Breakdowns

Week 11 Big Play Index Favors The Raiders Over Cincinnati

Week 11 Big Play Index

The 33rd Team introduced the Big Play Index last season to show how NFL teams stack up in terms of big plays produced and big plays allowed.

The Big Play Index has a new and improved outlook with the help of Marc Trestman. When Trestman coached in the NFL, his definition of a “Big Play” was a run of 10-plus yards and/or a pass of 16-plus yards. Ultimately, BPI correlates the ability to create explosive plays, while also limiting the opponent, and the success of the team (based on wins).

BPI Mismatches this week:

Titans vs Houston:

This mismatch prediction stems more from the Texans being the worst team in the league at generating and stopping explosive plays, and less about the Titans being good at it. The Titans are completely even at 0 in the BPI. They have struggled more at stopping big plays through the air then on the ground as they have the 6th lowest big rushes allowed. While they also generate most of their explosives on the ground on offense. The Texans have given up the second most big runs to their opponents with 37. This could be a good game for the collection of backs the Titans will throw out there and might reward the play action more for the Titans than usual

Extra Hits (3 straight weeks the BPI has predicted an upset that has occurred)

The main prediction of this week’s games comes from Las Vegas vs Cincinnati in which the Raiders have a +24 differential in the BPI, while the Bengals are -1. The current line as of writing this has the Bengals as 1 point favorites. The BPI would suggest picking the Raiders to upset the Bengals.
Less Likely But Possible: The Vikings have a slight edge over the Packers in the BPI with a +15 differential to the Packers +14. While this might not entirely go the Vikings way, there is reason to predict by the BPI that the Vikings have the edge.