Analysis
10/17/21
4 min read
33rd Team DFS and Betting Roundup: Week 6
I’m a total degenerate. I used to love sports, now I just love making money from sports. If you’re like me, The 33rd Team has you covered. Our staff of football experts including current and former executives and coaches offers insight you won’t find anywhere else. While I’m no expert, I do know how to connect the dots between those insights and turning a profit. Each week, I’ll be taking some highlights from the site, and translating them into actionable steps you can use to win your DFS contests, and cash some bets.
This piece will be covering the non-DFS specific content on the 33rd team. We also feature content aimed specifically at DFS, check out the excellent work of Matthew Martin, plus my other articles.
Big Play Index (Ben Elsner)
This is a great starting point for DFS tournaments. We need chunk plays to post the kind of scores that can win you a million dollars. This isn’t as actionable for cash games (my favorite), but still could be considered -- we like our cash lineups to have a ceiling too.
Week 6 Takeaways:
DFS: Stack the Chargers and Ravens game. Both teams are in the top-three in big plays offensively, while struggling on defense.
Betting: This is a good spot to bet the over (currently 51 points, make sure to look around for the best line.)
DFS: Kareem Hunt is a must play: The Browns run offense vs Cardinals run defense is one of the bigger mismatches. With Nick Chubb out, Karrem Hunt should be in line for a huge game.
Betting: I personally have a bet on Kareem Hunt under 20.5 rush attempts. While this may seem counter-intuitive, a handful of big runs will reduce his overall volume. If he scores a 40-yard touchdown, that drive is over and there’s no more chances to rack up attempts.
Cowboys Offense is Explosive and Sustainable (Greg Cosell)
I want to key in on the “sustainable” part of this headline. Betting on the Cowboys offense has been great the past few seasons, but there’s always concerns on when it might come to an end.
Week 6 Takeaways:
DFS: Don’t forget about Zeke this week. The Cowboys rank first in average explosive run rate at 16%, and first in overall explosive play rate at 13%. Elliott has the second most first down carries in the league behind Derrick Henry. While his overall volume is down, the explosive element keeps him in play. Zeke could be forgotten with all the value plays at running back this week, but he’s in a great spot.
Betting: I like the under on Dak passing attempts. Between the early down running rate, and the explosion, there probably won’t be chances for Dak to rack up volume (see the Hunt under for further discussion on explosive rate/volume.)
Rookie Report (Charlie Parkinson)
Week 5 Rookie Report: Kyle Pitts is On His Way to Elite Status
The inclusion of wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Kadarius Toney, plus tight end Kyle Pitts, is a good sign for their rest of season outlook. Pitts is off this week, but the other two are playing on Sundays main slate.
Week 6 Takeaways:
DFS: Pretty obviously, roster Chase and Toney for tournaments. Neither one is exactly sneaky, but Chase in particular is getting less buzz than teammate Tee Higgins in DFS. Higgins is cheaper, but that should further reduce Chase ownership. Chase’s role leads to more big plays than Higgins.
Tannenbaum: Staley Puts His Trust in Justin Herbert
This one has a lot to go through, so you should probably just read the whole thing. However, here’s what stood out to me:
Week 6 Takeaways:
DFS: Justin Herbert needs to be considered a Mahomes-esque every week candidate to be the slate’s leading QB scorer.
The Chiefs defense is bad. I always liked playing pass-game pieces against them — the Chiefs explosive offense forced teams to throw constantly. Now, we can project better efficiency and volume against them. Taylor Heinicke is a great play in particular this week, he’s super cheap on DraftKings.
More evidence for Zeke. I’m telling everybody: don’t sleep on him this week. All of the cheap running backs starting due to injury (Khalil Herbert, Damien Williams, Chuba Hubbard) as well as Darrel Henderson and Kareem Hunt will be far more popular than Elliot. Zeke could outscore them all
Betting: The Chiefs game total is already the highest on the week (54.5), but it should probably still be a few points higher. Take the over.
