Breakdowns
9/16/21
7 min read
Daily Fantasy: Week 2 Strategy Analyzer
Welcome to the Daily Fantasy Strategy Analyzer article for Week 2. Some of our Week 1 strategies hit, while a few others missed. The first section of last week's article focused on some lower-owned tournament options, in order to give you leverage off of some high-owned players. The four that we highlighted were Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, and Jonathan Taylor.
Week 1 Recap
We'll start with the bad, as Marquez Valdes-Scantling absolutely flopped with 4.7 DraftKings points. However, the process that led us to like Valdes-Scantling was the correct one. We expected Green Bay's offense to do well, which didn't happen. Despite their troubles, Valdes-Scantling's outlook isn't completely reliant on how well the offense does. He saw some downfield shots, and Aaron Rodgers continuously looked his way. He finished with 3 catches for 17 yards on 8 targets. If he hauls in one of those downfield balls, it's a completely different outlook for him. Getting 8 targets for such a cheap price in such an (expected) high-powered offense is a steal.
Also, the point of the Valdes-Scantling play was to pivot away from Marquez Callaway, who saw massive ownership for a similar price. Callaway finished with 2.4 DraftKings points, which was huge for anyone who didn't play him. Sadly, Valdes-Scantling didn't have a performance to really reap the benefits of Callaway's poor day. However, the process that led us to Valdes-Scantling was solid.
Justin Jefferson and Jonathan Taylor fell into a similar bucket, as Jefferson finished with 12.54 DraftKings points, and Taylor had 17.6 DraftKings points. Both had the potential for even bigger days, as Taylor was tackled inside of the 5-yard line multiple times. Jefferson also had some big potential, as sadly, his teammate Adam Thielen went ahead and hauled in 2 touchdowns en route to a 30.2 DraftKings point performance. If Taylor gets a few more yards and is in the endzone, or Jefferson gets one of those touchdowns, it's a completely different week.
Finally, the shining star, the man of the hour, the "cheetah" himself. Tyreek Hill did his part to make the strategy article look good, posting a 40.1 DraftKings point performance. His game-breaking speed and big-play ability always give him one of the highest ceilings on any slate. The Chiefs' offense is also extremely focused on Hill and Kelce, which puts those two in play on every slate. Stacking Mahomes with his two pass-catchers is a strategy that may be in this article every week. Sadly, they play on Sunday Night this week, so we'll need to find a different cheat code.
Week 2 Outlook
The Cowboys vs. Chargers Debacle
With Week 1 in the books, it's time to look forward and see what the field is doing on Week 2.
There are a few players who are projecting to be high-owned on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Najee Harris, Chris Carson, Keenan Allen, Cooper Kupp, CeeDee Lamb, and Austin Ekeler appear to be in the top-10 in ownership on both sites. Like last week, for a lot of these guys, you can simply decide to play them, or play a lower owned guy in that same price range. However, three of those guys have something in common. Did you catch it?
Allen, Lamb, and Ekeler are all playing in the Cowboys vs Chargers shootout. Outside of these three, Ezekiel Elliot, Mike Williams, Amari Cooper, and both QBs will garner a solid chunk of ownership. In a situation like this, you really only have two options in tournaments. You either need to go all-in or all-out. Going all-in would be using one of the quarterbacks, a few of his pass-catchers, and running it back with someone on the other team. So maybe you use Dak Prescott, Cooper, Lamb, and run it back with Williams. Attacking it from the Chargers' side works too, as you could use Justin Herbert, and stack him with Williams and Allen. Then, you can choose a Cowboys' pass-catcher to bring it back.
A secondary stack from this game doesn't seem like the best strategy. This game has an extremely high total, and a lot of people will want a piece of it. Using Mike Williams and CeeDee Lamb in a lineup with a different stack may look good, but everyone else and their neighbors are going to do that. You need to go all-in or all-out. If you run multiple lineups, maybe in one lineup you include this game stack, and in the other, you go a completely different direction.
Why Not Russ?
The Tennessee pass defense is laughably bad, and it is a spot that we plan on attacking all season long. Kyler Murray and the Cardinals torched the Titans last week, and we expect Russell Wilson to do the same. Wilson is expected to see single-digit ownership on both sites, with his pass-catchers varying from site to site. On DraftKings, D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are both going to be sub-8% owned. On FanDuel, it is a different story. The price-makers forgot who Metcalf is and priced him at only $7,000. He'll probably be above 20% owned over there, with Lockett coming in the low-teens.
On DraftKings, these Seahawks are higher priced, making them harder to fit. However, this just means the full-stack will be even lower owned. On FanDuel, the stack will be higher owned, but still, low-enough where it is a phenomenal stack in tournaments. When most people play Russell Wilson, they face the question of whether to play Metcalf or Lockett. However, we've found a new answer to this question. Why not both? Shane Waldron's new offense looked high-powered last week, and it seems like both receivers can register good games together. Both caught touchdowns last week, and we think they both will eat up this Tennessee secondary. Since most people end up choosing only one of these receivers, playing both with Wilson should provide some uniqueness to lineups.
One of the biggest aspects of this lineup is the leverage that it gives you off of Chris Carson. Carson is going to be one of the highest owned players on both websites, so stacking the Seattle passing game gives you direct leverage off of him. If the Seattle passing game does good, that means Carson probably did bad. So your stack did well, and your opponent's lineups are doing poorly since Carson didn't do well. Leverage situations like these are one's that we will recommend for you to capitalize on all season long.
The Leftovers
We'll cap it off by highlighting two other stacks that we're high on in tournaments
Kyler Murray - DeAndre Hopkins - Justin Jefferson
Kyler Murray showed last week that he is healthy and still a fantasy monster. In his 10 healthy games since the start of last season, Murray has averaged 30.56 fantasy points per game. That's pretty good if you ask me. Murray is seeing some ownership on both sites, but his No. 1 target isn't. Jefferson also won't be very high-owned, as his ownership should be in the single digits on both sites.
Tom Brady - Antonio Brown - Kyle Pitts
Father time was undefeated until Tom Brady came around. Brady came out in Week 1 and was slinging it against Dallas. He now gets another soft matchup, as the Falcons defense should pose no threat to him. Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, and Mike Evans are practically interchangeable, and with Brown projecting to be the lowest owned, he's the receiver you want in this stack. You may add in Evans or Godwin if you'd like, but you do not have to. Correlating your tight end with your stack is usually a good strategy, as tight end is constantly one of the grossest positions in DFS. Kyle Pitts gives you a chance for a bring-back, and the opportunity to correlate your tight end with your stack.
Best of luck this week everyone, let's win some money!
