Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell (14) is sacked by New York Jets safety Jordan Whitehead (3) during the first quarter at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports
Following an action-packed Sunday slate, we're going through the biggest winners and losers, including team that clinched its first division title in 30 years, a spectrum of team performances and more.
It will be the first time the Lions have put up a banner in 30 years. The Lions haven't won their division since 1993, when the division was the NFC Central.
They've never won the division since the NFL expanded in 2002, and the NFC Central became the NFC North. The closest they ever got was an 11-win season in 2014, a year where they still fell short by one win to the Green Bay Packers.
It's got to feel so sweet for this particular Lions team. Think about everything that was said about them two and a half years ago when they assembled the core of this team.
Head coach Dan Campbell was thought to be a mindless meathead, and quarterback Jared Goff was cast off from an organization that no longer thought he was good enough. The rest of the roster had been scrapped for parts at various points leading up to the Campbell-Goff offseason, most notably when the team shipped starting cornerback Darius Slay to Philadelphia. New GM Brad Holmes had a massive undertaking on his hands.
That's all flipped on its head. Campbell is as forward-thinking as any head coach in the league, and he's been able to connect with his players in a visible and open way, a rare sight for an NFL head coach. Goff has earned a new lease on his football life with the way he's grown in Detroit.
The rest of the roster, while still imperfect, has been slowly built up with homegrown talent, ranging from studs in the trenches like Penei Sewell and Aidan Hutchinson to game-changing skill players such as Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and Jahmyr Gibbs.
Even with a 3-13-1 record in Year 1, the Lions never strayed from the course. They trusted the core they brought in from the jump and continued to put the right pieces around them. Slowly but surely, they've gone from the laughing stock of the NFL to a team clinching their division with two weeks left.
We can save the Super Bowl talk for a different date. For now, this Lions squad and its fans should embrace making history. Soak it all in and enjoy the ride.
Loser: Sam Howell, QB, Washington Commanders
It's time to bid farewell to the Sam Howell experience in Washington.
For the second week in a row, Howell was benched for veteran Jacoby Brissett. The benchings are telling in and of themselves, but Brissett's play has rubbed salt in the wound. Brissett immediately gave the offense new life on both occasions. He mounted a potential comeback each time, even giving the Commanders a lead late against the Jets on Sunday before the defense collapsed in the final minute.
Howell has deserved the bench in both games. Howell went 11 of 26 for 102 yards against the Rams before Brissett was thrown into the fire a week ago. Against the Jets on Sunday, Howell somehow fared even worse, going 6 of 22 with 56 yards and two interceptions.
The Rams game wasn't an all-time meltdown, but the Jets game absolutely was. There's a case it was the worst start by any quarterback this season. According to TruMedia, Howell's 21.7 percent success rate versus the Jets was the third-worst of any game this season (min. 20 attempts). Only Mac Jones versus the Saints and an ankle-less Joe Burrow versus the Browns in Week 1 was worse.
By EPA per dropback, though, Howell's -1.12 was the worst start by any quarterback all season. Not even Clayton Tune randomly being sacrificed to the Browns in Week 9 was worse than what Howell did on Sunday.
There's probably no way for Howell to come back from this, at least from the lens of returning as the team's starter. Howell had some promising moments this year, no doubt, but having his worst stretch of games towards the end of the season, in which you can see his confidence and creativity waning, will give the Commanders an easy jumping-off point.
Washington can officially throw its name into the 2024 quarterback market.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) drops back to pass against the Jacksonville Jaguars in the second quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports
Two weeks ago, they knocked off the Atlanta Falcons, who were leading the putrid NFC South at the time. Then they bludgeoned the Green Bay Packers in Lambeau, a game where Baker Mayfield posted the first perfect passer rating of his career. And on Sunday, the Bucs blew the Jacksonville Jaguars out of the state of Florida with a resounding 30-12 win.
The Jaguars game captured their little formula perfectly.
Defensively, the Buccaneers got after it by pressuring the quarterback and betting on turnovers. They got two interceptions out of Trevor Lawrence before he left the game with a shoulder injury. Lady Luck gave them a bit of help, too. The Bucs' defense recovered two fumbles in this game, one from Lawrence and another from TE Evan Engram.
