Analysis
11/14/22
6 min read
Commanders vs. Eagles DFS Monday Night Showdown
The Philadelphia Eagles are undefeated and coming off extra rest since they last played on Nov. 3. They are playing at home vs. the Washington Commanders, who have won three of their last four games. These two teams already played in Week 3, and Eagles QB Jalen Hurts threw for 340 yards and three touchdowns. The Commanders could not defend the deep ball, and Commanders QB Carson Wentz was sacked nine times.
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Vegas Line: Eagles -10.5
Over Under: 44.5
Notable Injuries:
Commanders:
Out: QB Carson Wentz, RB J.D. McKissic, C Chase Roullier, Edge Chase Young, LB David Mayo, LB Cole Holcomb.
Questionable: LG Andrew Norwell, C Tyler Larsen.
Eagles
Out: Edge Derek Barnett, DT Jordan Davis, CB Avonte Maddox.
Data to Know Provided by TruMedia
Commanders Offense vs. Eagles Defense
- Commanders QB Taylor Heinicke averages 6.8 yards per attempt, 6.4 air yards per attempt and a 5.4% pass touchdown rate.
- The Eagles' secondary allows 5.5 yards per attempt, 7.2 air yards per attempt and a 3.4% pass touchdown rate.
- Philadelphia's defense sacked the Commanders nine times in their first matchup.
- Heinicke is a below-average passer metrically, and the Eagles' secondary puts up elite-level numbers.
- Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon plays a heavy zone scheme and loves to keep two safeties deep.
- Against zone coverage, Heinicke averages 6.7 yards per attempt, 7.2 air yards per attempt and a 3.4% pass touchdown rate.
- In their first matchup, the Eagles played zone at an 80% rate.
- WR Terry McLaurin had more than 100 yards receiving, and 45 of those yards came on one reception.
- WR Jahan Dotson has yet to play with Heinicke, so the data utilized will reflect without him.
- With Heinicke as the starter, McLaurin leads the team with a 28% target share, Curtis Samuel is at 18% and Antonio Gibson is at 16%.
- The running back room combines for a 28% target share.
- When Dotson was on the field, he had an 11.8% target per route run vs. zone coverage.
- Teams have found the most success against the Eagles when targeting the slot and the tight end position.
- Samuel and McLaurin will see the most snaps from the slot.
- TE Logan Thomas will see the most snaps from the tight end position.
- Eagles slot CB Avonte Maddox will be out in this game.Â
- The one weakness of this Eagles' defense is the run game because they give up 5.2 yards per carry.
- Brian Robinson and Gibson are the two players to note in the running game.
- Gibson will have most of the pass-catching role, and Robinson will likely have the goal-line work.
- Gibson is likely to be more popular because he gets most of the snaps in a negative game script.
- Washington will attempt to run the ball a ton, so the injury news on center Tyler Larsen and guard Andrew Norwell will be massive.
Eagles Offense vs. Commanders Defense
- Hurts averages 8.5 yards per attempt, 7.3 air yards per attempt and a 5.0% pass touchdown rate.
- Hurts will also see plenty of designed work in the run game, especially near the goal line.
- The Commanders play man coverage at a higher rate than the league average and blitz on 25.2% of dropbacks.
- In their first matchup, the Commanders played man coverage at a 48.8% rate and blitzed on 14.6% of dropbacks.
- In their last matchup, WR DeVonta Smith had eight receptions for 169 yards and a touchdown, and WR A.J. Brown had five for 85 and a touchdown.
- I expect the Commanders to play more zone coverage after learning they can't man up against these two wide receivers.
- Brown has a 41.8% target share in man coverage and averages 3.9 yards per route run.
- Smith, Brown and TE Dallas Goedert have a more than 20% target share against zone coverage.
- The Commanders have defended tight ends well this season in man coverage looks but zone coverage.
- Last weekend, Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson had 70 yards receiving against the Commanders.
- Players lined up wide against the Commanders have averaged 1.8 yards per route run, which is amongst the worst in the league.
- Both Smith and Brown line up out wide on more than 70% of their routes.
- WR Quez Watkins dominates the slot snaps, with Zach Pascal coming in occasionally.
- The Commanders are one of the best run defenses against RBs in the NFL, allowing 4.1 yards per carry.
- RB Miles Sanders averages 5.0 yards per carry and has scored in four of the last five games.
- RB Kenneth Gainwell is the primary backup averaging around 25% of the snaps and seeing a few touches a week.
- The run game will likely suffer if the Commanders flip to a zone-heavy scheme.
Overall Thoughts
If the Commanders implement the same man coverage scheme they used the last time these teams played, Hurts can hit the 300-yard passing bonus on DraftKings. Additionally, both Brown and Smith will have big games. However, if Washington uses more zone coverage this time, that will limit the Eagles' passing game. The front for Washington is still good enough to limit a big game from Sanders, but he should have a much better performance than their first matchup.
If they do go to a zone scheme, Goedert is the player I am most invested in. He is the perfect player for Hurts to go to, with so much attention going to Brown and Smith on the outside. The Eagles can beat you in many ways; it just depends on what you decide to try and leave vulnerable.
The Commanders need to establish this running game because Heinicke will be under pressure each time he drops back to pass. Gibson is a much more explosive runner than Robinson, but I believe both have the ability for big games with Larsen and Norvell in the lineup. In a negative game script, McLaurin, Samuel and Thomas are the three players that will get a heavy target share. McLaurin is the most likely player for the 100-yard receiving bonus, but with Maddox out for the Eagles, Samuel will have a mismatch in the slot and can have a high reception game.
Multiplier Pool
- QB Jalen Hurts
- WR Terry McLaurin
- TE Dallas Goedert
- RB Antonio Gibson
- RB Brian Robinson
FLEX Pool
- WR A.J. Brown
- QB Taylor Heinicke
- WR DeVonta Smith
- D/ST Eagles
- K Jake Elliott
- K Joey Slye
- D/ST Commanders
- TE Logan Thomas
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