Week 1 was great for player props since we went 7-4-1. I am also confident two of the losses were caused by the monsoon in Chicago. The passing games for the Bears and 49ers could not operate as normal last week.
On Thursday night, we went 2-2, and I’m hoping with the following props, we will have our second straight winning week. As always, the player props are listed in order from my least favorite to favorite.
Lamar Jackson UNDER 53.5 rushing yards
In Week 1, the Ravens ran 53 plays. That’s the third-lowest amount of plays they’ve run in the last three years. It is also 16 less than the 69 plays per game they averaged last season. Jackson’s 6 rush attempts were his second-lowest rush attempt total in the last three years for games he’s played the entirety of.
Granted, Jackson has averaged more than 70 rush yards per game during the last few seasons. However, I am expecting the low rush attempts to continue for Jackson. I also do not think it is a coincidence Jackson had one of his lowest number of rush attempts in the first game after the negotiations for his new contract stalled. This line is razor-thin, so I would not play it if it drops any lower.
Michael Carter OVER 17.5 receiving yards
Breece Hall stole all the headlines with his 10 targets, but most of those targets came in garbage time as Joe Flacco aired it out in the second half. In the fourth quarter alone, Flacco had 29 attempts. That was more pass attempts than Tom Brady had in Week 1 during the entire game.
In the first half – before the game got out of hand – Carter had 4 targets for 3 receptions and 24 yards. He also was the only Jets running back to run a route on third down in the first half. I expect his usage through the receiving game to continue. Therefore, I will play this over up to 20 receiving yards but will not play it higher than that.
Jonathan Taylor OVER 99.5 rushing yards
Rinse, wash and repeat last week’s process. Last season – when the Colts were pregame betting favorites – Taylor averaged 125.1 rushing yards per game. In the five wins in games they were favorites for, Taylor averaged 149.2 rushing yards per game. I foresee coming back to this play over and over this season whenever the Colts are favorites. I will be playing the over up to 110.5 rush yards.
Christian Kirk OVER 59.5 receiving yards
Kirk was heavily utilized in the Jaguars offense in Week 1, getting 12 targets for 6 receptions and 117 yards. Even if you remove his 49-yard reception, Kirk still had more than 30% of the team’s air yards. I expect the high-volume role to continue. While the Colts do have a solid defense, it is not scaring me away from this play. It does make me not want to play this line much higher, though. I would play it over up until around the mid-60s.
Donovan Peoples-Jones OVER 35.5 receiving yards
This is one of those player props that I really don’t understand why it is as low as it is. There are several angles you can look at this line, and anyway you look at it, the over is an amazing play. Peoples-Jones had an elite 37% target share last week and was one of only 20 wide receivers to see 10 or more targets in Week 1.
If this high-volume role continues, this should be an easy win. Jackson was successful deep through the air against the Jets last week. If Peoples-Jones reverts more to a deep threat than a volume receiver, this play is still very good against that same Jets defense. I would play this line confidently up into the mid-40s and probably stop betting it if the line hits 50.