Analysis

11/9/20

4 min min read

Week 9 Statistical Review

Here's a statistical breakdown of three NFL key games from Sunday:

Panthers vs. Chiefs

Panthers Smash the Gas

The Panthers got their star RB Christian McCaffrey back for the first time since Week 2
McCaffrey got to work quickly including a receiving TD in the first quarter
This was the 16th receiving TD of his career -- most by any RB since 2017 (per NFL Research)
McCaffrey’s effect was felt quickly; he led the team in rushing yards and most receptions, with 2 total TDs
Teddy Bridgewater became the first player since Peyton Manning in 2014 to have passing TDs on his team’s first two offensive possessions at Arrowhead (NFL Research)
Despite the success at the beginning of the game, Bridgewater was conservative with the ball (5.3 yards/attempt in first half)

Disappearing Lead

The conservative play of Bridgewater finally caught up to the Panthers after the first quarter
The Chiefs began to explode and feed their playmakers:
Travis Kelce ended with 10 receptions for 159 yards
Tyreek Hill ended with 9 receptions for 113 yards and 2 TDs (including over half of his yards and 2 TDs in the second half)
On his first TD pass to Hill, Patrick Mahomes became the fastest passer to 100 passing TDs
With the 2 TDs today, Patrick Mahomes has 25 total TDs on the season with 1 INT
The only other QB with more TD passes in a season prior to throwing his second INT was Drew Brees in 2018, who had 26 TDs before second INT )per NFL Research)

• They are now 2-4 in games decided by less than 10 points this season (FOX)

The Battle of MVP Candidates (Allen vs. Wilson)

Josh Allen came into the 2020 season with zero 300-plus passing yard games
He had 415 passing yards on the day with 4 TDs for a 138.49 passer rating
Josh Allen completed 86% of his passes for 282 yards and 3 TDs in the first half
The Bills came into the game as the sixth-best in the league in first-quarter points/game (6.5)
They started off hot Sunday with a three-play, 45-yard TD drive to start the game and 14 points in the first
This was the revival of the Bills offense that was seen at the beginning of the season:
They started off the season having scored 30.8 points per game in the first four games -- bnly scored 18.8 ppg in the next four
Allen was under pressure all day, seeing a 27.7 pressure percentage
He was sacked 7 times with a decimated OL (center was out for the game and G Brian Winters went down in the second quarter)
The Seahawks only had 12 sacks going into the game but had 7 in this one
Russell Wilson had an uncharacteristic game, turning the ball over four times (2 INTs, 2 Fumbles)
The Seahawks came into the game scoring the most points in the first quarter/game but ended up with zero against the Bills due to Wilson's first turnover in the end zone
Wilson has now thrown 7 INTs in the past five games; by comparison, Aaron Rodgers has thrown 6 INTs since 2018
The Seahawks were unable to overcome the early 17-0 deficit
This was due to Wilson seeing a lot of pressure on the day
He was knocked down 16 times, which is the most of any QB so far this season

Winning Ways

The Bills with this win remain in first place in the AFC East, which is unusual over the past 20-plus years
This is the latest in the season they’ve been in first place in the division since 1996
A lot of it is due to how head coach Sean McDermott runs his program
McDermott has put together a stellar defense with plenty of underrated options in the passing game
With a 24-10 lead for the Bills at halftime, the game was pretty much over as the Bills are 23-1 under McDermott since 2017 when leading at halftime

Strength vs. Strength

The Ravens thrived last season in their ability to run the ball against everyone, by using everyone
This season, the Ravens have featured a similar approach (came into the game as the No. 1 rush attack (178.7 yards/game)
The Colts came into this game as the No. 2 run defense (79.9 yards allowed)
They were able to limit the Ravens to just 110 rushing yards, which was their lowest total in a win since Week 4 of 2018
The Ravens adapted and their defense stepped up
The Ravens defense had allowed a red-zone TD conversion rate of 81.3% (31st in NFL)
They allowed only 33% red-zone TD conversation rate in this matchup
They were also able to forced turnovers against a team that doesn’t often turn the ball over (1 fumble from RB Jonathan Taylor and 1 INT from Philip Rivers)

Story of Two Halves

The Colts came into the matchup 6-0 at home against the Ravens all-time and it looked like it might continue in the first half
The Colts were averaging 7.1 yards/play with about 11 minutes left in the second quarter, while the Ravens were only averaging 2.4 yards/play
The Ravens played even worse in the second quarter and ended the half with only 55 total offensive yards (1.8 rush yards in first half)
The 55 total yards for the Ravens was the lowest output in the first half with Lamar Jackson at QB -- a full 40 yards below their previous low (per NFL Research)
When the second half hit, the game flipped including their 31st straight game with over 100 total rushing yards (per CBS)
The Ravens accumulated 68 yards on their first drive of the second half
The Ravens offense was able to do enough (210 second-half yards) but the defense truly stepped up
Marcus Peters notched his 30th career INT in his 85th game
He joins only HOFers Deion Sanders and Ed Reed to reach that number that early in his career (NFL Research)
The Ravens defense fueled their minimal offensive output – they have the most defensive TDs since 2018 (12)
They went on to win 24-10, marking their 31st straight game with 20-plus points. This sets a new NFL record, one more game than 2012-2014 Broncos (NFL Research)

Tags: Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, Carolina Panthers See More