The offense is kind of feast-or-famine as well, but when they feast, they absolutely go to town. While the run game is worse than useless, Mayfield and the passing offense have something. The scheme is designed to uncork Mayfield's arm down the field, and he's taken to it well.
According to Next Gen Stats, Mayfield went 5 of 7 beyond 10 yards in this game. Mike Evans, of course, was the guy on the other end of a lot of those passes, but Mayfield has shown an unwavering confidence in all of his receivers down the field. When it works, the results can be overwhelming.
None of this is to say the Buccaneers are secret contenders or anything. At the end of the day, Mayfield still is what he is, and their overall team build is too fragile to make a real run through the NFC.
Nobody expected the Bucs to be here, though. It felt like a lame duck season for head coach Todd Bowles and another team for Mayfield to waste away on as a journeyman before bouncing around again. The fallout of losing Tom Brady was supposed to sink this team entirely.
Instead, they are in the driver's seat to win the NFC South. All they have to do is beat the Saints next week or the Panthers in Week 18, or both if they really want to drive a point home.
That's an underdog story worth celebrating.
Loser: Dallas Cowboys
Close, but no cigar.
After getting beat up in the trenches and trailing for most of the match, Dak Prescott and the Dallas Cowboys offense engineered a go-ahead scoring drive. It was a 17-play drive that dragged on forever, sustaining itself with a blend of sweet throws from Prescott and penalties by the Dolphins' defense. Prescott finally got the hay in the barn with an eight-yard touchdown throw to Brandin Cooks to give the Cowboys a 20-19 lead with three minutes to go.
Dallas' defense couldn't hold up their end of the bargain.
The Dolphins ran all over them each time they handed it off on the final drive. On passing plays, the Cowboys insisted on playing off coverage and giving the Dolphins' receivers all the space in the world. Predictably, that backfired and led to a ton of easy completions. The only incomplete pass on that drive was just a miss from Tagovailoa in which Tyreek Hill was wide open.
Miami eventually got the ball down to the 11-yard line and sealed the deal with a game-ending field goal.
The Cowboys are now 3-5 on the road this season. That's not so bad on its face, but their only three road wins are against the Giants, Chargers and Panthers. On the flip side, they have lost to the Cardinals, 49ers, Eagles, Bills and Dolphins. They haven’t been able to stack up against the best teams outside of Jerry World.
More than anything, it’s the offense that’s hurt them. The defense is volatile and prone to shaly performances as well, but that’s true at home and on the road. Location doesn’t matter. For the offense, however, it does.
Dallas’ offense is a fireworks show at home. That’s not by coincidence either. When the Cowboys are at home, it’s a lot easier for them to communicate and incorporate all the shifts and motions they like to use.
Handling all of that is sort of Precott’s “super power,” but it’s harder to do in loud, chaotic road environments. When paired with the generally difficult schedule the Cowboys have faced on the road, you can get these games where the Cowboys offense never quite gets into their comfort zone.
The Cowboys played the Dolphins much closer on the road this week than they did against the Bills last week, but it’s worrying they continue to lose these games. Beating Miami was their chance to get closer to a division title and clinch at least some home playoff games before facing, presumably, the 49ers in the title game.
Instead, they’re one step closer to having to make a postseason run entirely away from the comfort of their home dome. That’s a scary place to be if you’re the Cowboys.
Winner: Miami Dolphins vs. Winning Teams
The Miami Dolphins had been the barometer all year long for which teams were good and which were not. They won all but one game against teams with losing records and were winless against teams above .500. While there's merit in constantly beating up on the bottom half of the league, the stark split raised the question about whether or not the Dolphins could beat a serious team.
Every other time they've had the chance, they have fallen short. They got blown out by the Buffalo Bills in Week 4. The Philadelphia Eagles beat them by two scores three weeks later. Two weeks later, the Kansas City Chiefs sat on the Dolphins to win, 21-14.
Beating the Cowboys on Sunday proved they can beat a serious team. The Cowboys have questions of their own when it comes to road games — and this game was in Miami — but they are one of the best handful of teams in the NFL. The Cowboys' offense can erupt at any moment, and the defense, while inconsistent, can beat you up on passing downs if you let them.
Getting that monkey off their back should serve the Dolphins well as we ramp up to the playoffs. There's no wonder whether they can beat a good team anymore. They've proven it to themselves, and they've proven it to the rest of the league. The road through the AFC is still treacherous, but at least the Dolphins finally have a win that says, "Hey, they can do this."
