Breakdowns

Week 7 Statistical Review

Let’s look at some of the statistical notes from key Week 7 contests:

Steelers vs. Titans

Strength vs. Strength

  • The biggest matchup in this game was the Steelers defensive front against the Titans’ rushing offense
  • In the first half, the Steelers won the matchup, allowing only 83 total yards (27 rushing yards by Derrick Henry) and only 7 points surrendered
  • The Steelers won time of possession, 19:56 to 10:04
  • The second half featured far more offense from the Titans, including over 200 yards of offense and 17 points
  • But Pittsburgh was still committed to stopping Henry, who only had 75 yards on 20 rushes
  • The Steelers defense is now allowing only 3.38 yards/rush and 68.83 rush yards/game. Pittsburgh’s average time of possession is 33:22.

Steelers Offense: Underrated Talent/Explosiveness

  • The Steelers offense has had four different leading receivers in their six games: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, Eric Ebron and Chase Claypool
  • Weapons:
  • Smith-Schuster: 32 receptions, 267 yards, 3 TDs
  • Johnson: 24 receptions, 227 yards, 3 TDs
  • Claypool: 18 receptions, 333 yards, 4 receiving TDs, 2 rushing TDs
  • Ebron: 22 receptions, 215 yards, 1 TD
  • Claypool leads the NFL in YAC/reception at 8.7 yards and has the highest WR rating (149.3) per PFF
  • The Steelers put up 24 points in the first half against the Titans, which they have done five times since 2016 (5-0 in those games)
  • The Chiefs are the only other team that has scored 24-plus points in the first half twice this season
  • The Steelers have never lost a game when leading by 20-plus points in franchise history
  • They are now 213-0-1 (per NFL Research)

Browns vs. Bengals

A Tale of Two Mayfields

  • In the first quarter of this game, Baker Mayfield was 0-for-5 with an INT and 0 passing yards
  • From the second quarter on, he completed 22 of 23 passes for 297 yards and 5 TDs
  • Mayfield’s only incompletion was a spike
  • This includes 21 passes in a row completed after his 0-for-5 start
  • Mayfield had just a one in 19,062 chance of completing those 22 passes in a row (~.0005%), per Next Gen Stats
  • The 21 straight completions set a Browns record and he has become only the second player in NFL history to throw three go-ahead TD passes in the fourth quarter of one game (per ESPN Stats & Info)
  • Mayfield has found the most success in his career against the Bengals
  • He has seven career games with 3-plus passing TDs; four of them have been against the Bengals

The Comeback

  • This game was extremely back and forth in the second half, including a 16-yard Tee Higgins TD that put the Bengals up 27-24 with 8 minutes left in the fourth quarter
  • This pass changed the win probability from 44% to 64% for the Bengals, per Next Gen Stats
  • The lead changed five times in the fourth quarter as former first-overall picks (Mayfield and Joe Burrow) battled
  • Burrow threw for 300-plus passing yards for a fifth this season
  • The only rookie with more in NFL history is Andrew Luck (6)
  • Burrow threw his third TD of the game to Gio Bernard with 1:09 left in the fourth quarter
  • This pushed their win probability to 84.85%
  • The Browns then took the ball and marched down the field with 55 seconds left in the game
  • Mayfield completed a 24-yard pass to Donovan Peoples Jones
  • With the fourth-quarter comeback from the Eagles, Lions and the Browns, this marks just the fourth time in 30 years when there have been three game-winning TD passes in the final minute of the fourth quarter, per ESPN Stats and Info

Falcons vs. Lions

Falcons Miscue

  • The Falcons took the lead with 1:12 left on a Todd Gurley rushing TD
  • Gurley broke a few tackles and tried to stop his momentum before ultimately falling into the end zone
  • It was a 16-14 game, the Lions were winning, so Gurley’s motive was to fall short of the goal line, kill more clock and ultimately score either a FG or a TD to get the lead
  • Gurley fell into the end zone and the Falcons went up by 6 after a 2-point conversion
  • At the time of the TD, the Falcons had an 89.95% win probability
  • The Lions got the ball back after a touchback and had 1:04 left on the clock with a 6.4% win probability (per ESPN)
  • The Lions marched down the field, ultimately completing a pass to Kenny Golladay for 29 yards down the to 11-yard line (now 25.8%% win probability)
  • The Lions got to the line and spiked the ball with three seconds left
  • The Lions scored on a TD to T.J. Hockenson to complete the improbable comeback
  • The Falcons have now lost three games when their win probabilities were:
  • 99.9% vs. Cowboys
  • 99.6% vs. Bears
  • 95.9% vs. Lions
  • Matthew Stafford recorded his 30th career fourth-quarter comeback and his 36th game-winning drive in 155 career games (Per Lions PR)

Lions Early-Round Offensive Skill Position Drafting

  • Rookie second-round pick D’Andre Swift struggled to find his spot in the offense in the first four games of the season (12 rushes, 42 yards) but has been extremely productive and elusive since
  • Swift has 23 carries for 143 yards and 3 TDs in the last two weeks
  • Swift scored a TD in his third straight game, becoming one of thre Lions rookie RBs with a TD in 3-plus straight games in the last 40 years (NFL Stats and Research). The other two are Kevin Jones (2004) and Barry Sanders (1989)
  • Second-year TE T.J. Hockenson has been a major red-zone target so far this season
  • He has a TD in three straight games (including the game-winning TD in this game)
  • Tied for longest streak by Lions TE since the merger
  • He has 40% of the Lions receiving TDs
  • Fourth-year third-round pick, WR Kenny Golladay, is the difference-maker for the Lions
  • After missing the first two games, he averages 5 receptions for 84.5 yards and .5 TDs
  • The Lions offense has scored 6 more points on average in games when Golladay plays this year (and have win three of four of those games)
  1. Other Interesting Stats
    • The Cowboys are the only team in NFL history to allow 20-plus points in the first half in six straight games
    • The Saints have won 15 straight games in October dating back to 2016
    • They finished 12 of 14 on third down (second-best conversion rate in a game since 1991)
    • 85% is a franchise-worst allowed by the Panthers
    • Tyler Bass’ 8 FG attempts for the Bills is the most by any rookie kicker since the AFL-NFL merger (per NFL Research)
    • The Chargers’ win over Jacksonville was rookie QB Justin Herbert’s first game in which he hasn’t played against a QB that has won a SB MVP, MVP or been a Pro Bowler (per NFL Network)
    • The Patriots have gone three consecutive games without a first-half TD for the first time in the Bill Belichick era
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