Betting
10/14/22
7 min read
Matchups Week 6: Vikings vs. Dolphins
Minnesota Vikings (4-1) at Miami Dolphins (3-2)
Opening Spread: Dolphins +3.
Opening Game Total: 45.5.
Team Totals: Dolphins (21.25), Vikings (24.25).
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Dolphins +3.
- This line has moved to Dolphins +3.5 as of Friday morning.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Dolphins +2.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Dolphins +3.5.
- This total opened at 45.5.
- This total remains at 45.5 as of Friday morning.
Notable Injuries
Dolphins: Out: QB Tua Tagovailoa, CB Bryon Jones. Questionable: QB Teddy Bridgewater, RB Raheem Mostert, TE Durham Smythe, LT Terron Armstead, CB Xavien Howard.
Vikings: IR: S Lewis Cine. Questionable: RB Alexander Mattison.
The Dolphins Offense vs. the Vikings Defense
I’m treating this trench matchup as a relative draw. I have the Vikings front four ranked toward the front of the middle of the pack. Conversely, I rank the Dolphins offensive line right in the middle of the pack.
Betting Notes
- The Dolphins are 3-2 against the spread this season.
- The Dolphins are 2-3 on overs this season.
- Skylar Thompson is making his first NFL start.
- Mike McDaniel is 3-2 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Mike McDaniel is 2-3 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Dolphins Offense
- The Dolphins are scoring 23 points per game, good for 12th in the league.
- Miami is fifth in the league in yards passing per game and 30th in yards rushing.
- No. 247 overall pick Skylar Thompson is making his first NFL start. In relief duty against the Jets last week, Thompson completed 19-of-33 passes for 166 yards passing and one interception.
- Per the Edge, Raheem Mostert is 23rd among running backs in yards rushing and 39th in yards receiving. Chase Edmonds is 37th in yards receiving among running backs.
- We can reasonably expect unpredictable backfield deployments from Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel, as that was often the norm when he was in San Francisco. That said, Mostert took over the Dolphins backfield last week against the Jets.
- Tyreek Hill is seventh in the league in target share (29.8%), and his 37.4% air yards share is 15th in the league.
- Jaylen Waddle has a 22.6% target share and a 28.5% air yards share.
- Tight ends Durham Smythe (4.2%) and Mike Gesicki (7.1%) both have sub-10 % target shares.
Vikings Defense
- The Vikings have allowed 20.4 points per game, which is 15th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Vikings have allowed the 18th-most yards rushing and the ninth-most yards receiving to running backs this season.
- Minnesota has given up the 12th-most yards receiving on the 19th-most receptions to wide receivers this year.
- The Vikings have allowed the 10th-most yards receiving on the 11th-most receptions to tight ends this season.
The Vikings Offense vs. the Dolphins Defense
I’m also treating this matchup as a relative draw in the trenches. Minnesota’s offensive line has been a rock-solid middle-of-the-pack type unit this season. They face a Miami front four that is on that border of average and below average.
Betting Notes
- The Vikings are 1-4 against the spread this season.
- The Vikings are 3-2 on overs this season.
- Kirk Cousins is 62-62-1 against the spread in his career.
- Kirk Cousins is 72-52-1 on overs in his career.
- Kevin O’Connell is 1-4 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Kevin O’Connell is 3-2 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Vikings Offense
- The Vikings are scoring 23 points per game, good for 12th in the league.
- Minnesota is 8th in the league in yards passing per game and 21st in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, among running backs, Dalvin Cook is ninth in yards rushing and 31st in yards receiving.
- Justin Jefferson leads the league in yards receiving (547), he’s second in receptions (40), he’s ninth in target share (29.5%), and he’s 10th in air yards share (39.2%).
- Adam Thielen has a 19.1% target share and a 30.2% air yards share, both second-best on the Vikings.
- K.J. Osborn has an 11.5% target share and a 16% air yards share.
- Irv Smith has a 13.1% target share and a 12.2% air yards share.
- Per TruMedia, Justin Jefferson has played 222 snaps on the perimeter and 89 in the slot.
- Adam Thielen has played 222 snaps on the perimeter and 91 in the slot.
- K.J. Osborn has played 91 snaps on the perimeter and 162 in the slot.
- Irv Smith has played 110 snaps as an inline tight end, 33 on the perimeter and 30 in the slot.
Dolphins Defense
- The Dolphins have allowed 26.2 points per game, which is 29th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Dolphins have allowed the 30th-most yards rushing and the second-most yards receiving to running backs this season.
- Miami has given up the 10th-most yards receiving on the 24th-most receptions to wide receivers this year.
- Miami has given up the 10th-most PPR points to perimeter receivers this year.
- The Dolphins have allowed the seventh-most yards receiving on the fifth-most receptions to tight ends this season.
- The Dolphins have allowed the fourth-most PPR points to tight ends lined up in the slot this season.
This is What You’re Betting On in Dolphins vs. Vikings
A bet on the Dolphins is a bet on Mike McDaniel’s ability to get a winning effort out of seventh-round pick Skylar Thompson at quarterback. McDaniel would be on my short list of coaches to call upon for this type of job, and Miami is a very talented offense, but this is a tall order. If you’re betting on the Dolphins in this spot, you need a defensive effort that mimics what they did at home against Buffalo in Week 3. As you can see, we are asking a seventh-round rookie quarterback to play a consistent game and Miami’s defense to exceed expectations against a 4-1 Vikings if we’re betting on the Dolphins here.
A bet on Minnesota is a bet on a 4-1 Vikings team that has yet to play a ceiling game. If you’ve bet on the Vikings this year, you already know that it is not for the faint of heart, as this talented team consistently has maddening moments in virtually every game. From a pure talent perspective, Minnesota is a well-rounded team capable of breaching 30 points against most opponents. Beating the Vikings is a very tall order for a seventh-round rookie making his first NFL start. Your biggest concern as a Vikings bettor is that Minnesota is inconsistent enough to keep Miami in this game too long, apart from Miami's elite offense speed.
Vikings vs. Dolphins Pool Picks
Awards Market Ramifications: Kevin O’Connell and Mike McDaniel are Coach of the Year contenders. Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill are Offensive Player of the Year Contenders.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’ll take the Vikings against a seventh-round rookie quarterback in winner pools. In confidence pools, I expect to have Minnesota ranked on top of this week’s cluster of small favorites.
Spread Pool: I will take Minnesota -2.5 at a value in at least one of my ATS tournament entries.
Survivor Pool: Minnesota would be a very aggressive survivor pool play on a difficult slate.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 17-8
Props 2022: 16-10
WATCH MORE: Super Bowl-winning Head Coach Bill Cowher explains why coaching matters most in October.