Fantasy
12/24/23
2 min read
2023 Fantasy Football: Takeaways From Every Week 16 Game
Dec 24, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Cleveland Browns quarterback Joe Flacco (15) attempts a pass during the fourth quarter against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports
The article below details one need-to-know takeaway from each NFL Week 16 contest, aimed at providing readers with immediately actionable fantasy football information.
Top Takeaways
Bills’ Brady Exploits Defensive Weaknesses
The Buffalo Bills' offensive coordinator Joe Brady is targeting the opposition’s defensive weaknesses to an extreme degree. The Bills ran the ball a season-high 49 times against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 15 and targeted the Los Angeles Chargers’ permissive 15.3 percent explosive pass plays allowed rate (Weeks 1-15) in Week 16.
QB Josh Allen’s 28.6 percent 20-plus-yard average depth of target rate against Los Angeles more than doubled his previous high (12.5 percent). Buffalo faces the New England Patriots in Week 17, whose 31.8 percent quarterback pressure rate ranks sixth-worst in the NFL, signaling a likely pass-heavy approach for Brady.
Trust Cooper, Flacco QB2 vs. Jets in Week 17
As detailed in Takeaways From Every Week 15 Game, Cleveland Browns’ QB Joe Flacco was a good bet to extend his three-game 300-yard-passing streak and return value as a fantasy football QB1. He completed 27 of 42 passing attempts for 368 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. He added one yard rushing en route to 24.8 fantasy points, making good on last week’s prediction.
Amari Cooper caught 11 of 15 targets for 265 yards receiving and two touchdowns, en route to 51.5 points-per-reception points (PPR).
The dynamic duo faces a stiff test against the New York Jets’ elite pass defense in Week 17. Fantasy managers can trust Cooper to return WR2 value. However, Flacco should be reduced to a high-end QB2 although his high-end passing volume keeps him QB1-eligible.
Mostert Primed For Big Week 17
Miami Dolphins No. 1 RB Raheem Mostert briefly entered the blue medical tent toward the end of the first half after taking a lateral hit to the interior of his left knee. He returned in time to score on a four-yard reception with 21 seconds left in the second quarter, salvaging an otherwise quiet day (12.0 PPR points). Fantasy managers should monitor the news for post-game swelling reports and Week 17 expectations, however, Mostert appears ready for a featured workload in an expectedly high-scoring game against the Baltimore Ravens.
Remaining Storylines
Los Angeles Rams running back Ronnie Rivers (20) runs the ball against the New Orleans Saints during the second half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Stash Rams’ Rivers
Los Angeles Rams backup RB Ronnie Rivers’ return rendered formerly featured backups RB Royce Freeman and RB Darrell Henderson inactive in Week 16. Rivers (knee) and starting RB Kyren Williams (high-ankle sprain) landed on injured reserve following their respective Week 6 injuries, allowing Freeman and Henderson to handle feature roles.
Rivers totaled six rushing attempts, ran five routes, one passing-down snap and one red zone snap in his return. That solidifies his status as the preferred Los Angeles backfield bench stash for fantasy football managers.
As detailed in Takeaways From Every Week 15 Game: “Boyd’s 1.18 YPRR is his lowest per-route efficiency average since 2017. Fantasy managers should expect coach Zac Taylor to prioritize evaluating WR Tee Higgins and 2023 rookies WR Andrei Iosivas.”
Higgins and Iosivas totaled eight targets apiece, operating as the team’s top two pass catchers. Fantasy managers should not trust Boyd to improve his standing in a Week 17 matchup against Kansas City Chiefs slot CB Trent McDuffie.
Add Colts’ Mallory In Dynasty
The Indianapolis Colts boast a deep, star-less tight end corps. Fifth-round rookie Will Mallory is beginning to separate from the pack. Mallory totaled four receptions and 47 yards receiving on four targets in Week 16.
His 20.9 percent targets per route run (TPRR) rate and 1.63 yards per route run (YPRR) rank Nos. 3 and 2, respectively, among seven NFL rookie tight ends with at least 15 targets. His respective rates lead Indianapolis tight ends by 3.1 percent and 0.35 yards.
Doubs Likely Featured In Week 17
The Green Bay Packers were without Nos. 1 and 2 wide receivers, Christian Watson (hamstring strain) and Jayden Reed (toe/chest), after both players failed to practice all week.
