Betting
10/12/22
8 min read
The Wednesday Watchman: NFL Week 6 Betting, DFS and Fantasy Information to Know
Every week, we get more clarity on who teams truly are. In the NFC East, the flawless Eagles, Dak-less Cowboys and wide receiver-less Giants are all on a roll with winning percentages of 80% or higher.
Coaching Carousel
With Matt Rhule's firing, the Commanders' Ron Rivera could be the next head coach out of a job. Who would have thought trading for Carson Wentz to be your starting QB would end up a disaster? Oh, the Eagles and Colts could have told you that. Or your analytics people. Or your eyes.
The two longest-tenured coaches in the NFL both have losing records. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin has never finished a season with a losing record, but he'll have to overcome Pittsburgh's 1-4 start to keep his streak alive. Bill Belichick is down to his third-string QB but pulled out a home victory against the lowly, injured Lions. Neither organization would dream of a mid-season replacement, but this is uncharted territory for such storied organizations.
Meanwhile, a few new, young, offensive-minded coaches are thriving. Not you, Nathaniel Hackett; Aaron Rodgers can’t save you now! Refocusing, the Giants' Brian Daboll has his team punching above their weight at 4-1. Kevin O’Connell has the Vikings over the Packers atop the NFC North at 4-1 and Mike McDaniel has his Dolphins in a great position to claim a wildcard playoff spot at 3-2.
As was predicted, Dallas Goedert smashed at tight end. He had the most yards receiving among tight ends in Week 5. However, “tight end” Taysom Hill wound up being the play at tight end for the main slate. He caught no passes yet rushed for more than 100 yards and three TDs. Quite the “tight end” you’ve got there, Saints. At least Chiefs TE Travis Kelce scored his four TDs the old-fashioned way (yet somehow only gained 25 yards).
WATCH MORE: Dave Wannstedt Has Never Seen Anything Like Taysom Hill
The Bills have the league's largest scoring differential at 91 points. The next closest teams are the Eagles and 49ers (tied at +47). That is quite the gap. In an interesting quirk of the early season, the Jaguars are in third place in the AFC South but are the only team in their division with a positive scoring differential (+31). The Titans, Colts and Texans all sport negative differentials (-22, -25, and -13, respectively). If you want to bet on this division, putting some money on the Jaguars to finish first might be a savvy play, especially since they were outplayed by the Texans last week.
This week, let’s stick with the “points scored” theme, and explore three games whose competitors are combining to average at least 47 points per game:
- Kansas City Chiefs-Buffalo Bills (62.2)
- New England Patriots-Cleveland Browns (47.2)
- Baltimore Ravens-New York Giants (48.2)
Detroit and Las Vegas, two of the league's top-10 highest-scoring teams, are on bye this week, and many potent offenses are playing against dud offenses. We want explosion games, though, so we will take our shortlist and dive in.
Betting Information to Know
It's no surprise the Chiefs-Bills matchup made our list. It is this week's premier game, featuring the top two scoring teams in the NFL. Bills QB Josh Allen will be tempted to put together multiple 13-second drives in a massive revenge spot. It is actually a little surprising the total is only 54. The first half could end in a 7-7 tie, and this over is still in play. Last season’s playoff game between these two saw 44 second-half points, with 28 in the fourth quarter!
In a game that could decide the top seed in the AFC, these coaches might get conservative with playcalling. Or, they might go for it all, and give fans what they want. The way each team is playing, I lean toward “eruption.” The best way to play this might be taking the second half over, or live betting the over after the first quarter.
WATCH MORE: Trey Wingo and Golden Tate Preview Chiefs vs. Bills
The Patriots and Browns have been scoring a lot recently. The Patriots scored 29 in a lopsided affair against the Lions last week and it seemed like they could've scored more points if needed. The Browns' offense was humming against the Chargers, also. This game has a sneaky upside, but these teams are run-focused. The clock will be working against an over bet. Yet, 42.5 is a low bar, so I lean over.
