Analysis
10/13/22
7 min read
Matchups Week 6: Jaguars at Colts
Jacksonville Jaguars (2-3) at Indianapolis Colts (2-2-1)
Opening Spread: Colts -1.
Opening Game Total: 42
Opening Team Totals: Colts (21.5), Jaguars (20.5)
Weather: Dome.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Colts -1.
- This line has moved to as high as Colts -2.5 but has settled between Colts -1.5 and Colts -2 as of Wednesday evening.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Colts -2.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest releases their lines Thursday afternoon.
- This total opened at 42 points.
- This total has moved down to 41.5 points.
Notable Injuries
Colts: Questionable: RB Jonathan Taylor, RB Nyheim Hines, C Ryan Kelly, Edge Kwity Paye, LB Shaquille Leonard, S Julian Blackmon.
Jaguars: Questionable: WR Zay Jones, DL Folorunso Fatukasi, DL DaVon Hamilton, LB Foyesade Oluokun.
The Colts Offense vs. Jaguars Defense
The Colts offensive line is one of the most disappointing units in the league so far. However, they are getting rookie left tackle Bernhard Raimann back this week. It might take time for Raimann to be a net positive for this offense. That said, I liked him as a prospect, and Indianapolis could conceivably get better at both left tackle and right tackle with his return.
The Jaguars' front four is on the opposite end of the spectrum. They’ve been better than most expected. The Jaguars' pass rush has an edge in this contest.
Betting Notes
- Indianapolis is 2-3 against the spread this season.
- The Colts are 0-5 on overs this season.
- Matt Ryan is 110-113-4 against the spread in his career.
- Ryan is 101-123-3 on overs in his career.
- Colts coach Frank Reich is 35-32-3 against the spread in his head coaching career.
- Reich is 34-36 on overs in his head coaching career.
Colts Offense
- The Colts score 13.8 points per game, which is last in the league.
- Indianapolis is eighth in the league in yards passing per game and 26th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Ryan is sixth in the league in yards passing, 21st in yards per attempt and 36th in air yards per attempt.
- Ryan is tied for the league lead in interceptions (seven) and sacks taken (21) while leading outright with an astonishing 11 fumbles.
- RB Jonathan Taylor is seventh in the league in yards rushing per game.
- With Taylor out last week, Nyheim Hines was looking at major role expansion until a concussion forced him out the game.
- Taylor and Hines are on the injury report to start the week. Deon Jackson and Phillip Lindsay split opportunities in Denver last week.
- WR Michael Pittman leads the Colts in target share (22.9%), receptions (25) and yards receiving (283).
- WR Alec Pierce has emerged as the second option in the Colts passing attack. Pierce is second on the team in yards receiving (222), he’s second in target share (14%) and he leads the team in air yards share (26.1%).
- After a spike game in Week 4, TE Mo Alie-Cox only had one target last Thursday.
Jaguars Defense
- The Jaguars have allowed 16 points per game, which is the fourth-best in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Jaguars have allowed the 23rd most yards rushing and the sixth most yards receiving to running backs.
- Jacksonville has given up the 26th most yards receiving on the 30th most receptions to wide receivers
- The Jaguars have given up the 16th most yards receiving on the 28th most receptions to tight ends.
The Jaguars Offense vs. Colts Defense
The Jaguars have a fringe top-10 offensive line, while the Colts' front is a solid middle-of-the-pack unit. So, consider this a relative draw in the trenches.
Betting Notes
- The Jaguars are 2-3 against the spread this season.
- Jacksonville 3-2 on overs this season.
- Trevor Lawrence is 7-15 against the spread in his career.
- Lawrence is 8-14 on overs in his career.
- Jaguars coach Doug Pederson is 40-45 against the spread in his head coaching career.
- Pederson is 42-43 on overs in his head coaching career.
Jaguars Offense
- The Jaguars score 22.2 points per game, good for 15th in the league.
- Jacksonville is 19th in yards passing per game and 16th in yards rushing.
- Per the Edge, Lawrence is 16th in yards passing, 28th in yards per attempt and 21st in air yards per attempt.
- RB James Robinson is 20th among RBs in yards rushing, while Travis Etienne is 31st in yards rushing and 13th in yards receiving.
- WR Christian Kirk leads the Jaguars in yards receiving (338), touchdown receptions (three) and target share (22.7%). Kirk is second on the team in air yards share (28.3%) and receptions (21).
- WR Marvin Jones leads the Jaguars in air yards share (30.2%), and he’s third in target share (17.4%).
- WR Zay Jones is second on the Jaguars in target share (21.3%) and third in air yards share (17%).
- TE Evan Engram has caught 19 of 26 targets for 168 scoreless yards receiving. He has a 15.1% target share and a 16% air yards share.
- Per TruMedia, Engram has played 103 snaps as an inline tight end, 41 on the perimeter and 88 in the slot.
Colts Defense
- Indianapolis ahs allowed 18.8 points per game, which is 10th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Colts have allowed the 26th most yards rushing and the fourth most yards receiving to running backs this season.
- Indianapolis has allowed the fewest yards receiving on the second fewest receptions to wide receivers this year.
- The Colts have given up the 11th most yards receiving on the eighth most receptions this year.
- The Colts have given up the seventh most PPR points to inline tight ends and the eighth most to tight ends lined up in the slot.
This is What You’re Betting On in Colts vs. Jaguars
A bet on the Colts is a bet on a struggling, turnover-prone offense. If center Ryan Kelly plays, the Colts will be full strength on the offensive line. Indianapolis has underwhelmed in both trenches this season. If I’m betting on the Colts, I’m betting on both their lines playing up to their capabilities off a long week.
If you’re betting on Indianapolis, keep an eye on its running backs and Leonard’s injury status. Your biggest concern on a Colts bet is rather obvious: they are still inconsistent, and the Jaguars shut them out in Week 2.
A bet on the Jaguars is a bet on an intriguing, young team that has evened out some after their hot start. The Jaguars have a real future at quarterback, their new coaching staff brings stability and their fast defense has been outstanding. They are also still a young, inconsistent team, as evidenced by their loss to the Texans as full 7-point home favorites last week.
Jacksonville shut out the Colts in an adverse weather game back in Week 2. If you’re betting on Jacksonville, you don’t need them to shutout the Colts again, but you are banking on their defense playing another high-end football game. A bet on Jacksonville can also be a direct bet against Ryan, who has struggled behind the Colts' inconsistent offensive line.
Awards Market Ramifications: Jaguars linebacker Devin Lloyd and Edge Trayvon Walker are both Defensive Rookie of the Year contenders.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: This is a relative coin flip game. I’m currently leaning towards the Indianapolis side. I’ll rank whoever I take in this game toward the bottom of my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: This line struck me as odd early this week, and Indianapolis saw early action, which further backed my original instinct. I will consider taking the Colts in one of my ATS tournament entries this week, but I will keep a sharp eye on their injury report as we get closer to kickoff.
Survivor Pool: Avoid this contest in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 17-8
Props 2022: 16-10
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