Betting
10/29/22
8 min read
NFL Week 8 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Packers vs. Bills
Sunday Night Football: Green Bay Packers (3-4) at Buffalo Bills (5-1)
Opening Spread: Bills -10.5
Opening Game Total: 47.5
Opening Team Totals: Bills (29), Packers (18.5)
Weather: Outdoors, no concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Bills -10.5.
- This line remains at Bills -10.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Bills -10.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest Bills -11.
- This total opened at 47.5.
- This total remains at 47.5.
Notable Injuries
Bills: IR: S Micah Hyde; Out: RT Spencer Brown, CB Tre’Davious White
Packers: IR: WR Randall Cobb; Out: WR Allen Lazard; Questionable: WR Christian Watson, LT David Bakhtiari, LG Elgton Jenkins, Edge Rashan Gary
The Bills Offense vs. Packers Defense
Buffalo has an average offensive line at full strength, and it's down their starting right tackle in this matchup. Green Bay has a top-ten caliber front. The Packers have a moderate edge in the trenches this week. However, keep in mind that Josh Allen’s toughness and mobility are an asset in pressure management.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Bills are 4-2 against the spread this season.
- The Bills are 1-5 on overs this season.
- Josh Allen is 39-24-4 against the spread in his career.
- Josh Allen is 28-37-2 on overs in his career.
- Sean McDermott is 49-33-5 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Sean McDermott is 38-47-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Bills Offense
- The Bills are scoring 29.3 points per game, good for second in the league.
- Buffalo is first in the league in yards passing per game and 16th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Devin Singletary is 38th among running backs in rushing yards per game. Singletary is sixth among running backs in yards receiving per game.
- Even though he’s already had his bye, Stefon Diggs leads all wide receivers in PPR points, and he’s third in receptions (49), second in yards receiving (656), and only Travis Kelce has more receiving touchdowns than Diggs’ six.
- Stefon Diggs is the main vein in the league’s most dangerous offense.
- Gabe Davis has had six targets in three of the last four games. Davis went nuclear against the Steelers for 171 yards receiving and two scores on just three receptions.
- Dawson Knox has yet to breach 50 yards receiving in a game this season.
Packers Defense
- The Packers have allowed 20.9 points per game, which is 14th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Packers have allowed the fourth-most yards rushing per game and the 23rd-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Green Bay has given up the fourth-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
- The Packers have allowed the second-fewest yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.
The Packers Offense vs. Bills Defense
The Packers have a fringe top-ten offensive line. Their two best linemen remain on the injury report as of Saturday evening. Buffalo has a top-five pass rush that has had a massive impact against a few bottom-tier offensive lines. The Bills' pass rush has a mild trench advantage in this contest. Keep in mind that Aaron Rodgers' quick release and play-extending abilities are both assets in pressure management.
Betting Notes Per TruMedia
- The Packers are 2-5 against the spread this season.
- The Packers are 3-4 on overs this season.
- Aaron Rodgers is 124-92-4 against the spread in his career.
- Aaron Rodgers is 113-105-2 on overs in his career.
- Matt LaFleur is 34-22 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Matt LaFleur is 26-30 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Packers Offense
- The Packers are scoring 18.3 points per game, which is 23rd in the league.
- Green Bay is 19th in the league in yards passing per game and 18th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Aaron Jones is 22nd among running backs in yards rushing per game. Teammate A.J. Dillon is 37th. Aaron Jones is 12th among running backs in yards receiving per game.
- Green Bay has one of the most limited wide receiver groups in the league. Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb are out, but Sammy Watkins is returning from injury. Christian Watson has spent most of this season dealing with an injury, while Aaron Rodgers may have publicly suggested that Romeo Doubs should play less this week.
- Robert Tonyan is the only Packers wide receiver or tight end that will be active for this game that has notable past success with Rodgers. Tonyan has seen at least four targets in each of the last three games, and he recently had a 12-target spike.
- Per TruMedia, Romeo Doubs has played 287 snaps on the perimeter and 55 in the slot.
Bills Defense
- The Bills have allowed 13.5 points per game, which is best in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Bills have allowed the fewest yards rushing per game and the 21st-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
- Buffalo has given up the 19th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this season.
- Buffalo has given up the fifth-most PPR points per game to perimeter wide receivers this season.
- The Bills have allowed the 17th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this year.
This Is What You’re Betting on in Bills vs. Packers
A bet on the Bills is a bet on a perennial title contender that is scoring the second-most points per game while allowing the fewest. Josh Allen would be the league’s MVP if the season ended today. The Bills' defense has shut opponents down despite being without multiple starters in their secondary, which you could argue is the league’s best from a talent perspective when it’s fully healthy. The best teams in football can win games in multiple ways. The Bills can beat you with a high-level offense or their high-level defense. That’s what makes them a title contender, and that’s why they can conceivably blow the doors off just about anyone. Your biggest concern with a Bills bet is that they are getting an Aaron Rodgers-led team with their backs against the wall. The Bills are coming off their bye.
Green Bay’s recent three-game skid against the Giants, Jets, and Commanders is concerning for a variety of reasons. The offense isn’t functioning while the defense is underachieving. Considering the late hour in Aaron Rodgers career, Green Bay’s front office has put together an embarrassing supporting cast of skill position players for him. But that’s the only real weakness on the team. Rodgers is still capable of being a difference-maker, the offensive line is solid, and the defense has a ton of potential. If Buffalo just does what it does in this contest, Green Bay is actually a tricky matchup for them in a number of areas.
First, the Packers have been a better pass defense than a run defense. Buffalo is an extremely pass-centric offense. Josh Allen is phenomenal and Stefon Diggs is as reliable of a pass-catcher as there is in the league. But after that, Allen’s supporting cast on offense has more role players than difference-makers. Second is that Green Bay's offensive line at least has a chance of mitigating Buffalo’s high-performing front. If they can’t, Green Bay is in trouble. If they can and the Packers' defense plays its best game of the season to date, Green Bay isn’t drawing dead here. Aaron Rodgers has gone out of his way to use the media to try and push his team this week. The Packers have their backs against the wall, they should be highly motivated, and they have a number of talented position groups that matter. They’re also facing the most dangerous team in the league, in primetime, on the road.
Awards Market Ramifications: Josh Allen is the MVP favorite. Stefon Diggs is an Offensive Player of the Year contender. Von Miller is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m going to take Buffalo in winner pools, though the Packers are an aggressive differentiator option that I will take at least once. I’m going to have Buffalo ranked third in my confidence pool rankings this week behind the Eagles and Cowboys.
Spread Pool: I’m either going to take Green Bay with the points or I’m going to pass on this one.
Survivor Pool: Buffalo is a perfectly reasonable option in survivor pools this week as double-digit home favorites. That said, I'm personally going to wait on using the Bills in survivor pools. A desperate Aaron Rodgers-led team with a talented defense has a few paths to an upset.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 24-11
Props 2022: 23-13
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