WR Dontayvion Wicks notched two receptions, 29 yards receiving and one touchdown on two targets before a chest injury forced him from play, leaving Romeo Doubs as the de facto No. 1 wide receiver.
Doubs will be a top waiver wire target this week ahead of Green Bay’s Week 17 game against the Minnesota Vikings. The Vikings allow 168.5 yards receiving allowed per game to opposing wide receivers, the NFL’s eighth-highest average.
Mullens Repeats As Effective Distributor
Minnesota Vikings QB Nick Mullens totaled 411 yards passing, two touchdowns passing, four interceptions and one yard rushing en route to 16.5 fantasy points.
Mullens completed passes to eight Minnesota pass catchers despite losing TE T.J. Hockenson (knee) and WR Jordan Addison (ankle) to injuries. WR Justin Jefferson and RB Ty Chandler should have featured Week 17 roles against a Green Bay Packers’ defense allowing a 66.0 percent completion rate to opposing quarterbacks, the NFL’s 12th-highest rate.
Jets' Hall Hits Multiple Career Highs
New York Jets RB Breece Hall posted his best rushing line since Week 5, taking 20 rushing attempts for 95 yards rushing and two touchdowns rushing.
His 16 targets and 12 receptions are career-highs, which he transformed into 96 yards receiving. His 43.1 PPR points are all but guaranteed to settle in as the Week 16 positional high.
Fantasy managers who successfully advanced to the playoffs with Hall on their roster, despite his down year, will likely possess a significantly unique roster in large-field tournaments.
Okonkwo’s six targets tied for the team-high, boding positively for his Week 17 streaming viability. He plays a Houston Texans’ tight end-coverage unit that ranks outside the top 20 in catch rate allowed (73.8 percent), adjusted yards allowed per route run (0.85) and explosive pass plays allowed rate (13.5 percent).
Engram Retains High-Volume Role
Jacksonville Jaguars TE Evan Engram caught double-digit targets (10-of-15) while producing 95 yards receiving, this time adding two touchdowns receiving, for the second time in three games. His high-volume role with slot WR Christian Kirk on injured reserve remains secure heading into a Week 17 matchup against a Carolina Panthers’ tight end-coverage unit prone to surrendering big plays and a high catch rate. Carolina allows explosive pass plays to opposing tight ends at a 15.4 percent rate, the NFL’s sixth-highest. Their 70.3 percent catch rate ranks 14th-highest.
Demercado Secured Cardinals’ Passing-Down Role
Arizona Cardinals backup RB Emari Demercado distanced himself from fellow backup RB Michael Carter this week, hogging 93.0 percent of the backfield’s passing-down snaps (14 snaps). Demercado totaled 40 yards receiving and seven receptions on eight targets, adding 10 yards rushing on two rushing attempts. Arizona opened as 9.5-point FanDuel road underdogs against the Philadelphia Eagles for Week 17, signaling a Demercado-friendly game script for fantasy football championship weekend.
Broncos’ Stars Flop Following Sutton’s Concussion
The Denver Broncos lost No. 1 WR Courtland Sutton to a first-quarter concussion, and neither No. 2 WR Jerry Jeudy nor RB Javonte Williams rose to the occasion. Jeudy’s five targets tied three Denver role players for the team-high; he returned just three receptions for 44 yards receiving.
Williams produced just 19 yards from scrimmage and one touchdown rushing on 11 total touches. Nos. 2 and 3 RBs Samaje Perine (1.50 YPRR) and Jaleel McLaughlin (6.2 yards per rushing attempt and 3.33 YPRR) bested him on a per-play basis.
Denver’s Week 17 matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers’ permissive defense creates mild, if uneasy, flex viability for Jeudy and Williams should Sutton fail to clear the concussion protocol.
Rich Gannon simply doesn’t see the same explosive Houston Texans offense without injured rookie QB C.J. Stroud, and Houston finds itself currently out of the playoffs after 16 weeks.
After a blowout win over Houston and a career-best performance from star WR Amari Cooper, Rich Gannon explains why the Cleveland Browns are a team nobody wants to see in the postseason.
NFL Analysis
12/24/23
1 min read
NFC North Champion Detroit Lions Can Make Noise in Playoffs
Rich Gannon applauds the job done by Dan Campbell and the 2023 NFC North Champion Detroit Lions. Gannon thinks Jared Goff and company can make some noise in the upcoming playoffs.
