Breakdowns

Fantasy Football Week 12 Starts/Sits

It’s time for our Week 12 Starts and Sits! Remember, we’ll do our best to predict outcomes based on what’s given to us. That’s diving into the numbers, digging through the juicy matchups, examining trends, watching the film, and collecting data that should lean towards certain players being better starts than others. While it won’t always play out that way, fantasy is a game of what’s most “likely” to happen and we need to attack it that way.

Every week we try to make some of your decision-making easier with what we’ve collected, but ultimately it’s your call on what you want to do with your team. I’ll try to avoid the slam-dunk stud plays and focus more on players you’re teetering with putting in your starting lineups. We’re going to discuss Quarterbacks, Running Backs, Wide Receivers, and Tight Ends on each week’s slate, and I hope that we can win you the week!

Now, let’s make it happen.

Quarterbacks to Start:

Russell Wilson | Seattle Seahawks: Those that drafted a lot of Russell Wilson like myself, are truly hurting right now with the lack of production you’ve been getting on the field when he’s healthy this season. Wilson has scored 10.1 fantasy points or less in his last three games and has combined for just 16.1 fantasy points over his last two. There are talks of coaching and management changes, along with potentially a new destination for Russell Wilson next year.

Let’s fade the noise for a second and look at what’s set up for Wilson this week. Wilson gets to face the Washington Football Team who just gave up over 30 fantasy points to Cam Newton in his first start with Carolina in over two years. On top of that, Washington has given up the 2nd-most passing yards and the most passing touchdowns and fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season. On top of that, Russell Wilson has a career 10-2 record on Monday Night Football with an over 103 passer rating and nearly 6% TD rate. This will be a great bounce-back spot for Wilson.

Jimmy Garoppolo | San Francisco 49ers: Over the last month, Jimmy G has completed over 70% of his passes and is averaging 22 fantasy points per game. In fact, since Week 8, Garoppolo trails only Justin Herbert and Josh Allen for most fantasy points at the quarterback position. It definitely helps the quarterback as well when you have Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle all healthy and playing together for the first time this season.

Garoppolo faces the Minnesota Vikings, who have Their defense has allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks this season at 20 fantasy points per game. This also includes the second-most since Week 8. Aaron Rodgers just torched this secondary for three touchdowns and 30+ fantasy points in Week 11 and I expect Jimmy G to have a nice day as well.

Tyrod Taylor | Houston Texans: Your QB11 from Week 11 looked great in his start against the Titans, completing over 90% of his passes and recording two total touchdowns in a Texan upset win. The rushing ability is always a threat with Taylor and he makes the Texans a competitive team whenever he takes the helm at QB.

Taylor gets the New York Jets this week, who give up the 12th most points to opposing quarterbacks and have given up 45 or more points in three of their last five games. I think Taylor could deliver a QB1 performance again in this game.

Quarterback to Sit:

Ryan Tannehill | Tennesee Titans: Tannehill may be the QB10 on the season, but he’s had three straight outings of 18.6 PPR points or less. Tannehill may have put the biggest exclamation point on just how bad he’s been by throwing a career-high four interceptions in a loss to the lowly Texans. It’s safe to say that Tannehill has been one of the biggest busts in fantasy. His opponent won’t make things easier this week.

Tannehill is facing an extremely tough Patriots defense that allows the 2nd fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks at barely over 13 points per game.  Over their last four games, the Patriots have allowed the fewest fantasy points a game to quarterbacks at 5.5 a game. Even worse? The Patriots have only allowed a QB1 performance from a quarterback twice this season and none since Week 5. Tannehill shouldn’t sniff your lineup this week.

Running Backs to Start:

Tony Jones | New Orleans Saints: We’ve already got the news that Alvin Kamara will be inactive for this game, which opens up a nice spot here for Jones. With second-string Mark Ingram being ruled out due to a knee issue, this is the Tony Jones Jr. post. Ingram so far with the Saints and without Alvin Kamara has played more than 70% of the snaps and scored 47.5 fantasy points over the last three weeks. He is RB14 over that time. Jones would likely fill in the Ingram role against the Bills on Thursday Night Football.

Jones would face a Buffalo Bills secondary that is fresh off a game of giving up over 50 fantasy points and five touchdowns on the ground to Jonathan Taylor. The Bills’ defense on the ground is not necessarily what it’s ranked as and can be beaten in the right matchups. I have Jones as an RB2 this week.

Javonte Williams | Denver Broncos: I think one of the wildest things about Javonte Williams‘ season is that he only has two touchdowns this season, and eclipsed 100 yards only once. Williams has averaged at least 4.8 yards per carry in seven of his ten games this season and has five runs of 20 or more yards. He’s explosive and the better of the two backs in the Broncos backfield, but has not received 20 touches in a game once this season. I think after the bye week, it’s finally JV time.

The Broncos are facing the Los Angeles Chargers, who are allowing an NFL-high 145.1 per game on the ground and allowed 11 touchdowns to running backs over the last five weeks. In what could be a high-scoring game, I like Williams here.

