Analysis
11/11/21
2 min read
Big Play Index Predicts Close One Between Lions and Steelers
The 33rd Team introduced the Big Play Index last season to show how NFL teams stack up in terms of big plays produced and big plays allowed.
The Big Play Index has a new and improved outlook with the help of Marc Trestman. When Trestman coached in the NFL, his definition of a “Big Play” was a run of 10-plus yards and/or a pass of 16-plus yards. Ultimately, BPI correlates the ability to create explosive plays while limiting the opponent and the success of the team (based on wins).
BPI Mismatch of the Week: Bills vs. Jets
This is no shock or surprise to anyone, as it's one of the top teams in the AFC vs. one that has struggled the most. The Buffalo Bills are by far the best defense in stopping explosive plays on defense, allowing only 37 so far, with the next closest being the Las Vegas Raiders at 50.
The New York Jets have been semi-effective recently through the air, but do not expect that to be the case this week. They will struggle to create explosives through the air against the No. 1 defense against the big pass. If the Jets can not create explosives through the air against this Bills' defense, they might need to rely on the run. This has been the Jets' weakness so far this season, with only 14 explosives on the ground, which despite improving in this regard the past few weeks, is 2nd to last in the NFL.
Extra Hits
Taking advice from the BPI, watch for Lions to have a much better game against the Steelers than the -8.5 line suggests. The Lions have been in a lot of games so far this season despite having no wins. With the Steelers coming off 4 big wins in a row, this game might be a close one according to BPI.
Meanwhile the Raiders, the 3rd best team in the BPI, will face a Kansas City Chiefs team that has been winning despite poor play. The Chiefs are Minus-8 in the BPI differential and the Raiders are Plus-31, making this one of the biggest margin differences of the week. Everyone keeps expecting the Chiefs to jump off the screen on offense and play better defense, but with the Raiders explosive offense, and their 2nd best mark with stopping explosives through the air, this could be a better game for the Raiders than expected.