Expert Analysis
12/24/23
8 min read
Biggest Winners, Losers from Saturday's NFL Week 16 Games
Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Mason Rudolph (2) drops back to throw from the Steelers end zone in the second quarter of the NFL 16 game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cincinnati Bengals at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh. The Steelers led 24-0 at halftime.
Following an action-packed two-game Saturday slate, we're going through the biggest winners and losers, including two backup quarterbacks, a spectrum of skill-position performances and more.
Winner: Mason Rudolph, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
We will avoid all of the overused "Rudolph Saves Christmas" puns because he deserves more respect than that. After not starting a game since 2020, Mason Rudolph played the best game of his NFL career in Week 16.
He started the game with an 86-yard touchdown to George Pickens to give the Steelers a 7-0 lead. On the next drive, Rudolph led the Pittsburgh Steelers right down the field for another touchdown. From that point, the Steelers had complete control of the game, and Rudolph was completely in command.
While the game was never really in danger for the Steelers, Rudolph made a big play every time his team needed one. His best throw of the day came on a third-and-1 in the second half, dropping a dime to Pickens on the sideline for a huge touchdown.
Pittsburgh had its best offensive performance of the season, scoring 34 points and totaling 397 yards. He had a passer rating of 124.0, the highest for any Steelers' QB this season.
The question now is whether or not Rudolph will start in Week 17 over a healthy Kenny Pickett, as the Steelers try to keep their (slim) playoff hopes alive.
Loser: Jake Browning, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
Jake Browning was one of several young backup quarterbacks playing well this season, leading the Cincinnati Bengals to three straight wins. But the two games in which Browning has struggled came against the Steelers.
In the first meeting, the Bengals scored just 10 points and threw a critical red zone interception. He was worse in Week 16, throwing three interceptions and turning the ball over on downs three times. Browning wasn’t seeing the field well, and his turnovers were just bad throws where he was trying to do too much.
It also didn't help that Browning threw too many passes at the line of scrimmage, which doesn't work against Pittsburgh. The way to beat the Steelers is to throw the ball over the middle of the field and attack their linebackers and safeties.
Instead, Browning opted to throw the ball at the line of scrimmage and to the sideline, where the Steelers could rally to the football and make tackles. It was poor game planning by the Bengals and worse execution by Browning.
The result? The Bengals were blown out against the Steelers and saw their playoff hopes dashed. The Bengals still sit at 8-7 but are 0-5 in the AFC North and don’t have many tiebreakers.
Browning has done a good job filling in for Joe Burrow, but this is just another reminder of why he's a backup quarterback. After a few impressive outings, his play — and the Bengals’ — came crashing to earth in Week 16.
Winner: George Pickens, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
It’s been quite the week for George Pickens. After being called out by his coach, teammates and the entire national media, there was no guarantee Pickens would play in Week 16. But Mike Tomlin decided to stick with his second-year receiver, which paid off handsomely.
As mentioned above, Pickens started the game hot with a huge touchdown. That play alone would have been enough for most receivers, but Pickens didn’t stop there.
He scored a 66-yard touchdown in the second half to prevent a potential comeback from the Bengals. Plus, he had one of the most incredible sideline catches you’ll ever see before halftime on a third-and-15 to set up a field goal for the Steelers.
Pickens finished the game with four catches for 195 yards and two touchdowns in what would be a career performance by him. He desperately needed this type of game after several weeks of subpar play.
If the Steelers want to make a run in the next two weeks, Pickens will need to continue to play at an elite level. The good news is Pickens has the potential to be as good as any receiver in the NFL. And that’s what is so frustrating about his season.
Loser: James Cook, RB, Buffalo Bills
After a huge performance against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 15, James Cook came back to earth in Week 16. Not only did the Los Angeles Chargers contain him, but they also made Cook pretty ineffective. He rushed for just 70 yards on 20 carries and did not earn a single target in the receiving game.
Considering how great he looked last week against the Cowboys, this was a stark difference.
But his inefficiency in the run game isn't why he's on this list. It's the fumbles. Cook had two more fumbles in Week 16, one of which the Chargers recovered in Buffalo's territory. That fumble led to a field goal by Los Angeles, giving them the lead late in the fourth quarter.
