Analysis
10/29/22
7 min read
NFL Week 8 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Titans vs. Texans
Tennessee Titans (4-2) at Houston Texans (1-4-1)
Opening Spread: Texans +3.5.
Opening Game Total: 41.
Team Totals: Texans (18.75), Titans (22.25).
Weather: Dome.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Texans +3.5.
- This line has moved down to Texans +2.5.
- DraftKings Pick'Em has the Texans +1.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Texans +2.5.
- This total opened at 41 points.
- This total has moved down to 40.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Texans: IR: Edge Jonathan Greenard. Questionable: WR Brandin Cooks, WR Nico Collins, LG Kenyon Green, RG A.J. Cann, DL Rasheem Green, DL Maliek Collins.
Titans: IR: WR Treylon Burks, LT Taylor Lewan, LG Jamarco Jones, Edge Harold Landry III. Out: FB Tony Carter. Questionable: QB Ryan Tannehill, DL Jefferey Simmons.
The Texans Offense vs. the Titans Defense
Houston has a solid, league-average type of offensive line with an elite left tackle in Laremy Tunsil. The Titans' top-ten caliber front four is the strength of their team. Tennessee's front has an edge in the interior in this trench matchup.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Texans are 3-2-1 against the spread this season.
- The Texans are 3-3 on overs this season.
- Davis Mills is 9-9-1 against the spread in his career.
- Davis Mills is 10-9 on overs in his career.
- Lovie Smith is 85-88-9 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Lovie Smith is 85-94-3 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Texans Offense
- The Texans are scoring 17.7 points per game, which is 28th in the league.
- Houston is 24th in the league in yards passing per game and 24th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Dameon Pierce is sixth in the league in yards rushing despite already having had his bye week.
- Brandin Cooks leads the team in target share (22.7%) and air yards share (28%).
- Nico Collins, who hasn't practiced this week, narrowly leads Cooks in yards receiving with 305 to 281.
- Houston tight ends Brevin Jordan, O.J. Howard, and Jordan Akins have each run between 53 and 56 routes this season.
- Per TruMedia, Brandin Cooks has played 221 snaps on the perimeter and 83 in the slot.
- Nico Collins has played 224 snaps on the perimeter and just 14 in the slot.
- O.J. Howard leads the Texans with 139 snaps as an inline tight end.
Titans Defense
- The Titans have allowed 21.3 points per game, which is 18th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Titans have allowed the 26th most yards rushing per game and the 13th most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Tennessee has given up the third most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- Tennessee has given up the most PPR points per game to perimeter wide receivers and the seventh most to those lined up in the slot.
- The Titans have allowed the tenth most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Titans have allowed the fourth most PPR points per game to inline tight ends this season.
The Titans Offense vs. the Texans Defense
This is a trench matchup between two bottom-tier lines. The Titans offensive line is down multiple opening-day starters. Houston is down starting Edge Jonathan Greenard.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Titans are 4-2 against the spread this season.
- The Titans are 2-4 on overs this season.
- Ryan Tannehill is 69-67-3 against the spread in his career.
- Ryan Tannehill is 74-63-2 on overs in his career.
- Mike Vrabel is 37-33-1 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Mike Vrabel is 40-30-1 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Titans Offense
- The Titans are scoring 19.2 points per game, which is 21st in the league.
- Tennessee is 29th in the league in yards passing per game and 20th in yards rushing.
- Ryan Tannehill's injury status was concerning enough that Malik Willis has been prepared to play if Tannehill can't go.
- Per the Edge, Derrick Henry is fourth in the league in yards rushing despite already having had his bye week.
- Robert Woods leads the Titans in target share (22.5%) and air yards share (27.7%). Woods is the only active Titans wide receiver or tight end with a target share greater than 10%.
- Austin Hooper has a 9.2% target share and a 10% air yards share.
- Per TruMedia, Hooper has played 88 snaps as an inline tight end, 21 on the perimeter, and 56 in the slot.
Texans Defense
- The Texans have allowed 22.8 points per game, which is 20th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Texans have allowed the most yards rushing per game and the tenth most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Houston has given up the 11th most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Texans have allowed the 15th most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
- The Texans have allowed the sixth most PPR points per game to tight ends lined up in the slot.
This is What You're Betting On in Titans vs. Texans
The Texans beat the Titans in Tennessee 22-13 last season. Later in the year, Houston lost at home to the Titans 28-25 in the regular season finale.
I do not bet every game against the spread, but I do pick every game internally (and in a pool or two) so that I can track who I have a good read on and who I don't. Over the last several years, the Titans are a team that I'm consistently below average on. The reason for this is simple: they are a well-coached team that often overachieves. Over the past year and a half, they have continued to do that despite overcoming an abnormal number of significant injuries to difference makers. On top of that, the Titans lost some notable talent this off-season.
If you're betting on the Titans, you are betting on an offense with an injured starting quarterback, an injury-ravaged offensive line, and one of the league's weakest collections of pass catchers. Derrick Henry is a difference-maker on offense, but overall the Titans offense is a below-average group. Toughness and physicality are the defining traits of this team, which is what you're betting on with Tennessee in any matchup. Tennessee was the AFC's top seed last year, and here they are at 4-2 again. A team overachieving through toughness and physicality sounds pretty thin, but that method has gotten consistent results for Mike Vrabel since he took over in Tennessee.
The Texans are a scrappy group that played the Titans very tough in both of their matchups last year. Injuries are mounting for the Titans, but the Texans have a number of their best players on the injury report as well. If you're betting on the Texans this week, be sure to check out their most recent injury report. I'm interested in betting against a banged-up Ryan Tannehill behind a banged-up offensive line with a mediocre group of pass-catchers. But if a number of those Texans listed as questionable start trending toward being out, that will change how I'm currently seeing this game.
Titans vs. Texans Pool Picks
Awards Market Ramifications: Dameon Pierce is an Offensive Rookie of the Year contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I'll have exposure to both of these teams in winner pools. However, the Texans are wildly undervalued on some major platforms in winner pools, with the Titans currently seeing 90% selection rates as a double-digit favorite would. I'm going to treat this as a coin-flip game in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: If I were going to bet this game, I would bet the Texans side, which has been bet down pretty heavily. Right now, I'm leaning towards passing, but after thoroughly diving into this game, I can reasonably get to a Texans victory here.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan's recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 24-11
Props 2022: 23-13
WATCH MORE: The 33rd Team's Head of Betting, Chris Farley, and NFL veteran Tank Williams break down Titans vs. Texans from a betting perspective.
