Analysis

10/24/22

8 min read

Five Fantasy Football Takeaways: NFL Week 7

By Nic Bodiford

Week 7 Fantasy Football

Welcome to The Five Takeaways! Every Monday morning, this article will bring you the top need-to-know storylines for Fantasy Football in 2022. All data included in this article comes from trumedianetworks.com. Enjoy!

Christian McCaffrey’s Usage in San Francisco

  • Acquired via trade on Thursday, star running back McCaffrey made his debut as a San Francisco 49er this weekend. There was some concern as to whether or not head coach Kyle Shanahan, perhaps the league’s premier run game architect, would try to force McCaffrey, a dual-threat dynamo, into a run-centric workload. Those concerns have been erased.
  • The tables below show McCaffrey’s snap counts and methods of deployment.
Christian McCaffrey Situational Snap Counts Total Snaps Snaps: 3rd & 4th Down w/ 3+ Yards To-Go Snaps: 2-Min. Drill Snaps: Red Zone (Inside Opponent’s 20-Yard Line) Snaps: Green Zone (Inside Opponent’s 10-Yard Line)
Week 7 Statistics 21 0 2 4 1
  • Nearly one-fifth of McCaffrey’s total snaps came inside the opponent’s red zone. Shanahan wanting McCaffrey on the field in scoring position is a great sign. He had little over 48 hours to learn the playbook.
  • McCaffrey’s two two-minute drill snaps were just one behind backfield leader, rookie Tyrion Davis-Price (three).
Christian McCaffrey Pass-Game Usage Total Snaps - Routes Run Per Routes Run Rates: Targets - Yards Rec./Tgt. - Yards Rec. - TD 
Week 7 Statistics 21 - 12 16.7% - 2.00 2/2 - 24 - 0
  • 57.14% of McCaffrey’s snaps came via the passing game, which shows Shanahan is committed to getting the most out of football’s most talented pass-catching running back.
  • McCaffrey’s 2.00 yards per route run was the third-best rate on the team.
Christian McCaffrey Run-Game Usage Rush Att. - Yards Rushing - TD Yards Before Contact per Rush Att. Yards After Contact per Rush Att.
Week 7 Statistics 8 - 38 - 0 2.63 2.13
  • McCaffrey did a great job of reading his blocks. His 2.63 yards before contact per rush attempt was No. 1 on the team.

Atlanta is Committed to the Run

  • Even in a blowout loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, Atlanta Falcons coach Arthur Smith refused to call upon his ultra-talented pass-catching duo of wide receiver Drake London and tight end Kyle Pitts.
  • Cincinnati went up 21-0 on the first play of the second quarter, thanks to a 32-yard catch-and-run by wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase. From that moment on, Atlanta quarterback Marcus Mariota attempted just 10 passes on a measly 15 dropbacks. 
  • Mariota also totaled five rush attempts in quarters two-through-four, while the running backs combined for 19 more rush attempts. 
  • Predictably, Atlanta lost 35-17. 
  • London and Pitts are two of the most efficient pass catchers at their respective positions. 
  • The table below shows London and Pitts’ efficiency metrics with their positional rank shown in parentheses alongside the metric. 
  • Thresholds used for the ranking: 100 offensive snaps and 30 targets. 
Atlanta Falcons Targets per Route Run Rate Yards per Route Run
Drake London 28.8% (No. 5-of-56) 2.06 (No. 15-of-56)
Kyle Pitts 26.1% (No. 2-of-16) 1.55 (No. 9-of-16)
  • London and Pitts are already two of the most talented target earners in the NFL. Their respective receiving efficiency rates rank them No. 1 on more than half of the teams in the league. 
  • The table below shows London and Pitts’ raw receptions statistics, ranked using the same methodology. 
Atlanta Falcons Receptions - Targets Yards Receiving  Touchdowns
Drake London 44 (T-No. 31-of-56) - 26 (T-No. 38-of-56) 315 (No. 39-of-56) 2 (T-No. 15-of-56)
Kyle Pitts 30 (T-No. 15-of-16) - 16 (No. 16-of-16) 178 (No. 16-of-16) 1 (T-No. 8-of-16)
  • Moving forward, fantasy managers need to use extreme discretion when starting London or Pitts. Smith’s refusal to go pass-heavy when trailing by two or more possessions is a complete and total coaching failure. 
  • Atlanta plays the Carolina Panthers next week and the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 9. Carolina is allowing just 6.64 yards passing per pass attempt (eighth fewest), and Los Angeles is allowing 7.09 yards passing per pass attempt (16th fewest). 