The Buffalo Bills did go back to Cook on the next drive, but it was noteworthy that Leonard Fournette got several carries at the end of the game when the Bills were trying to kill the clock.
Cook’s fumbles have been why the Bills have lost some of their games this season, and it’s a shame because he might be their most important skill player behind Stefon Diggs.
Cook has more than 1,000 rushing yards for the first time in his NFL career, but this was not his best game. In fact, his play on Saturday night almost cost the Bills a chance at the playoffs. Buffalo was lucky to survive, but it will need Cook to play much better in the next two weeks if it wants to sneak into the postseason.
Winner: Ed Oliver, DT, Buffalo Bills
The Bills have desperately needed someone to step up on defense in the last few weeks, as they push for the playoffs. The hope was Von Miller or Gregory Rousseau would be the difference-maker in December, but that hasn’t been the case.
Instead, it’s veteran DT Ed Oliver, who is having the best season of his career.
Oliver created constant pressure against the Chargers' interior offensive line in Week 16. He was routinely double-teamed but still impacted plays.
He made the play of the game for the Bills, recording a sack on Easton Stick on first down on the game's final drive. The Chargers only needed a field goal to win, and Oliver’s sack was a killer. Without any timeouts, the Chargers were forced to rush to the line and only got off two more plays on the game's final drive. Even on second down, Oliver created enough pressure to force an errant throw by Stick.
Oliver finished the game with four tackles (three solo), two sacks, two QB hits and two other tackles for a loss. He was the best player on Buffalo's defense, and his late-game heroics helped seal the win for the Bills.
Buffalo now sits at 9-6, and if it wins the final two games, it will be in the postseason. And if Oliver continues to play like this, the Bills can make some real noise in January.
Loser: Quentin Johnston, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
With Keenan Allen and Mike Williams out of the lineup due to injuries, this was a critical opportunity for Quentin Johnston to step up for the Los Angeles Chargers.
The No. 21 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Johnston was the second wide receiver off the board last April. Unfortunately, he has not had a significant impact on the Chargers during his rookie season.
They've tried to give him plenty of opportunities to succeed, but something always seems to go wrong. A perfect example was an end-around play in the red zone that went to Johnston, who gained 13 yards and would have given the Chargers a first-and-goal from the 4-yard-line.
Instead, the play was called back due to an illegal formation penalty, as Johnston wasn’t on the line of scrimmage. The line judge signed that Johnston needed to move up, but the rookie receiver never moved an inch.
The Chargers were forced to kick a 40-yard field goal three plays later. That was potentially a four-point mistake by Johnston in a game decided by two points. That type of play has haunted Johnston all year, and it's one of the reasons why the Chargers are 5-10. They just haven’t gotten enough from their top draft pick.
Johnston finished this game with just 29 yards on five targets. Despite playing without Allen or Williams, it was the second straight week he could not clear 30 receiving yards. With so many other rookie receivers playing well, it's not hard to be discouraged about Johnston's play this year.
Minnesota Vikings running back Ty Chandler (32) carries the ball in the first quarter of a Week 15 NFL football game between the Minnesota Vikings and the Cincinnati Bengals at Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati.
It's common for DFS players to key in on the same expected top plays each week, or 'chalk plays' if you will. Each week, we'll look at the expected chalk plays with tips and best practices to improve your roster construction.
We’ll also explore theoretical and conceptual areas of roster construction in DFS as we examine various pieces of chalk throughout the season, with the goal to grow as players along the way. Numerous tips, or best practices, will emerge from this exploration. With that, and in our best Bruce Buffer voice, it’s time!
Week 16 Chalk
New York Jets D/ST
The New York Jets are a solid, not great, on-paper play this week. Their defensive scheme does better at suppressing offensive production than creating disruptive opportunities (sacks and turnovers). Any defense expected to be among the highest-owned singular entities on a slate deserves fade/underweight consideration.
Ty Chandler, Minnesota Vikings
Yes, Ty Chandler saw a robust workload a week ago against the Cincinnati Bengals, handling 27 running back opportunities in the overtime thriller. Three things – that game went to overtime, that was the first instance of a Minnesota running back eclipsing 100 yards on the ground this season and it was against a Bengals team allowing 4.7 yards per carry this season (second worst).
