Analysis
11/17/22
9 min read
Dynasty Stock Report: Fantasy Football Buys, Sells or Holds
Welcome to the debut dynasty stock article, where we evaluate polarizing players to see whether their dynasty stock rises or falls. In fantasy football, we're dealing with small samples, where a situation can change into the following year. It goes without saying that each league is different, and each manager values their players differently.
The goal of these dynasty stock articles is to use the recent or season-long data as a guide on how to value players. Should we buy, sell or hold these players? How do these players compare historically? Let's dive into two players seeing their dynasty stock rise and two having their dynasty stock fall.
Dynasty Stock Up
Justin Fields, QB, CHI
Age: 23.7
Fields has skyrocketed in the redraft and dynasty stock markets after smashing via rushing productivity during the past few weeks. Even if we think back to his rookie season, Fields averaged 23.2 PPR/G in four out of the final five games. In seven other contests earlier in the season, Fields averaged less than 10 fantasy points. My second The 33rd Team article covered cheaper alternatives at quarterback and running back, and Fields seemed like a discount option for Jalen Hurts or Trey Lance.
Through 10 weeks, Fields ranks first in rushing yards per game, first in carries and second in broken/missed tackles per attempt among quarterbacks with 10 carries. His passing efficiency still remains poor, with 4.2 adjusted yards per attempt in 2021 versus 4.9 in 2022. In Weeks 1-4, before he exploded, he ranked last (32nd) in AY/A at 3.0 among QBs with 50 attempts. Fields' passing efficiency improved in Weeks 5-10 to 5.9 AY/A (No. 18), which is positive, though it's just a bonus to his already strong rushing numbers.
Historical Comparisons
Let's look at the closest historical comparisons of quarterbacks in their first two seasons since 2012. Fields matched with Hurts, Josh Allen, Robert Griffin III, Cam Newton and Kyler Murray in passing EP, FPOE and plus rushing EP. When considering draft capital, Hurts went the latest at pick 53, with the rest being first-round picks. Fields has the worst passing efficiency amongst the bunch, evidenced by the -1.4 passing FPOE/G.
When looking at it from a fantasy points-per-game perspective, only six quarterbacks scored at least 35 points twice in their first two seasons. Fields averaged the most fantasy points per game in this small sample, according to TruMedia. Outside of Mitchell Trubisky, the rest of the quarterbacks remain elite options.
- Patrick Mahomes - 37.8
- Lamar Jackson - 36.8
- Mitchell Trubisky - 39.7
- Justin Herbert - 40.7
- Kyler Murray - 35.3
- Justin Fields - 41.2
How To Play It?
Depending on how Fields finishes the season, he'll likely rank as a top-5 quarterback in redraft leagues. We could argue the same for dynasty, though top-8 is probably fairer. If anything, the path of Jackson or Hurts would be the most reasonable outcome with the elite rushing floor, plus the potential for an overall QB1 season.
During the past month, Fields' dynasty stock went from a buy-low opportunity based on talent and elite rushing upside to a potential sell high. While Fields' value may not be higher, it's the upside scenario many hoped for when he came into the league, meaning you should hold, especially in Superflex formats. Unless someone offers Mahomes or Allen, which is unlikely, hold onto Fields. We might be overreacting to the recent sample for Fields and confirming our past biases. However, he's put himself in the conversation for the top 6-8 quarterbacks for the next few years and beyond.
Rondale Moore, WR, ARI
Age: 22.4
It's easier to hold firm onto your priors in fantasy baseball than in football, with a lengthier season, slightly more predictability and replacement-level players. Earlier in the offseason, I wrote about Moore as a cheaper alternative at receiver, and his outlier-level depth of target with 1.44 air yards per target. Since 2016, Moore had the lowest AY/T behind Anquan Boldin at 5.75 (first percentile) among receivers, per TruMedia. As a rookie, Moore produced via yards after the catch with the third-most YAC/Rec at 8.1.
Moore missed the first three games with a hamstring injury. In Week 4, the Cardinals slowly eased him into the offense with Marquise Brown as the focal point before his injury. Since Week 4, Moore ranks 22nd with a 22.9% target share and 10th in total targets. Moore's AY/T improved to 5.52 (No. 71 out of 75 qualified WRs) with a quality 6.85 YAC/Rec (No. 3).
Although Moore seems unexciting as a volume-based receiver, he displayed the potential ceiling with a career-high 37.1% target share (No. 5) and a 52.9% air yards share (No. 3) in Week 10.
How To Play It?
While Moore profiles as a slot receiver, he earns air yards and turns them into yards after the catch. Even if his role remains similar, it provides him with convertible targets to produce like a WR2 based on the volume and PPR floor. It's hard to compare Moore's profile since he flashed some upside and downside in Year 1, then improved his dynasty stock during the past month.