Robinson is a Target Hog

  • New York Giants rookie wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson built on his promising Week 6 showing. He secured a team-high in receptions (six) and targets (eight) in Week 7.
  • Robinson suffered a Grade 1 knee sprain just nine snaps into his Week 1 NFL debut and was sidelined until Week 6. Though Robinson has been eased back into the lineup, the 5-foot-8-inch, 185-pound receiver has been a dynamite target earner when on the field.
  • The table below shows Robinson’s receiving efficiency metrics ranked against all New York teammates. 
Wan’Dale Robinson Receiving Data Weeks 1, 6, and 7 Routes Run - Rec./Tgt.-Yards Rec.-TDs Targets per Route Run Rate Yards per Route Run
Week 1 4 - 1/1 - 5 - 0 25.0% (No. 3-of-12) 1.25 (No. 4-of-12)
Week 6 11 - 3/4 - 37 - 1 36.4% (No. 2-of-11) 3.36 (No. 2-of-11)
Week 7 29 - 6/8 - 50 - 0 27.6% (No. 2-of-12) 1.72 (No. 5-of-12)
  • It’s a small sample size, but among 11 rookie wide receivers with at least 12 targets, his 29.5% targets per route run rate ranks No. 1 overall. Also, his 2.09 yards per route run rate ranks No. 2.
  • Outside of running back Saquon Barkley, Robinson’s competition was fellow rookie tight end Daniel Bellinger, whose rise during the last three weeks had been outstanding. Unfortunately, Bellinger suffered an eye injury early in Week 7 and might need surgery.  
  • Robinson has a clear path to double-digit targets on a weekly basis. He should be ranked well inside the position’s top 24 next week as New York takes on the Seattle Seahawks, who allow 7.79 yards passing per pass attempt, the fifth most in the NFL. 

Rodgers’ Thumb Injury is a Problem

  • Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers injured the thumb on his throwing hand on his game-ending desperation pass attempt in Week 5. 
  • The video broadcasts in both Weeks 6 and 7 have shown Rodgers’ gripping his thumb, grimacing in pain. 
  • Just two Green Bay pass catchers have recorded more than 55 yards receiving since Rodgers’ injury.
  • As shown below in the graphics below, Rodgers was doing a good job of distributing the ball between the short, intermediate and deep areas of the field in Weeks 1-5. 
  • In Weeks 6-7, Rodgers abandoned the intermediate region, instead vacillating between the short area of the field or trying to force the ball deep. 
  • Rodgers’ 67.9% completion percentage was sixth best in the NFL between Weeks 1-5, but his 64.5% completion percentage the last two weeks ranks 21st.
  • Green Bay’s medical staff must determine whether or not rehabilitating the thumb while continuing to play is a feasible course of action. Green Bay’s bye does not come until Week 14. 
  • Fantasy managers with Green Bay pass catchers will need to closely monitor the news around Rodgers.

Edwards is Baltimore’s No. 1 RB

  • Gus Edwards was activated off the Reserve/Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list on Saturday, following a 13-month absence after tearing his ACL, LCL and hamstring in September 2021. 
  • Baltimore’s true No. 1 running back, J.K. Dobbins, decided to undergo a cleanup procedure to remove pain-causing scar tissue from his 2021 ACL/LCL reconstruction, which landed him on injured reserve.
  • Edwards took a plurality of snaps and dominated backfield touches. No other running back recorded a reception.
Baltimore Ravens Running Backs in Week 7 Snaps: Total - 3rd & 4th Down (3+ yards to-go) - 2-min. Drill Rush Attempts - Yards Rushing - Touchdowns - Fumbles Targets - Targets per Route Run Rate
Gus Edwards 23 - 2 - 1 16 - 66 - 2 - 0 4 - 25.0%
Justice Hill 20 - 5 - 2 5 - 26 - 0 - 1 7 - 0.0%
Kenyan Drake 16 - 2 - 2 11 - 5 - 0 - 0 3 - 33.3%
  • Edwards returning from PUP and immediately assuming lead back duties is a great sign for his future use.
The Baltimore Ravens Six-Week Schedule Week 8 Week 9 Week 10 Week 11 Week 12 Week 16
Opponent - Location Tampa Bay Buccaneers - Away New Orleans Saints - Away Bye Carolina Panthers - Home Jacksonville Jaguars - Away Denver Broncos - Home
  • Baltimore will likely be the favorite in its next five contests, providing helpful game scripts for Edwards.
  • Their next two opponents, Denver and New Orleans, average 4.70 yards rushing per carry allowed and 4.59 yards rushing per carry allowed, respectively. They are among the top 12 most-running-back-friendly defenses in the NFL. 

WATCH MORE: Bills DE Gregory Rousseau Joins Trey Wingo

 

Tags: Aaron Rodgers, Atlanta Falcons, Baltimore Ravens See More

Nic Bodiford

Nic Bodiford contributes to The 33rd Team's fantasy football department and works elsewhere as an analyst and editor in written, video and audio mediums. These works can be found at Pro Football Focus, 4for4, Nerdball and Fake Teams. Nic moonlights at Legendary Upside by editing Pat Kerrane's weekly article, The Walkthrough.

RELATED