Breakdowns

Week 10 Fantasy Overreactions

Week 10 Fantasy Overreactions

Welcome to Week 10 Fantasy Overreactions! The day or two after the dust settles during the NFL season, meaning that we can take any occurrence from Sunday or Monday and make a completely wild narrative with it. We also want to make bold claims to remain ahead of the curve!

Every week, we’re going to identify five of these potential overreactions from the week’s NFL action. While these are just our opinions, feel free to use your own thoughts on each narrative. The storylines have been played out, now it’s our job to decide if we feel the story is fact or fiction.

The stories were aplenty this week: The Washington Football team stunned Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Aaron Rodgers and Russell Wilson returned from absences and both looked rusty in their duel. Cam Newton made his return to Carolina as its quarterback and the Cowboys dismantled the Falcons after their dud in Week 9. All that and more in an exciting Week 10!

All of this has led to some great overreactions. So as we will do each week, it’s now time to react to the potential overreactions! 

1) Aaron Jones’ injury leads to A.J. Dillon as a potential RB1

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

A.J. Dillon has been deemed a “lottery ticket.” That, in the fantasy football community, means someone you take later on in the draft, that could ultimately be a league winner given the opportunity to play a healthy amount of snaps. Aaron Jones went down in the Packers’ win over the Seahawks with a sprained MCL. That injury coincides with a multi-week absence. Dillon stepped into the “workhorse running back” role for the first time this season with the Packers and gave us a glimpse of what could be ahead. Dillon provided 128 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns on 23 total touches. One of those in which he dragged Bobby Wagner in the endzone. The Packers are 8-2 and shouldn’t be in a rush to bring Jones back with deep playoff aspirations in mind.

Dillon has always been a big back that shows power between the tackles but he has also displayed his pass-catching ability and importance in this offense. As long as Jones is sidelined, Dillon should be in line for 20+ touches every single week. That type of volume in this offensive system will have Dillon as a top 10 play every single week with him as the starting running back for the Green Bay Packers.

2) D’Onta Foreman is the running back you want in the Titans backfield

Verdict: OVERREACTION

The Tennessee Titans are 8-2 and just finished beating six straight opponents, five of which were in the playoffs in 2020. The Titans have overcome the toughest strength of schedule in the NFL over that stretch to now having the easiest strength of schedule the rest of the way. This is great for a Tennessee offense that looked absolutely putrid on Sunday with 264 total yards of offense and only 66 on the ground. No Titans running back carried for a gain longer than six yards, and all three Titans running backs carried the ball at 2.7 yards per carry or less. This backfield is an absolute mess and while the Titans have remained committed to the run to set up their play-action, it’s been a backfield-by-committee much of the last two weeks. In fact, these are how the backfield rushes have shaken out over the last two weeks (courtesy of Numberfire’s JJ Zachariason):

Week 9:

Adrian Peterson (45.5%)

Jeremy McNichols (31.8%)

D’Onta Foreman (22.7%)

 

Week 10:

D’Onta Foreman (47.8%)

Adrian Peterson (34.8%)

Jeremy McNichols (17.4%)

 

Combine that with Tannehill stealing some goal-line rushes and any fantasy manager shouldn’t feel comfortable with starting any of these running backs as a flex going forward.

3) We should worry about Tom Brady and the Buccaneers offense 

Verdict: OVERREACTION

This was definitely the biggest shocker of the weekend. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ poor offensive showing definitely cost many out there that do survivor pools. Tom Brady threw interceptions on the Buccaneers’ second and third drives of the game that resulted in 10 Washington points and they were never able to fully recover. This was actually the worst loss of Brady’s career after a bye and the Bucs have lost two straight games. Why should we not be worried?

Well in this game after the rough start in which the Bucs went down 13-0, Brady was able to finish the game 23 of 34 for 220 yards and two touchdowns. That looks a lot better than the box score indicates. The Buccaneers also lost to the Saints putting up 27 points and Brady throwing for four touchdowns. This team is hurting and that seems to be the biggest problem. This offense is down Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski, and had a hobbled Chris Godwin in this game. That’s three of Brady’s top four weapons either out or hurt in this game. This offense can still put up points with the best of them and we’ve learned to never count out Brady at any point. This team will get back on track and be the top 5 offense we expect week in and week out.

4) Rhamondre Stevenson should be rostered in EVERY LEAGUE

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

There was a running back knocking down defenders and bulldozing his way into the endzone yesterday. A running back that looked dare I say, “Derrick Henry-esque.” That is one Rhamondre Stevenson who averaged five yards per carry on his way to 100 on the ground, scoring two touchdowns. He also secured four of his five targets for 15 yards and showed us that he could contribute to this team through the ground and through the air.

What might be even more impressive is something that Numberfire’s JJ Zachariason dug up: Stevenson saw 69% of the running back rushes and a 20% target share. What’s interesting about those numbers? That’s only the fourth time since 2011 that a Bill Belichick running back has hit those marks. Belichick giving that type of workload to a running back is obviously very rare. The problem will be what his workload looks like with Damien Harris returning to the lineup. We’re tempering our expectations for Stevenson as a league-winner and for now as a MUST roster player regardless of league size.

5) Mike Williams is no longer a “lock it in” starter

Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION

Mike Williams is the WR17 on the year as it stands Monday morning. That doesn’t tell the whole story for Williams as it’s been a tale of two halves. Williams was the WR2 in all of fantasy football through Week 5 and the WR31 from Week 6 on. In fact, over that time, Williams hasn’t scored more than 7.8 fantasy points.

The Chargers have lost three of their last four games and have gone from one of the league’s most explosive offenses to one of the worst, having not broken 28 points over their last four games. Better days are ahead for this offense, but with Keenan Allen reasserted as the #1 wide receiver in this offense, Austin Ekeler getting 20+ touches a week, and the inconsistencies Mike Williams has shown throughout his NFL career, putting Williams in your starting lineup every week is no longer a no-brainer.

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