Betting

10/28/22

7 min read

NFL Week 8 Betting: Odds, Spreads, Picks, Predictions for Broncos vs. Jaguars

Courtland Sutton Broncos vs. Jaguars 2021

London: Denver Broncos (2-5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5)

Opening Spread: Jaguars -3.5

Opening Game Total: 39.5

Opening Team Totals: Jaguars (21.5), Broncos (18)

Weather: Outdoors, chance for rain

The Line Report

  • This line opened as Jaguars -3.5.
  • This line has moved to Jaguars -2.5.
  • DraftKings Pick’Em has the Jaguars -3.5.
  • Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Jaguars -2.5.
  • This total opened at 39.5.
  • This total remains at 39.5.

Notable Injuries

Jaguars: IR: CB Shaquill Griffin

Broncos: IR: LT Garett Bolles, Edge Randy Gregory, CB Ronald Darby; Out: RT Cameron Fleming, Edge Baron Browning

The Jaguars Offense vs. Broncos Defense

The Jaguars have a fringe top-ten offensive line. At full strength the Broncos' front four is a fringe top-ten unit, but in its current state it is more towards the back end of average. The Jaguars have a slight edge in the trenches here.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Jaguars are 2-5 against the spread this season.
  • The Jaguars are 4-3 on overs this season.
  • Trevor Lawrence is 7-17 against the spread in his career.
  • Trevor Lawrence is 9-15 on overs in his career.
  • Doug Pederson is 40-47 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
  • Doug Pederson is 43-44 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.

Jaguars Offense

  • The Jaguars are scoring 22.1 points per game, which is 16th in the league.
  • Jacksonville is 16th in the league in yards passing per game and ninth in yards rushing.
  • Travis Etienne was already trending up in the Jaguars' backfield, but trading James Robinson to the Jets further solidifies Etienne’s role in this offense. I consider Etienne to be the most and only dynamic skill position player on the Jaguars.
  • Per the Edge, the Jaguars are spreading the ball around this season. Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Marvin Jones, and Evan Engram all have target shares between 16% and 23%.
  • The Jaguars' wide receiver trio of Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Marvin Jones each have target shares between 22% and 30%. Engram has a 15.9% air yards share.

Broncos Defense

  • The Broncos have allowed 16.4 points per game, which is third in the league.
  • Per The Edge, the Broncos have allowed the 16th-most yards rushing per game and the tenth-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
  • Denver has given up the second-fewest yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
  • The Broncos have allowed the 19th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.

The Broncos Offense vs. Jaguars Defense

The Jaguars' front four is a top-ten caliber unit. They’ll be facing a Broncos' offensive line that will be down both of its opening day offensive tackles. Russell Wilson’s evasion abilities help the Broncos' below average offensive line in pressure management, but ultimately the Jaguars have a significant advantage in the trenches this week.

Betting Notes Per TruMedia

  • The Broncos are 2-5 against the spread this season.
  • The Broncos are 1-6 on overs this season.
  • Russell Wilson is 85-73-6 against the spread in his career.
  • Russell Wilson is 76-87-1 on overs in his career.
  • Nathaniel Hackett is 2-5 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
  • Nathaniel Hackett is 1-6 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.

Broncos Offense

  • The Broncos are scoring 14.3 points per game, which is last in the league.
  • Denver is 20th in the league in yards passing per game and 19th in yards rushing.
  • After missing last week’s contest against the Jets, Russell Wilson is off the injury report this week.
  • With Mike Boone on injured reserve, we can reasonably expect Melvin Gordon to have the lead in a roughly even backfield split with Latavius Murray.
  • Per the Edge, Courtland Sutton leads the Broncos with his 24.8% target share and his 36.7% air yards share.
  • Jerry Jeudy is second with his 20.1% target share and 25.8% air yards share. With the Broncos' season spiraling, Jeudy has been part of trade rumors this week.
  • Rookie tight end Greg Dulcich made his NFL debut two weeks ago. Over that two-game span Dulcich has eight receptions on 12 targets for 95 yards receiving and a touchdown.

Jaguars Defense

  • The Jaguars have allowed 19.6 points per game, which is tenth in the league.
  • Per The Edge, the Jaguars have allowed the 21st-most yards rushing per game and the third-most yards receiving per game to running backs this season.
  • Jacksonville has given up the 18th-most yards receiving per game to wide receivers this year.
  • The Jaguars have allowed the 24th-most yards receiving per game to tight ends this season.

This Is What You’re Betting on in Jaguars vs. Broncos

If you are betting on the Jaguars, you are building that bet on the advantage that Jacksonville’s pass rush has in this matchup. The Broncos are currently scoring the fewest points per game in the league. We can reasonably expect that Russell Wilson’s offense will have better days at some point this season, but they could be in trouble here against Jacksonville’s fast front. Trevor Lawrence has been much better this season and his college teammate, Travis Etienne, is emerging as the most dynamic player in this offense. The rest of the Jaguars' offense lacks significant firepower, and they’ll be squaring off with a Broncos' secondary that has smothered enemy wide receivers this season. Even if the Jaguars' defense meets expectations in this contest, you’re still going to need enough out of the Jaguars' offense against a difficult opponent.

A Broncos bet is built off one of two core ideas. The first is that Denver’s defense continues to perform at a high level despite being down a few difference makers in their pass rush. Denver gets safety Justin Simmons back this week, but emerging edge Baron Browning will miss this contest. Even though the Broncos are getting a major piece back in their secondary, their pass rush could struggle against Jacksonville’s solid offensive line. The other way that the Broncos can exceed expectations here is if Russell Wilson’s offense starts to look like a Russell Wilson offense this week. That’s possible, and I’d even go as far as to say that a spike week is expected at some point, but I would not build a bet around that expectation. Especially considering that Denver is down both of its starting offensive tackles against a quality Jaguars' pass rush.

Ultimately, this is a pick your defense game played on a neutral field in London.

Awards Market Ramifications: Jaguars linebacker Devin Lloyd and edge Travon Walker are both Offensive Rookie of the Year contenders.

Winner/Confidence Pool: I will have some exposure to both of these teams in winner pools this week. Whichever side I take in confidence pools, I expect to have them ranked below consensus.

Spread Pool: I am considering the Jaguars in one of my secondary ATS tournament entries.

Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.

Ryan’s recent betting record:

ATS 2021: 49-31

ATS 2022: 24-11

Props 2022: 23-13

WATCH MORE: Jerry Jeudy, Chase Claypool Top WR Trade Targets at Deadline


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