Even when looking at the top comparisons, Moore produced a similar receiving EP/G to Elijah Moore, K.J. Hamler and Jamison Crowder based on their size and draft capital. Crowder posted two WR3 seasons after Year 2, though injuries hampered him.
Although we have question marks surrounding target competition with DeAndre Hopkins and Brown moving forward, Hopkins has a potential out in 2023. Hopkins is due $19.4 million with a backloaded contract. Having Brown and Hopkins healthy in 2022 could muddy Moore's role and value, but we've seen Hopkins and Moore thrive together in a high-volume offense. The Cardinals rank first in plays per 60 minutes (71), 10th in pass rate (62%) and third in seconds per snap (24.9), meaning it's a fantasy-friendly offense.
Based on the trade market in redraft leagues, fantasy managers continue undervaluing Moore. That could be the same in dynasty leagues too, so it's best to hold. Since Week 5, Moore averages 13.9 EP/G (No. 17), with 1.8 yards per route run (No. 32). Moore's floor is more of a WR3, like Cole Beasley, Crowder or Jarvis Landry. However, his target volume and receiving EP point to a WR2.
Dynasty Stock Down
D'Andre Swift, RB, DET
Age: 23.8
After two straight productive seasons as RB17 and RB15, injuries and Jamaal Williams' rise have negatively impacted Swift's dynasty value in 2022. Williams keeps popping up in the weekly and season-long data for high-value touches, though Swift has been efficient when given the rock. Through Week 10, Swift ranks 50th in opportunities and sixth in fantasy points over expectation per game (FPOE/G).
In Swift's first two seasons, he averaged a 57% snap share, a 15% target share and 44% of the team's rush share. While Williams only factored into one of those seasons, he posted a 49% rush share and a 6% target share. Unfortunately for Swift, his rush share most notably fell to 24% versus Williams' 58% in 2022. While Swift edges Williams in target share (12% to 4%), it's still concerning when Swift averages 9.2 opportunities per game since Week 2. Part of the reason for that involves Swift's shoulder and ankle injuries, though Williams has been more effective, especially on the ground.
How To Play It?
One of the more challenging parts of fantasy football involves projecting a range of outcomes for a player and situation. In one scenario, we could be dreaming about Swift's upside in 2022 and beyond if the opportunities remain limited. Or we could excuse Swift's lack of touches due to injuries, which seems logical. However, there's another situation where one might attempt to sell low based on the preseason dynasty and redraft expectations.
In Swift's first two seasons, he ranked sixth in receiving EP/G (7.8) and 14th in total EP/G (14.5) amongst running backs. Unfortunately, Swift's receiving EP/G fell to 5.9 (No. 14) in 2022. Based on Swift's receiving skills, upside and early season injuries, attempt to buy low in dynasty formats as a high-end RB2 with RB1 weeks within the range of outcomes.
Elijah Moore, WR, NYJ
Age: 22.5
In the offseason, I wanted a piece of the Jets' offense and invested heavily in Michael Carter and Garrett Wilson. Part of the reason involved the differences in ADP between Breece Hall and Moore, but they weren't players to avoid. With Moore, his dynasty stock peaked towards the end of his rookie season before a season-ending quad injury. Then, we could argue Moore's dynasty stock barely took off in Year 2, with 8.4 PPR/G in Weeks 1-4.
After that, Moore expressed frustrations with the lack of targets, requested a trade, did not get traded, then missed a game and scored zero fantasy points during the last four games. Since we're dealing with small samples, we'll want to take the data with a grain of salt.
From Weeks 7-13 in 2021, Moore averaged a 20% target share and a 39% air yards share, translating into 17.7 PPR/G (No. 10). He also ranked 17th in EP/G, 10th in FPOE/G and 10th in YPRR (2.4) tied with Diontae Johnson and Tyler Lockett. It's hard to compare to Year 2 with a dreadful EP/G (No. 82), FPOE/G (No. 209) and YPRR (No. 117).
How To Play It?
So, how do we value Moore's dynasty stock? This season seems like a low-probability outcome before 2022. At first glance, it presents a buy-low opportunity, given his prospect profile and rookie season. As a rookie, Moore's top comparisons based on receiving EP, draft capital and size included Brandin Cooks, DJ Moore and Landry. Before 2022, that felt like a probable career path for Moore, even though the Jets added Hall and Wilson.
With a young and talented receiver like Moore, it's best to have patience and bench or hold if you roster him. We heard whispers about Moore moving to a slot role, which would probably fit his skills better. Think about Rondale Moore's usage in the slot versus outside and how the slot role allows him to create yards after the catch and use his athleticism. Even if Elijah Moore flashes while running slot routes in Week 11, that will give us more confidence to buy the dip on his dynasty stock and value.
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