The 33rd Team introduced the Big Play Index last season to show how NFL teams stack up in terms of big plays produced and big plays allowed.
The Big Play Index has a new and improved outlook with the help of Marc Trestman. When Trestman coached in the NFL, his definition of a “Big Play” was a run of 10-plus yards and/or a pass of 16-plus yards. Ultimately, BPI correlates the ability to create explosive plays, while also limiting the opponent, and the success of the team (based on wins).
Houston vs Seattle
This mismatch stems from the Texans being the worst team in the league at generating and stopping explosive plays and not necessarily the Seahawks having any semblance of a top tier offense. The Seahawks defense has been able to stop explosives at a solid rate, having the 5th least big plays allowed (better run defense than pass defense). Despite issues for Russell Wilson and the offense since his return, they are in a dream explosive play matchup. The Texans offense has been historically poor at creating explosives (51 on the season, last in big runs and passes for). They have created 80 less explosive plays than the top big play offense (Eagles – 131).
Bills vs Buccaneers
One of the biggest matchups of the weekend has the Buccaneers favored over the Bills but the BPI gives the slight edge to the Bills. Despite both offenses being prolific, the BPI suspects this game will come down to the Bills ability to stop the big play against the Buccaneers ability to do the same. The Bills are the league’s best defense at stopping big plays, allowing the least big passes for, which is the strength of the Buccaneers defense. While the Bills will face their long time boogeyman in Tom Brady in a different uniform, the BPI suggests a win for Buffalo.