Breakdowns

Havoc Rate Mismatches for Week 16

Havoc Rate is a statistic that attempts to capture an offense’s ability to prevent negative plays and a defense’s ability to create negative plays. We have altered and expanded the traditional formula to include third and fourth down failures/stops.

Havoc Rate Leaderboards

The Offense and Defense leaderboards heading into Week 16 (as well as their rates expressed in standard deviations) are as follows:

Week 16

Using Havoc, what are the projected Week 16 mismatches? Here are the top 10:

Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers

In one of the best matchups of the week, the 10-4 Titans visit the 11-3 Packers. Havoc forecasts both offenses to dominate, with each appearing in the top 10 of mismatches for Week 16. These teams are built similarly, as the Packers and Titans rank first and second, respectively, in Offensive Havoc Allowed, while their defenses rank 18th and 25th in Defensive Havoc Created. Barring poor weather conditions in Green Bay, Havoc projects this game to a be a shootout. It is also an extremely important game for both teams. If the Packers win, fivethirtyeight.com calculates they will have an 88% chance of earning the NFC’s top seed. If the Titans win, they will secure a playoff spot and have an 87% chance of winning the AFC South. So, let’s dive into this game’s Havoc Mismatches.

Packers Offense vs. Titans Defense

The Packers and their league-best offense (first in EPA per play) should have no issues against the Titans defense (28th in EPA per play). The biggest driver of this mismatch is the pressure matchup. In every pressure metric, the Packers offense has a significant advantage over the Titans defense:

Aaron Rodgers should have ample time to set up a vertical passing attack that is fifth in 20-yard passes and tied for first in 40-yard passes.

Titans Offense vs. Packers Defense

Meanwhile, the Titans edge comes from their potent running attack against a susceptible Packers run defense:

Of the three games in which the Packers defense allowed its highest rushing totals, all were losses. In those losses, the opposing teams have averaged 157 rushing yards, including a 163-yard, 3 touchdown performance from Dalvin Cook. Now the Packers defense will attempt to slow down Derrick Henry, who needs 321 rushing yards in his last two games to become the eighth back in NFL history to rush for 2,000 yards. The Titans will look to ride Henry in their bid to upset the Packers in Lambeau.

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