Betting
10/14/22
7 min read
Week 6 Matchups: Betting Breakdowns for Every Game
I provide in-depth analysis on every game, every week from a sports betting perspective. You can find all of those articles and a short summary for each game right here. The links for each game will bring you to that contest’s matchup article. Sunday Night and Monday Night Football will be updated on Saturday. I’ll also provide any injury or weather-related updates during our live blog on Sunday morning starting at 10:00 a.m. EST.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
We kick things off with the heavyweight matchup everyone wants to see with Patrick Mahomes' Chiefs against Josh Allen’s Bills. This feels like a playoff game, so I treated it like one with a more extensive deep dive than normal. Both teams enter this contest with 4-1 records, despite very difficult early season schedules. The winning quarterback of this game goes to the front of the MVP race, and realistically speaking that could be either of these teams. I lean towards the Buffalo side because they have a better defense, and the Bills no doubt have a bad taste in their mouths after last year’s overtime loss in Kansas City during the playoffs.
Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Rams
This contest is one that you need to get right in survivor pools on a semi-difficult slate. Last week, I faded the Jaguars chalk in survivor. This week, I’m comfortable taking the Rams coming off two losses against a Panthers team that just fired head coach Matt Rhule. The move from Rhule to Steve Wilks is something I view as a positive for the Panthers, I don’t feel the same way about P.J. Walker filling in at quarterback. If Aaron Donald, Sean McVay, and Matthew Stafford lose to P.J. Walker this week, I can live with that.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers' secondary will be down cornerbacks Ahkello Witherspoon, Cameron Sutton, and Levi Wallace, as well as star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick. In this article, I discuss my interest in playing this game in DFS this week. All of these Steelers defenders being ruled out has strengthened that stance. Tom Brady has had the Steelers' number throughout his career, and the Bucs are a strong option in survivor pools this week.
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons
I won’t be touching this game from an ATS standpoint, but as mentioned on the Player Prop Happy Hour, I took Deebo Samuel to exceed 4.5 receptions before the juice on that bet rose. The entire 49ers' front four was on the injury report as of this writing, so this is a contest I’ll be directly addressing in our live blog on Sunday morning.
New York Jets at Green Bay Packers
This is an interesting game, because the Packers are in a classic correction spot. However, Green Bay is also coming off a trip to London, their offense has been underwhelming to this point in the season, and the Jets have built a roster filled with young, talented players. I have some interest in playing a mini correlation from this game in DFS, but I’m currently leaning towards avoiding it against the spread.
Baltimore Ravens at New York Giants
I expected the bottom to fall out for the overachieving Giants last week against the Packers in London. That didn’t happen, as the Giants shut out Green Bay in the second half on the way to their comeback win. I could easily see that correction coming against Baltimore, as the Giants are coming off an emotional win in a game played in Europe.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
As we discussed on Betting the NFL last Monday, this was an eye-catching opening line where Chris and I’s immediate instinct was that the Colts win this game. The Colts will be down start linebacker Shaquille Leonard once again, and Jonathan Taylor’s status is still in question.
Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints
Another game that caught our attention on Betting the NFL was the Bengals only giving one point to open the week. That’s not longer the case, as it’s now Bengals -2.5 to Bengals -3. The Saints will be down wide receivers Michael Thomas and Jarvis Landry, along with stud cornerback Marshon Lattimore. I took the Bengals earlier in the week, and I’ll take them in at least one of my tournament entries. I’ll also be taking Joe Burrow to exceed 252.5 yards passing in his return to Louisiana.
Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins turn to their third-string quarterback Skylar Thompson in this matchup. Mike McDaniel is well-equipped to come up with a smart gameplan for the seventh-round rookie quarterback, but ultimately, this game boils down to Minnesota being consistent. If the Vikings play well here, they should take care of business. If you’ve bet on the Vikings this season, you know that they are a talented, but frustrating team.
New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns
This is a tough one for me, as the Browns have a very good roster, and Jacoby Brissett’s offense has been better than anyone could have hoped. They’ll be facing Bailey Zappe in his second career start. From a pure talent perspective, the Browns should run away with this one. Unfortunately for them, Patriots head coach Bill Belichick is the great equalizer with his opponent specific game plans.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
This is an interesting game with a number of interesting prop options. I won’t finalize until Sunday, but I expect that I will take the Cardinals with at least one tournament entry. I will play this game in DFS, and I will likely play the core components from both passing attacks in props if I can find any good numbers this weekend.
Sunday Night Football: Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
Most would agree that Chiefs vs. Bills belongs in a primetime spot, but Eagles vs. Cowboys is a very good consolation prize. I think the Eagles have the best roster in football, and that Nick Sirianni’s coaching staff is an asset. If Jalen Hurts continues to play at this current level, the Eagles are going to be a very tough out. I’ll dive into it more once this matchups article is live, but I think this is the game the Cowboys miss Dak Prescott.
Monday Night Football: Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
Over the last decade or so, I’ve taken a lot of Russell Wilson when he’s a greater than 3-point underdog. Maybe the Broncos broken offense gets well against a Chargers defense that somehow isn’t any better than it was last year. I’ll dive into some potential outcomes in this matchup on Saturday.
In case you’re curious: Washington Commanders at Chicago Bears
Watch More: How Jets GM Joe Douglas Turned His Team Around