The Giants and Ravens are set to play with a current total of 45, with the Ravens favored by five. The Giants’ offense is pretty much just Saquon Barkley. The Ravens have RB J.K. Dobbins back so this might be another run-heavy game script. Given what the Giants did to Rodgers’ Packers, and the comebacks that the Ravens allow, I would not bet on the current spread or total.
DFS Information to Know
How is the Bills-Chiefs game not in prime time? Last week, Allen threw four first-half TDs before taking his foot off of the pedal. Then, the Chiefs outlasted the Raiders. Can they outlast and outmatch the angry Bills?
The whole country will be loading up on this game in DFS. You will either win by using a low-owned combination of players from this game, or you will win by avoiding this game altogether. It may be hard to comprehend that, but it's true. When you follow the crowd, you risk jumping off the bridge.
Having made that clear, Davante Adams just torched Kansas City's defense for 124 yards and two TDs, and RB Josh Jacobs gashed them for 154 yards and a TD. Hello, Bills WR Stefon Diggs ($8400) and RB Devin Singletary ($5900)! Put them together with Allen ($8200) for the rare and exotic QB-RB-WR stack. Bills WR Gabe Davis ($6500) and rookie Khalil Shakir ($3700) are also hitting their strides. Isaiah McKenzie ($5000) might be out of the concussion protocol in time.
Chiefs TE Travis Kelce ($7800) would be an easy bring-back option, though also highly owned. Patrick Mahomes ($8000) faces a top-tier defense, but when has that stopped him? All of his WRs are dice-rolls for production, but they seem comfortable using both RBs Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6300) and Jerick McKinnon ($4700). The way to differentiate your lineup in this game is by rolling the dice on the Chiefs' WRs. JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5200) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4500) have seen consistent target loads.
Patriots QB Mac Jones ($5200) is still on the mend from his ankle injury. If he can’t go, then we would likely see more Bailey Zappe ($5100). Neither interests me this week. Rhamondre Stevenson ($6000) is the RB play this week in New England. Cleveland is 30th in yards per rush (5.32), and Patriots RB Damien Harris (hamstring) is looking doubtful, making Stevenson an easy decision to play.
If I use an optimizer to put together GPP entries this week, Stevenson will be on 50% of my lineups. At TE, Hunter Henry ($3100) is more interesting if Jonnu Smith ($2600) is out with an ankle injury. If this turns into a shootout, WR Jakobi Meyers ($5300) is Zappe’s go-to, and Devante Parker ($4400) is his after-thought.
Another week, another Nick Chubb ($8200) opportunity. The Patriots are 23rd in yards rushing allowed (4.84). Chubb has been unstoppable for the Browns this year. QB Jacoby Brissett has been serviceable so far, but you don’t get fantasy points for handoffs. At least he has upside as a runner. WR Amari Cooper ($5900) continues his “I’m still here” tour, and David Njoku ($4000) continues to produce serviceable stat lines.
Barkley ($7700) looks like a natural in the wildcat formation for the Giants. He is a baller and can be played any week, regardless of the matchup. Daniel Jones ($5200) has made the most of his backup WR core, and he also scored points rushing. Facing the hurting/healing Ravens secondary, he could be a low-owned play. I won’t waste anybody’s time talking about Giants' WRs. TE Daniel Bellinger ($3200) is getting increasingly involved in the offense but is a dart-throw punt option.
Ravens' QB Lamar Jackson ($8100) is always viable. TE Mark Andrews ($7000) is among the most consistent and reliable options for the position. WR Rashod Bateman ($5200) is questionable to play, so Devin Duvernay ($4700) could be worth a look. Dobbins ($5500) has resumed his No. 1 RB role on this offense and can be relied upon for usage.
Players to Add on Waivers
Check out what my colleagues are saying about waiver pick-ups!
Kenneth Walker is a must-add with Rashaad Penny out:
Check in again next time for The Wednesday Watchman: Week 7!
(Data courtesy of SIS and TruMedia Networks)