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Excuse my sense of hilarity with this situation. First, Rachaad White is the most expensive running back on the slate. Then, you’re telling me he will be one of the highest-owned backs on the slate, to boot? I don’t understand this one at all.
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
I’m not sure why the field would consider Justin Jefferson a better objective play than, say, Tyreek Hill, Amon-Ra St. Brown, or CeeDee Lamb on this slate — all of whom are playing with their starting quarterback — while Jefferson is catching passes from the fourth starting quarterback utilized by the Vikings this season.
Breece Hall, New York Jets
Breece Hall is objectively a solid on-paper play this week. That said, I slightly prefer his teammate, Garrett Wilson, after the latter saw six of the first 12 Trevor Siemian passes directed his way last week (two were negated by penalty; the box score shows only four targets for Garrett Wilson after Zach Wilson didn’t target him in the first half and he was removed from the game late in a blowout).
Trey McBride, Arizona Cardinals
Trey McBride is an objectively solid on-paper play in the absence of Marquise Brown against a Chicago Bears defense that naturally filters production to opposing tight ends. The biggest theoretical dynamic involving McBride this week is the presence of five other tight ends that also carry an elite ceiling.
DJ Moore, Chicago Bears
DJ Moore has elite underlying metrics against man coverage this season but sees his target rate (19.9 percent), TPRR (15.5 percent), and air yards share against zone. This is important, considering the Arizona Cardinals are in the zone at the fourth-highest rate in the league this year.
Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
A similar discussion to the one above can be had for Justin Fields. Fields is at his best when he can remove the need to read and diagnose a defense – just go play ball. He now gets a matchup with the shallow Cover-2 shell of the Cardinals, which aims to force the exact things Fields struggles with.
What’s Most Important in Week 16
There are very few places of certainty on a slate riddled with games that carry wide ranges of potential outcomes. That said, we still have a couple of spots for team-based certainty and a few spots for individual certainty.
The Cleveland Browns have handed the keys to the offense over to Joe Flacco. The best part of that is that there were no strings attached, with the offense allowing Flacco to do Flacco things. That has translated to three consecutive games of a positive pass rate over expectation, with pass attempts values of 44, 45, and 44 over his previous three.
Even more interesting than that has been the extreme concentration of those looks. Amari Cooper left the first game early after seeing five targets. During the subsequent two games, 44 of 89 Flacco pass attempts have been directed at the combination of Cooper and tight end David Njoku, good for a tidy 49.4 percent combined team target market share.
On the other side of that same game, the Houston Texans take on a Cleveland defense allowing 30.7 points per game on the road this season and should have an offense highly concentrated among Devin Singletary (Dameon Pierce being phased out of the offense; Singletary has opportunity counts of 32, 24, 13 and 31 in the four games this season in which he has played 75 percent or more of the team’s offensive snaps), Nico Collins (questionable, calf) and Noah Brown. This game has all the makings of a fantasy gold mine, with concentration, scoring potential, and desperation factor (each team playing for its playoff lives) all present.
Like the discussion on Singletary, Chuba Hubbard has seen opportunity counts of 25, 25 and 24 in the three games since the team fired head coach Frank Reich, who was calling offensive plays for this franchise prior to his departure.
Those games came against the stout run defenses of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons, with the veteran journeyman now graced with a trip to Lambeau to take on the sieve-like Green Bay Packers run defense. Those two backs offer a clear path to 50+ running back opportunities at a combined salary of just $11,200 on DraftKings and are in much better on-paper matchups than the chalky Chandler.
The final piece of certainty on this slate is a wide receiver aiming to set history, playing in the game with the highest game total on the slate, that is somehow coming in at sub-10 percent expected ownership (likely due to the relative lack of projectable value on this slate).
That man is Tyreek Hill. Ankle be damned, if he is on the field, I want him on my rosters. Hill gains increased importance on a slate where the score needed to ship GPPs will likely be down, increasing the importance of raw points in the process.
Building Leverage
The most interesting aspect of this slate is that we don’t have to do much to generate meaningful leverage, considering none of those “spots of certainty” are expected to garner prohibitive ownership levels. In other words, this is one of those rare slates where you can simply choose the best on-paper plays and watch as the field stumbles over itself.
The final thing I’ll note before we get out of here is the field’s relative disdain for playing multiple tight ends on a roster and for playing three running backs on a roster in the current NFL landscape. This is a unique slate in that the tight ends priced above $5,000 carry median projections and ceilings that are comparable to, or greater than, the wide receivers priced in the same area.
