Breakdowns
10/4/21
6 min read
Week 4 Fantasy Overreactions
Welcome to Week 4 Fantasy Overreactions! The day or two after the dust settles during the NFL season, meaning that we can take any occurrence from Sunday or Monday and make a completely wild narrative with it. We also want to make bold claims to remain ahead of the curve!
Every week, we’re going to identify five of these potential overreactions from the week's NFL action. While these are just our opinions, feel free to use your own thoughts on each narrative. The storylines have been played out, it's now our job to decide if we feel the story is fact or fiction.
The stories were aplenty this week: Brady and company barely edging out New England in his return to Foxborough. The Jets and Giants getting their first victories on the same day and in overtime! We saw Trey Lance and Justin Fields play meaningful football and all five first-round rookie quarterbacks get at least a half of playing time in Week 4.
All of this has led to some great overreactions. So as we will do each week, it’s now time to react to the potential overreactions!Â
1) Robert Woods is nothing but a FLEX play going forward
Verdict: OVERREACTION
As someone who has A LOT of Robert Woods, I'm definitely not pleased with what I've seen so far this season. Heading into Monday Night Football, Woods is WR38 and averaging only 11.5 PPR PPG. That's a far cry from WR14 at 15.3 PPG in 2020. What is even worse is his target share is down from 22 percent to 18 percent, while Cooper Kupp's has risen from 22 percent to nearly 35 percent.
Will Woods be a top 14 WR? Most likely not based off what we've seen. Can he improve from the WR38 and sneak back into the top 24? We believe he can. Don't panic on Woods just yet. Let's see if as teams continue to start sending extra defenders Kupp's way (like we saw against the Cardinals), whether the Rams find a useful counter or look to other options. Odds are, that ends with a lot more targets for Woods.
2) Ryan Tannehill is a QB2 (Quarterback ranked 13-24) for the rest of 2021
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Ryan Tannehill is currently QB18 going into Monday Night Football and he's looked every bit like it. He was actually QB26 going into his Week 3 matchup and had a decent game to climb himself up the ladder. Failing to reach 20 fantasy points in three of his first four games is definitely not encouraging.
This is once again, a Derrick Henry-led offense, but the difference is that Tannehill has not remained nearly as efficient as he's been since becoming a Titan. Tannehill is on pace for his lowest completion percentage since 2015, lowest touchdown percentage since 2012, yards per attempt since 2014, QB rating since 2015, and QBR since 2018. These were all when Tannehill was with the Dolphins. While I do think better days are ahead for Tannehill, his ceiling seems to be right around QB14-16, which would keep him as a firm QB2.
3) Sam Darnold will be a QB1Â
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Rushing is the name of the game for quarterbacks being QB1s in fantasy football, and Darnold has been just that. Darnold has 5 rushing touchdowns in 4 games this season. That is not a misprint. Using research done Troy King (@TkingMode) on Twitter, "Sam Darnold's 5 rushing touchdowns this season equal the amount he had his entire career with the Jets." Not just that, but King adds that "Darnold's three games of over 300 passing yards are just one shy of as many as he also had his entire Jets tenure."
Darnold has the weapons, the right coaching, and most importantly, he's away from Adam Gase. The creative play calling from Joe Brady, along with how well this offensive unit is operating (with or without Christian McCaffrey) gives Darnold a very safe floor and incredible upside. Lock him in as QB11 or QB12 rest of season.
4) The Browns Defense is a Top 5 Fantasy Unit
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
After the Browns D/ST had a poor showing against the Houston Texans, this group has looked absolutely terrifying over the past two weeks. The week after sacking Bears QB Justin Fields 9 times, the Browns didn't allow a single point after the Vikings opening drive in Week 4. This was part of a miserable day for the Vikings offense, as they punted six times and had less than a 33 percent success rate on 3rd down. They've also allowed 20 total points in their last 10 quarters. According to NFL.com, "The Browns have allowed single digit scoring outputs from opponents in consecutive games for the first time since Weeks 2-3 of the 1995 season."
This group is tied for 7th in D/ST rankings, and that includes a game against Patrick Mahomes in Week 1. If you look at Weeks 2-4, the Browns are the No. 4 D/ST. After their next two games against tough opponents in the Chargers and Cardinals, they get to go against the Broncos, Steelers, Bengals, Patriots, and Lions. Make sure to add them if they're on the waiver wire.
5) The Steelers Offense has no fantasy assets outside of Najee Harris & Diontae Johnson
Verdict:Â NOT ANÂ OVERREACTION
To watch a Ben Roethlisberger-led Steelers offense be THIS bad is surprising to say the least. Roethlisberger and his 6.1 yards per attempt – the lowest of his career with more than two games played – are just not getting it done. His touchdown percentage of 2.1 percent? By far the worst of his career. The horrible play from Roethlisberger leads to the poor performance of his skill position players.
Najee Harris and Diontae Johnson both have an over 20 percent target share and three of the four receiving touchdowns. Harris is also garnering 83 percent of the Rred zone carries and has 55 of the team's 58 rushes this season. Harris' usage is absurd, and with that many touches he'll be fantasy relevant even if it's not pretty. Johnson leads the team in targets through four weeks, and that's while missing a game. He's consistently getting targeted double-digit times every game. That volume will play as well. While Juju Smith-Schuster and Chase Claypool are great dart throws, they're not currently fantasy options you can trust week in and week out.
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