Betting

10/14/22

8 min read

Matchups Week 6: Cardinals vs. Seahawks

By Ryan Reynolds

Cardinals vs. Seahawks
Oct 9, 2022; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith (7) rolls out the pocket against the New Orleans Saints during the first half at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

Arizona Cardinals (2-3) at Seattle Seahawks (2-3)

Opening Spread: Seahawks +3.

Opening Game Total: 51.5.

Team Totals: Seahawks (24.25), Cardinals (27.25).

Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.

The Line Report

  • This line opened as Seahawks +3.
  • This line has moved down to Seahawks +2.5 as of Friday morning.
  • DraftKings Pick'Em has the Seahawks +2.5.
  • Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Seahawks +2.5.
  • This total opened at 51.5 points.
  • This total has moved down to 50.5 as of Friday morning.

Notable Injuries

Seahawks: IR RB Rashaad Penny, S Jamal Adams. Questionable: WR Tyler Lockett, RG Gabe Jackson, DL Shelby Harris, DT Al Woods, Edge Darrell Taylor.

Cardinals: Doubtful: RB Darrel Williams. Questionable: RB James Conner, LT D.J. Humphries, LG Justin Pugh, C Rodney Hudson, NT Rashard Lawrence, Edge Dennis Gardeck, CB Trayvon Mullen.

The Seahawks Offense vs. the Cardinals Defense

The Seahawks offensive line has been better than expected, as I now have them toward the back of the middle of the pack. Arizona has a bottom-tier pass rush. The Seahawks have a moderate trench advantage in this contest.

Betting Notes

  • The Seahawks are 2-3 against the spread this season.
  • The Seahawks are 3-2 on overs this season.
  • Geno Smith is 21-16-2 against the spread in his career.
  • Geno Smith is 19-19-1 on overs in his career.
  • Pete Carroll is 104-87-7 against the spread since 2000 as an NFL head coach.
  • Pete Carroll is 99-96-3 on overs since 2000 as an NFL head coach.

Seahawks Offense

  • The Seahawks are scoring 25.4 points per game, good for seventh in the league.
  • Seattle is 13th in the league in yards passing per game and 12th in yards rushing.
  • Per the Edge, Geno Smith is third in yards per attempt, 14th in air yards per attempt, and has a ridiculous, league-leading 75.2% completion percentage.
  • No. 41 overall pick Kenneth Walker will take over for the injured Rashaad Penny. We can reasonably expect Walker to take on the bulk of the carries, while DeeJay Dallas is likely to factor in on passing downs.
  • DK Metcalf leads the Seahawks with a 28.1% target share, and he's second with a 36.6% air yards share.
  • Tyler Lockett is second on the Seahawks with a 26.1% target share and the leader with a 37.4% air yards share.
  • Tight end Noah Fant has played 158 snaps, ran 79 routes, and has a 10.5% target share. Will Dissly has played 200 snaps, ran 70 routes, and has a 9.8% target share.
  • Per TruMedia, Will Dissly has played 130 snaps as an inline tight end, eight on the perimeter and 22 in the slot.
  • Noah Fant has played 90 snaps as an inline tight end, 18 on the perimeter and 35 in the slot.

Cardinals Defense

  • The Cardinals have allowed 24.6 points per game, which is 22nd in the league.
  • Per The Edge, the Cardinals have allowed the 27th-most yards rushing and the 13th-most yards receiving to running backs this season.
  • Arizona has given up the 27th-most yards receiving on the 10th-most receptions to wide receivers this year.
  • The Cardinals have allowed the most yards receiving on the most receptions to tight ends this season.
  • The Cardinals have allowed the fifth-most PPR points to inline tight ends and the most to tight ends lined up in the slot.

The Cardinals Offense vs. the Seahawks Defense

There is no trench advantage in this matchup. The Cardinals offensive line is towards the front of the below-average tier. The Seahawks have a bottom-tier pass rush.

Betting Notes

  • The Cardinals are 3-2 against the spread this season.
  • The Cardinals are 1-3-1 on overs this season.
  • Kyler Murray is 27-22-2 against the spread in his career.
  • Kyler Murray is 21-28-2 on overs in his career.
  • Kliff Kingsbury is 29-23-2 against the spread in his career as an NFL head coach.
  • Kliff Kingsbury is 27-23-4 on overs in his career as an NFL head coach.