In other words, they are better on-paper plays than the wide receivers priced around them. We can generate meaningful leverage on this slate simply by thinking outside the box and straying from the inherent biases that the previous five seasons have invoked in our minds.
That will do it for our Week 16 exploration of chalk and some theoretical and conceptual takeaways. We’ll be running this series every week of the 2023 season, picking out new learning points with each week. I welcome all feedback with this new column, so please don’t hesitate to reach out to let me know things you like or things I could do better.
While previewing the Baltimore Ravens vs. the San Francisco 49ers, Chuck Pagano and Mike Martz examine one of the teams to make MVP candidate Brock Purdy look mortal and explain how the 49ers must be disciplined against Lamar Jackson on Christmas night.
Fantasy
12/23/23
3 min read
2023 NFL Week 16: Top Underdog Higher, Lower Entries To Consider
Pittsburgh Steelers running back Jaylen Warren (30) runs the ball against the Arizona Cardinals during the third quarter at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
We will evaluate the projections available on Underdog Fantasy each week and craft entries that leverage game environments and correlation to maximize value.
WEEK 16 HIGHER/LOWER ENTRIES
Trevor Siemian HIGHER than 10.55 Fantasy Points, Garrett Wilson HIGHER than 61.5 receiving yards and Curtis Samuel HIGHER than 3.5 receptions
5.16x your entry fee on Underdog Fantasy
The Washington Commanders travel to take on the New York Jets at Metlife Stadium. No defense has performed worse against the pass this season than the Commanders. Ranking last in dropback expected points allowed (EPA), the Jets’ offense will have the opportunity for big plays.
Crucially, Trevor Siemian only has to record at least 10.56 fantasy points to exceed his projection. If Siemian has zero rushing production, he can still exceed his projection with only 200 passing yards, one passing touchdown and an interception. When Siemian does not struggle against the Commanders' pass defense, Garrett Wilson often will haul in at least 62 receiving yards.
The Commanders' extreme pass-heavy tendencies should carry through even against a strong passing defense like the Jets. Curtis Samuel has seen at least half of the team's offensive snaps in 11 games this season. He has recorded at least four receptions in eight such games. When injuries have not limited Samuels' snaps, he is likelier to record four receptions.
Jordan Battle HIGHER than 5.5 tackles and assists, Jaylen Warren HIGHER than 66.5 rushing and receiving yards and Jake Browning LOWER than 240.5 passing yards
6x your entry fee on Underdog Fantasy
As the Cincinnati Bengals visit the Pittsburgh Steelers in a matchup of backup quarterbacks, the Bengals are without run-stuffing defensive tackle D.J. Reader and star wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase. Despite admirable recent performances from backup quarterback Jake Browning, the Steelers’ eleventh-ranked defense in EPA per dropback and dropback success rate allowed may be daunting without Chase.
On the other side of the ball, the Steelers may design more plays for their most explosive player, Jaylen Warren. Whether out of the backfield in the receiving game or on the ground, Warren remains a key to the Steelers’ offensive success. When the Steelers move the ball successfully, Warren’s success at getting to the second level also makes Bengals’ box safety Jordan Battle more likely to record at least six tackles and assists.
Rico Dowdle LOWER than 25.5 rushing and receiving yards, De’Von Achane HIGHER than 47.5 rushing yards and Brandon Aubrey LOWER than 2.5 made extra points
6x your entry fee on Underdog Fantasy
As the Dallas Cowboys take on the Miami Dolphins in one of the week’s most exciting games, there is value in building off a game script where the Dolphins have far more success than the Cowboys on offense. In recent media sessions, coach Mike McDaniel has mentioned the desire to give more touches to De’Von Achane. With another week to recover from injury, Achane should project for low double-digit carries. Against a Cowboys defense that ranks 32nd in rushing success rate allowed and near league average in rushing EPA, Achane has a favorable matchup.
Rico Dowdle is less likely to see work, as Dallas has to play from behind. If Dallas struggles to move the ball on offense, they will not have the luxury of late-game carries for Dowdle to wind down the clock. Additionally, in games where Dallas fields fewer long drives, kicker Brandon Aubrey becomes less likely to record at least three made extra points.
