Betting
10/14/22
8 min read
Matchups Week 6: Jets vs. Packers
New York Jets (3-2) at Green Bay Packers (3-2)
Opening Spread: Packers -7.
Opening Game Total: 45
Team Totals: Packers (26), Jets (19)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened between Packers -7 and Packers -7.5.
- This line has settled at Packers -7.5 as of Thursday evening.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Packers -7.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Packers -7.
- This total opened at 45 points.
- This total has moved up to 46.5 points as of Thursday evening.
Notable Injuries
Packers: Questionable: WR Christian Watson, LT David Bakhtiari, RT Elgton Jenkins, Edge Rashan Gary, DT Devonte Wyatt.
Jets: IR: OT Mekhi Becton, OT George Fant. Questionable: LT Duane Brown, Edge Jermaine Johnson, LB Quincy Williams.
The Packers Offense vs. the Jets Defense
Green Bay has a top-10 caliber offensive line when they are at full strength. The Jets front four has the talent to approach the top 10, but they have been more of a middle-of-the-pack unit through the first four games. Green Bay’s offensive line has a mild trench advantage at the most.
Betting Notes
- The Packers are 2-3 against the spread this season.
- The Packers are 2-3 on overs this season.
- Aaron Rodgers is 121-86-4 against the spread in his career.
- Aaron Rodgers is 109-101-1 on overs in his career.
- Matt LaFleur is 34-20 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Matt LaFleur is 25-29 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Packers Offense
- The Packers are scoring 19.4 points per game, which is 22nd in the league.
- Green Bay is 20th in the league in yards passing per game and 11th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, among running backs, Aaron Jones is seventh in yards rushing while teammate A.J. Dillon is 27th. Jones is 21st at the position in yards receiving.
- Allen Lazard leads the team in target share (19.4%) and air yards share (34.9%).
- Romeo Doubs has a 17.7% target share and a 19.5% air yards share.
- Randall Cobb has a 15.2% target share and a 24.8% air yards share.
- Robert Tonyan has a 12.2% target share with a 7.2% air yards share.
Jets Defense
- The Jets have allowed 23.6 points per game, which is 18th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Jets have allowed the 14th-most yards rushing and the 26th-most yards receiving to running backs this season.
- New York has allowed the 28th-most yards receiving on the 28th-most receptions to wide receivers this season.
- The Jets have given up the 13th-most yards receiving on the 17th-most receptions to tight ends this year.
The Jets Offense vs. the Packers Defense
The Jets have done a great job managing their abnormal number of injuries at offensive tackle. Veteran Duane Brown could be back this week to man left tackle, while Alijah Vera-Tucker has been kicked out from guard to right tackle. The Jets offensive line is a below-average unit in their current state, but they are trending up. Green Bay has a top-10 front with a macro advantage in this contest.
Betting Notes
- The Jets are 3-2 against the spread this season.
- The Jets are 3-2 on overs this season.
- Zach Wilson is 7-8 against the spread in his career.
- Zach Wilson is 9-6 on overs in his career.
- Robert Saleh is 9-13 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
- Robert Saleh is 13-9 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.
Jets Offense
- The Jets are scoring 23.2 points per game, good for 11th in the league.
- New York is seventh in the league in yards passing per game and 24th in yards rushing.
- The Jets are 2-0 since Zach Wilson returned to action, and this offense looks much different with Wilson than it did with Joe Flacco.
- Per the Edge, among running backs, Breece Hall is 22nd in yards rushing and second in yards receiving. Teammate Michael Carter is 40th among running backs in yards rushing and 19th in yards receiving.
- Rookie wide receiver Garrett Wilson has a 21.7% target share and a 24% air yards share.
- Elijah Moore has a 14.3% target share and a 25.6% air yards share.
- Corey Davis has a 13.3% target share and a 25.7% air yards share.\
- Tyler Conklin has a 14.8% target share, but his role in the offense was much greater, with Joe Flacco under center.
Packers Defense
- The Packers have allowed 19.2 points per game, which is 11th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Packers have allowed the ninth-most yards rushing on the 24th-most yards receiving to running backs this year.
- Green Bay has given up the 25th-most yards receiving on the 23rd-most receptions to wide receivers.
- The Packers have allowed the second-fewest yards receiving on the third-fewest receptions to tight ends this season.
This is What You’re Betting On in Jets vs. Packers
A bet on the Packers is a bet on a top-10 caliber defense with a future Hall-of-Fame quarterback and an excellent running back duo. The defense has been solid, even though it’s not yet playing at its peak. The offense has been underwhelming through the first five games. If you’re betting on Green Bay here, you’re betting on Aaron Rodgers’ offense taking a step forward.
Otherwise, you’ll need a thoroughly dominant performance out of the Packers defense for Green Bay to cover this line. You’re getting Green Bay off a loss in this spot, but they are also coming off an upset in London. Traveling from Europe is a different adjustment than hopping a few time zones in the continental United States. Your biggest concern on a Packers bet is that their offense continues to struggle, and the Jets have several young, talented players on both sides of the ball that have the potential to keep this game tight.
A bet on the Jets is a bet on a young, talented roster that is off to a 3-2 start despite a difficult early schedule. I’ve been bullish on the Jets since late March, and I wasn’t expecting a 3-2 record at this point. Of all the current starting quarterbacks that will likely be their team’s opening day starter next year, Zach Wilson is the guy I have the most incomplete read on. There are things I like, and there are things that concern me. If you’re betting on the Jets, you’re betting on a consistent game out of Wilson against a high-quality defense. That defense, paired with Aaron Rodgers coming off a loss, are your two biggest concerns as a Jets bettor.
Jets vs. Packers Pool Picks
Awards Market Ramifications: Breece Hall is an Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite, while teammate Garrett Wilson is still a contender in that race. Robert Saleh has a path in the Coach of the Year race.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: The Jets are an exciting differentiator option in winner pools because they have some considerable young talent on their roster. That said, Green Bay is coming off a loss where their offense was shut out in the second half against the Giants. I’ll take the Hall of Fame quarterback in a correction spot in winner pools. I expect to be roughly even with consensus on the Packers in confidence rankings.
Spread Pool: I will avoid this game in tournaments, and I will not bet it directly. I may, however, get some exposure to this game in DFS this week. The over was seemingly hit early in the week and again mid-week, where it jumped up a point-and-a-half overall. I understand why that happened, so I’ll likely have a Packers-Jets mini-correlation in one of my single-entry DraftKings lineups.
Survivor Pool: This is a difficult week for survivor pools. If you still have Green Bay, this is an excellent spot to use them. I have already used them in the majority of my entries this season. I’ll discuss my updated stances on survivor pools in our live update on Sunday morning, starting at 10:00 AM Eastern.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 17-8
Props 2022: 16-10
WATCH MORE: Joe Douglas is Turning the Jets into Winners With his Drafting