Cardinals Offense

  • The Cardinals are scoring 21 points per game, good for 18th in the league.
  • Arizona is 17th in the league in yards passing per game and 17th in yards rushing.
  • Per the Edge, Kyler Murray is seventh among quarterbacks in yards rushing with 133.
  • If James Conner misses this contest, Eno Benjamin is in line for considerable role expansion in a great matchup with Darrel Williams doubtful.
  • Marquise "Hollywood" Brown is third in the league in air yards share (43.9%), and he's 18th in target share (26.7%).
  • Since returning to action two weeks ago, Rondale Moore has had five and then eight targets.
  • Among tight ends, Zach Ertz is fifth in target share (19.9%) and fourth in air yards share (19.7%).
  • Per TruMedia, Ertz has played 92 snaps as an inline tight end, 28 on the perimeter, and 169 in the slot.

Seahawks Defense

  • The Seahawks have allowed 30.8 points per game, which is 31st in the league.
  • Per The Edge, they have allowed the second-most yards rushing and the third-most yards receiving to running backs this season.
  • Seattle has surrendered the third-fewest yards receiving on the fewest receptions to wide receivers this year.
  • The Seahawks have given up the second-most yards receiving on the 14th-most receptions to tight ends this season.
  • This season, the Seahawks have given up the most PPR points to inline tight ends.

This is What You're Betting On in Cardinals vs. Seahawks

A bet on the Seahawks is a bet on Geno Smith continuing to play at a ridiculously high level. Smith's spike game against the Lions in Week 4 was impressive, but it came against the league's worst defense. However, Smith's performance in New Orleans last week was not ignorable as he made a number of high-difficulty throws against a good Saints defense, and he made them look easy.

I still doubt that Smith has suddenly become the type of quarterback that leads the league in completion percentage, but he's been very good for three games in a row now. Seattle has a strong group of skill position players headlined by wide receivers DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. The Seahawks offensive line has been better than expected, and rookie running back Kenneth Walker has already looked like an asset. Even if Smith comes back to earth, he has an excellent supporting cast on offense. Aside from negative regression for their offense, your biggest concern with a Seahawks bet is that Kyler Murray has scored over 30 points in two of his last three matchups with the Seahawks.

 

 

A bet on the Cardinals is primarily a bet on Kyler Murray elevating his offense. Murray is very capable of massive ceiling games, but consistency has been the biggest issue in his professional career. This is only the second time this season that Arizona faces an opponent whose roster isn't better than theirs. Both of these teams need a win with 2-3 records, but Arizona came into the year with greater expectations than Seattle, which means the pressure is on them in this contest. Your biggest concern with a Cardinals bet is that Geno Smith continues to play like Drew Brees. Your next biggest is that Arizona has three starting offensive linemen on the injury report.

Marquise Brown, Zach Ertz, and Eno Benjamin's overs are all pretty high this week. There's a good chance I play that group with some Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf bring backs in DFS this week. I had the total at 51 points before I looked at any lines this week, so I think the total is right where it should be.

Cardinals vs. Seahawks Pool Picks

Awards Market Ramifications: Geno Smith has emerged as a Comeback Player of the Year contender.

Winner/ Confidence Pool: I intend to take Arizona in winner pools, though that is dependent on the state of their offensive line. I expect that I will be higher than the consensus on Arizona in confidence pools. Though, again, if Arizona ends up down two or three offensive linemen, I'll pump the breaks on that stance.

Spread Pool: I'll take the Cardinals in at least one of my ATS tournament entries this week.

Survivor Pool: Arizona would be an aggressive survivor pool option in a difficult week.

Ryan's recent betting record:

ATS 2021: 49-31

ATS 2022: 17-8

Props 2022: 16-10

WATCH MORE: How Will DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett Perform Against the Cardinals Defense?

 

 

Tags: Arizona Cardinals, Betting, Seattle Seahawks See More

Ryan Reynolds

Ryan graduated with distinction from the University of Minnesota as an accounting major, but some of the most valuable business and investment lessons he has ever learned came from spending weekends learning the sports collectibles business from his father. At a young age, Ryan would voluntarily spend hours sifting through minor league baseball statistics, using his father’s analytics-based system to identify potential targets. Even then, the hitter’s swing or the pitcher’s “stuff” mattered more to Ryan than the perspective granted through just data.

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