Betting
9/14/22
4 min read
Week 2: Chargers-Chiefs Thursday Night Football Prop Bets
After a very successful first week of props, we are onto Week 2 with another high-powered Thursday night matchup. With a 54.5 points total for the game, Vegas is expecting a high-scoring game. I have to agree with them. I found it hard to find many unders I felt any sort of confidence betting. Therefore, I have a slate of all over picks again. As always, props are listed in the order in which I like them, with the last plays being my favorite.
Joshua Palmer OVER 3.5 Receptions
As I write this, this prop is not listed on PrizePicks or Underdog. I found it on a separate betting app called HotStreak, and I am only writing it up because I think it is that much of a steal, and the line will be posted on PrizePicks closer to game time. In the second half, Palmer ran only one route less than Mike Williams and had 2 targets. I think he is the next in line with Keenan Allen confirmed out, and I would bet this over up to 4.0. However, I would not bet it at 4.5 receptions.
Austin Ekeler OVER 37.5 Receiving Yards
I would say this is a smash play, except for the small chance the Chargers take the lead early and try to hold it. After watching the Kansas City offense tear apart the Cardinals last week, I see that game script as a small possibility. In their seven losses last season, Ekeler averaged just more than 44 receiving yards per game. I’d play this up to 40 receiving yards but not much higher.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling OVER 3.0 Receptions
We have one week of data for the new Chiefs wide receiver group, and I am surprised at the usage Valdes-Scantling saw. He ran the most routes on the team, ran the same amount of go routes as JuJu Smith-Schuster and less than half as many go routes as Mecole Hardman. My worries of him only being a deep threat for the Chiefs have been eased. As they showed last week, the Chiefs will keep passing, even with a big lead. I think this play has a fantastic chance to go over, and I would bet it up to 3.5 and even over at 4.0 receptions.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 19.5 Rush Yards
In his last three seasons, Mahomes has played the Chargers five times. In every single one of those games, he has gone over 19.5 rush yards, with his low being 24 rush yards during Week 17 in 2019. He is not getting this yardage on designed runs, though. Instead, he is scrambling an average of four times per game, with an average of 42.2 rushing yards per game on these scrambles. The only reason I hesitate with this play is that Tyreek Hill is gone, and the defenses do not need to respect his deep threat ability as much as they have the last few seasons. Still, 19.5 is too low, and I would bet this well over 20, stopping around 25 rush yards.
Correlated Play
- Mahomes OVER 24.0 Fantasy Points
- Kelce OVER 80.5 Receiving Yards
- Mecole Hardman OVER 10.0 Fantasy Points
- Austin Ekeler OVER 37.5 Receiving Yards
This play is assuming a Chiefs offensive performance similar to last week. In 14 games over the last 2 seasons, Mahomes scored over 24 fantasy points, and Kelce averaged 98.3 receiving yards. Those two by themselves are a fantastic correlated play if you want to add them to another play. Mecole Hardman ran the most routes of any wide receivers for the Chiefs within the 5- and 10-yard line. If Mahomes is going to score over 24 fantasy points, he is going to need several touchdowns. If Hardman catches one of those, he should go over 10.0 fantasy points. Finally, if the Chargers are chasing the game, Ekeler should see plenty of opportunity through the passing game.