Tony Pollard | Dallas Cowboys: The Dallas Cowboys offense is a mystery as of this writing. Right now, all of Ezekiel Elliot, Ceedee Lamb, and Tyron Smith are expected to play. Keep an eye out before locking because all three of these players impact the Dallas offense in different ways. Now I would expect that Elliot and Lamb remain somewhat limited. Amari Cooper is already out due to COVID, which should leave extra targets and extra snaps to one Tony Pollard. Pollard may be the RB28 in fantasy, but he’s recorded 25 touches over the last two weeks and on the season is averaging 5.5 yards per carry. Pollard is an explosive back and just needs a path to volume to be relevant.

Coming off of nine touches for 70 yards in his last game, Pollard faces the 26th ranked Las Vegas Raiders defense that is giving up nearly 27 fantasy points to opposing running backs each game. The team that just gave up 120+ rushing yards to Joe Mixon the week prior. I think both Zeke and Pollard can have great games against this defense and be in your fantasy lineups.

Running Back to Sit:

Myles Gaskin | Miami Dolphins: Let’s start with a positive: Gaskin has had at least 15 touches in each of Miami’s past five games. He also is RB22 and scored at least 15.7 PPR points in three of his last five games. He’s also recorded at least 4 targets in the passing game in nine of his eleven games.

Gaskin has been alternating good and bad games all season, so if you’re a believer in that type of otherworldly magic, he’s due for a bad week this week. Miami also plays the Carolina Panthers who allow the third-fewest fantasy points to running backs. They’ve only given up seven scores to running backs all season and just two in the last three games. Look elsewhere than Gaskin here.

Wide Receivers to Start:

Elijah Moore | New York Jets: Shoutout to my friend Nick Skrip (@P2WFantasy) on Twitter for this call and being on him dating back to the preseason. Moore has been looking like the guy that could be a gamechanger for this Jets offense in recent weeks, having scored 13.1 fantasy points or more in four straight games and 27.4 or more in two of his last three. Moore is actually the WR1 in PPR formats since Week 8! He looks to truly be heading down the territory of a league winner.

The Jets face a Texans defense that’s allowed the 10th most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers at 37.5 per game. The Texans have also allowed seven touchdowns to wide receivers over their last four games and allowed 13 or more receptions to wide receivers over that time. Moore should be a lock in your lineup you should feel great about.

Darnell Mooney | Chicago Bears: Andy Dalton was over the moon for Darnell Mooney in Week 11, as he saw 16 targets. While the five receptions on that are troubling, he did turn that into 121 yards and a touchdown. That is now back-to-back weeks for Mooney in the top six as far as wide receiver finishes.

Mooney saw 46% of the targets with Allen Robinson out and I would expect much of the same against the Lions. The Lions have two undrafted free agents as two of their top three cornerbacks and don’t scare anyone with their defense. The Lions may rank in the Top 10 against opposing wide receivers, but I like Mooney a lot here.

Robby Anderson | Carolina Panthers: Before you throw up in your mouth reading this name hear me out. Anderson has scored more fantasy points over the last two weeks with Cam Newton at the helm, than the six games prior combined. Anderson also has seen six targets in back-to-back games. What I might be most excited about? That’s what Elijah Moore and Jamison Crowder did to the Dolphins in the slot in Week 11. The Dolphins can’t cover the middle of the field and gave up over 35 fantasy points to both those wide receivers in Week 11. Guess where Anderson plays? Anderson was in slot 60% of last game and Moore will most likely be shadowed by Xavien Howard.

The Dolphins defense has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers and while Moore should very well still have the better day of the two wide receivers for Carolina, I think Anderson could be a sneaky deep flex play.

Wide Receiver to Sit:

Kenny Golladay | New York Giants: While I’m happy to see Golladay back in the Giants lineup and healthy, he has not been what we envisioned him to be this season. Coming off of a one-catch and two-target game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. He’s actually scored 4.8 PPR points or less in three straight weeks and does not seem to be a focal point in this offense.

The Eagles have been god awful against opposing tight ends this year. Part of that reason is that they’re so good against opposing wide receivers. The Eagles have allowed the least amount of fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season and have only given up two scores to wide receivers in the last four games. Combine that with Darius Slay expected to shadow Golladay and I’m not interested in Golladay at all in this matchup.

Tight End to Start:

Dalton Schultz| Dallas Cowboys: Dalton Schultz has been a pleasant surprise this season. The 9th ranked TE in PPR formats on the season, Schultz has seen at least five targets in eight of ten games this season. In last week’s game without Cooper and some Lamb, Schultz caught 6 of his 8 targets for 53 yards and had a big role in the offense.

Schultz faces a Raiders defense that is allowing the 3rd most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, allowing 16.6 fantasy points per game. The Raiders also run one of the highest zone coverages in the league, where Schultz has done his best work this season. Schultz should be a TE1 this week.

Tight End to Sit:

Jared Cook | Los Angeles Chargers: Where should we start with this? Should it be the fact that Denver gives up the 3rd fewest points to opposing tight ends at 7.9 per game? What about the fact that Denver is the only team to not allow an opposing tight-end touchdown this season? Maybe we should look at Cook having scored 5.8 fantasy points or less in three of his last four games.

Yeah, look elsewhere.

For more follow me on Twitter @DMendy02 and check out all the great work from other authors at the33rdteam.com