuk to see double-digit targets for the first time since Week 7 in their road matchup vs. Seattle. In the two games where Aiyuk crested 10 targets, he scored 28 and 15 PPR points, finishing as the WR4 and WR18. 
• Elijah Moore crested an 80% snap share for the first time since Week 4, bringing in six of nine targets for 60 yards. Moore trailed only Wilson in snaps and routes run as he stepped into Corey Davis' void left after he left with a concussion. If Davis doesn’t get cleared, look for Moore to have a similar role in a potential shootout vs Detroit. *UPDATE* Like Wilson, Moore drops with Wilson returning to the lineup. You’re obviously playing Wilson, but Moore is a lot less interesting to me in DFS and I feel a lot less confident about plugging him into a playoff lineup I had “safer” options.  
• With both Nico Collins and Brandin Cooks out, Chris Moore erupted, catching 10 of 11 targets for 124 yards in a tough matchup vs. Dallas, finishing as the PPR WR5. Moore will resume his role as the Texans' go-to wide receiver against a vulnerable Kansas City secondary with plenty of garbage time likely on tap. 
• Julio Jones has been targeted 14 times in the past two games with snap shares of 67% and 74%. *UPDATE* Jones heads into the weekend with a questionable tag. I still like Tampa Bay’s chances for a whole-offense bounce back, but limited practices takes some of the shine off of Julio’s sleeper status. 
• Isaiah Hodgins has scored in back-to-back weeks and gets a rematch against a Washington team he posted a 5/44/1 line against just two weeks ago. He continues to be undervalued despite his expanding role. 
• Trenton Irwin has a pair of touchdowns and three multi-catch games in limited snaps this season. With Higgins and Boyd both likely out, Irwin has deep league flex appeal as the Bengals' likely No.2 wide receiver.*UPDATE* If Higgins and/or Boyd are playing, Irwin’s value tanks.

Top 22 Tight Ends

• Dalton Schultz saw 10 targets in Week 14, bringing in six for 87 yards. He finished as the TE4, marking his third top-four finish since Week 10. He gets a Jacksonville defense this week that has surrendered a touchdown to a tight end in three of the past four games. 
• Looks like my concerns about David Njoku being eased back in from injury last week were not warranted. Njoku played 96% of the snaps, running 48 routes, catching seven of nine targets for 59 yards and a touchdown, finishing as Week 14’s TE3. His early ECR of TE9 is too low. 
• Cole Kmet has now finished as a TE1 in four of Justin Fields’ last five starts, including an overall TE1 and a TE2 week. 
• Foster Moreau has finished at the TE20 or worse in six of eight starts but continues to be ranked as a low-end TE1 each week. Despite playing at least 90% of the snaps since Week 7, Moreau simply has not received TE1 volume, having only seen three or four targets in three of the last four games. *UPDATE* Darren Waller has a chance to play this weekend, further tanking Moreau’s value.

WATCH: Week 15 Waiver Wire Show

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Matthew Hill

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Writing and providing draft and in-season rankings since 2014, Matthew Hill was chosen FantasyPro's “Most Accurate Expert” for 2018. In addition to his 2018 first place in-season accuracy finish, Matthew’s draft rankings are among the industry's most accurate, finishing in the top 12 for 2019 to 2021.