Betting
10/7/22
6 min read
Matchups Week 5: Titans at Commanders
Tennessee Titans (2-2) at Washington Commanders (1-3)
Opening Spread: Commanders +2.5
Opening Game Total: 42.5
Opening Team Totals: Commanders (20), Titans (22.5)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened as Commanders +2.5.
- This line remains at Commanders +2.5 as of Friday morning.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Commanders +2.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Commanders +1.5.
- This total opened at 42.5 points.
- This total remains at 42.5 points as of Friday morning.
Notable Injuries
Commanders: IR: C Chase Roullier; Out: Edge Chase Young; Questionable: WR Jahan Dotson, WR Chris Samuel, LT Charles Leno Jr., RT Sam Cosmi, LB David Mayo.
Titans: IR: LT Taylor Lewan, Edge Harold Landry; Doubtful: WR Treylon Burks; Questionable: FB Tory Carter, C Ben Jones, RG Nate Davis, Edge Bud Dupree, LB Zach Cunningham, CB Caleb Farley, S Amani Hooker.
The Commanders Offense vs. Titans Defense
Washington has a solid, middle-of-the-pack offensive line. With the loss of edges Harold Landry and Bud Dupree still banged up after returning to action last week, the Titans' front as a whole is in the average to below-average range. That said, the Titans' interior is strong and Jefferey Simmons is a matchup issue for just about everyone. There’s no trench edge from a macro sense, but the Titans' interior has a moderate one.
Betting Notes
- The Commanders are 1-3 against the spread this season.
- The Commanders are 2-2 on overs this season.
Commanders Offense
- The Commanders are scoring 18.3 points per game, which is 25th in the league.
- Washington is 15th in the league in yards passing per game and 21st in yards rushing.
- Per TruMedia, Antonio Gibson is 30th among running backs in yards rushing (173) and 14th in targets (16).
- J.D. McKissic is fourth among running backs in targets (23), which is good for a 13.8% target share.
- Terry McLaurin (16.2% target share, 31.3% air yards share), Curtis Samuel (22.2% target share, 11.4% air yards share), and rookie Jahan Dotson (13.2% target share, 24.8% air yards share) have all been factors for Washington.
- Dotson is tied for the league lead in receiving touchdowns (four). He’s played 165 snaps from the perimeter and 73 in the slot.
- Samuel is tied for ninth in the league in receptions (26). He’s played 53 snaps on the perimeter and 159 in the slot.
- Terry McLaurin is fifth in the league in snaps on the perimeter with 216, while seeing 40 in the slot.
- Logan Thomas has a solid 12% target share. He’s only seen 68 snaps as an in-line tight end with 112 in the slot.
Titans Defense
- The Titans have allowed 25.3 points per game, which is 25th in the league.
- Per The Edge, Tennessee has allowed the 14th-most yards rushing and the sixth-fewest yards receiving to running backs.
- The Titans have surrendered the fourth-most yards receiving on the tenth-most receptions to wide receivers this season.
- Tennessee has given up the second-most PPR points to perimeter wide receivers this season.
- The Titans have allowed the fourth-most yards receiving on the fifth-most receptions to tight ends this year.
- The Titans have given up the most PPR points to in-line tight ends this season.
The Titans Offense vs. Commanders Defense
Even with Chase Young still out Washington has a talented front that has not quite realized its potential. That puts them towards the back of the middle of the pack until Young returns. The Titans' offensive line has become a below-average unit, especially with the loss of LT Taylor Lewan. The Commanders' front has a mild trench advantage in this contest.
Betting Notes
- The Titans are 2-2 against the spread this season.
- The Titans are 2-2 on overs this season.
Titans Offense
- The Titans are scoring 18.8 points per game, which is 21st in the league.
- Tennessee is 27th in the league in yards passing per game and 20th in yards rushing.
- Per TruMedia, Derrick Henry is tenth among running backs in yards rushing with 306. Henry has been much more involved in the passing game over the last two weeks, recording six targets in Week 3 and 5 last week.
- Robert Woods has a 19.8% target share and a 24.9% air yards share. Woods has seen 103 snaps on the perimeter and 49 in the slot.
- Nick Westbrook-Ikhine leads Tennessee wide receivers in snaps from the slot with 60, with 77 on the perimeter.
Commanders Defense
- The Commanders have allowed 26.8 points per game, which is 29th in the league.
- Per The Edge, Washington has allowed the 20th-most yards rushing and the 22nd-most yards receiving to running backs this season.
- The Commanders have surrendered the third-most yards receiving on the sixth-most receptions to wide receivers this year.
- Washington has given up the second-most PPR points to slot receivers this season.
- The Commanders have given up the 22nd-most yards receiving on the seventh-fewest receptions to tight ends.
This Is What You’re Betting on in Commanders vs. Titans
A bet on the Commanders is a bet on a talented offense with an untrustworthy quarterback in Carson Wentz. If you’re betting on Washington, you’re betting on Wentz to be more consistent against a well-coached Titans' defense. On the other side of the ball, the Big Dog Derrick Henry is public enemy number one for opposing defenses. Henry has only breached 100 yards rushing once this year, which was last week in Indianapolis. A bet on Washington can also be a bet against Ryan Tannehill, who has had a completion percentage of over 70% in each of his last two games.
A bet on the Titans is a bet on a physical, well-coached football team with zero quit in them. Tennessee has scored 24 points in winning efforts against the Raiders and Colts over the past two weeks. If you’re betting on Tennessee, you’re expecting a similar offensive effort this week in Washington. A bet on the Titans can be a direct bet against Carson Wentz, who has five interceptions over the first four games.
Awards Market Ramifications: Commanders wide receiver Jahan Dotson is a fringe Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate. Derrick Henry is a Comeback Player of the Year candidate.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: Generally speaking, I get some exposure to both teams in winner pools when the spread is below three points. That said, I expect to have more Tennessee than Washington in winner pools this week, as I’d prefer to back the better coaching staff and quarterback in this matchup. Whoever I go with in this contest will be ranked toward the bottom in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: As I mentioned on Monday’s episode of Betting The NFL, I internally pick every game against the spread so I know which teams I have a good read on and which ones I don’t. Unsurprisingly, both the Titans and Commanders fall in the area of teams I don’t have a good read on. That’s why I’m going to stay completely away from this game for betting purposes.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 14-6
Props 2022: 13-7
WATCH MORE: Trevon Diggs Gifted an INT by Carson Wentz
