Betting
10/7/22
7 min read
Matchups Week 5: Chargers at Browns
Los Angeles Chargers (2-2) at Cleveland Browns (2-2)
Opening Spread: Browns +3
Opening Game Total: 48.5
Opening Team Totals: Browns (22.75), Chargers (25.75)
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns
The Line Report
- This line opened between Browns +2.5 and Browns +3.
- This line has moved back down to Browns +2.5 as of Thursday night.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Browns +3.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Browns +2.
- This total opened between 48.5 and 49.5.
- This total has moved down to 47.5 as of Thursday night.
Notable Injuries
Browns: Questionable: LG Joel Bitonio, Edge Myles Garrett, Edge Jadeveon Clowney, DT Jordan Elliot, DT Taven Bryan, LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, CB Denzel Ward.
Chargers: IR: LT Rashawn Slater, Edge Joey Bosa; Out: WR Keenan Allen; Questionable: WR Joshua Palmer, TE Gerald Everett.
The Browns Offense vs. Chargers Defense
Cleveland has a top-five offensive line paired with one of the, if not the, best running back duo in football. Los Angeles continues to be one of the worst run defenses in the league. Cleveland has a massive advantage in the run game in this contest. With star edge Joey Bosa out, the Chargers' top-five pass rush moves outside the top ten. Cleveland has a mild edge in pass protection, though Chargers edge Khalil Mack can be a problem for anyone.
Betting Notes
- The Browns are 2-2 against the spread this season.
- The Browns are 4-0 on overs this season.
Browns Offense
- The Browns are scoring 26.3 points per game, tied for sixth in the league.
- Cleveland is 25th in the league in yards passing per game and second in yards rushing.
- Per TruMedia, Nick Chubb is second in the league in yards rushing (459) and rushing touchdowns (5). Chubb is tied for third in the league in carries (81) and tied for second in red zone carries (15).
- Kareem Hunt is 27th among running backs in yards rushing (200) and fifth in red zone carries (13).
- Amari Cooper has a 25.2% target share and a 38.4% air yards share. Cooper has played 196 snaps on the perimeter and 35 in the slot.
- Donovan Peoples-Jones leads the Browns in snaps from the slot with 80, while seeing 151 on the perimeter.
- Rookie wide receiver David Bell is next with 66 snaps in the slot.
- David Njoku has breached 70 yards receiving and five receptions in each of his last two games. He’s commanding an 18.7% target share while seeing 166 of his snaps as an in-line tight end, 26 on the perimeter, and 56 out of the slot.
Chargers Defense
- The Chargers have allowed 27 points per game, which is 30th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Chargers have allowed the ninth-most yards rushing and the seventh-most yards receiving to running backs this season.
- The Chargers have given up the 14th-most yards receiving on the ninth-most receptions to wide receivers this year.
- Los Angeles has allowed the third-most PPR points to slot receivers this season.
- The Chargers have surrendered the 13th-most yards receiving on the 18th-most receptions to tight ends this year.
The Chargers Offense vs. Browns Defense
The entire Browns' starting front four is on the injury report as of Thursday night. If Myles Garrett plays, the absence of star LT Rashawn Slater creates a significant issue for the Chargers' offensive line. In general, the loss of Slater drops the Chargers from a top-five type of offensive line to one that’s outside the top ten. Cleveland has a middling front four where Garrett provides an individual mismatch against nearly everyone. But as a whole, this is more of a draw in the trenches from a macro perspective.
Betting Notes
- The Chargers are 3-1 against the spread this season.
- The Chargers are 2-2 on overs this season.
Chargers Offense
- The Chargers are scoring 23 points per game, good for 12th in the league.
- Los Angeles is first in the league in yards passing per game and last in yards rushing.
- Justin Herbert’s offense leads the league in passing yards while playing through broken rib cartilage.
- Per TruMedia, Austin Ekeler leads all running backs in yards receiving (188) and receptions (27). Ekeler is second in target share among running backs with 18.4%.
- Mike Williams has a 19.6% target share with a 34.9% air yards share with three end zone targets. Williams has played 206 snaps on the perimeter and 32 in the slot.
- Tight end Gerald Everett has 16 receptions for 211 yards receiving and two scores with a 16.5% target share. Everett has played 107 snaps as an in-line tight end, 53 from the slot, and 19 on the perimeter.
Browns Defense
- The Browns have allowed 23.8 points per game, which is 19th in the league.
- Per The Edge, the Browns have allowed the 15th-most yards rushing and the seventh-fewest yards receiving to running backs this year.
- Cleveland has yielded the 17th-most yards receiving on the seventh-fewest receptions to wide receivers this year.
- The Browns have allowed the 18th-most yards receiving on the fifth-fewest receptions to tight ends this season.
This is What You’re Betting On in Browns vs. Chargers
This game reminds me a lot of the Eagles vs. Chargers game from last year. With Jalen Hurts struggling as a passer, Nick Sirianni’s coaching staff ran the ball down the Chargers' throats all game behind their top-tier offensive line. The Chargers had no answer and no adjustments. If Los Angeles had a good quarterback like Kirk Cousins, they lose in Philly last year. The great Justin Herbert carried their offense to a narrow win.
Cleveland is very well positioned to dominate the Chargers' defense on the ground unless Los Angeles goes out of its way to make Jacoby Brissett beat them in the air. It seems pretty obvious that Los Angeles should go out of its way to try and limit the Browns' rushing attack. It will be a pleasant surprise if they do. If they don’t, this game will be on injured Justin Herbert carrying the Chargers to victory, as he’s often done in his early career.
When these two teams played last season, the Chargers won 47-42. Herbert had 398 yards passing with four touchdowns in the air and another on the ground. Mike Williams went off for eight receptions for 165 yards receiving and two touchdowns. Austin Ekeler had 66 yards rushing with two scores to go with 53 yards receiving and another score. Baker Mayfield threw for 305 yards, while Cleveland ran for 230 yards. David Njoku had seven receptions for 149 yards receiving and a touchdown.
If you’re betting on the Chargers, you are always betting on Justin Herbert. Maybe you’ll be assisted by the Chargers adopting a more Belichick-style approach on defense, where they deploy an opponent-specific gameplan to make their adversary play “left-handed.” This one is so obvious I think there is some chance it happens, especially since these two teams played each other last year and the Browns ran all over Los Angeles. Keep in mind this is the second road game in a row for the Chargers.
On the Cleveland side, the early returns are showing that Jacoby Brissett is not much of a downgrade from Baker Mayfield. The Browns can run on just about anyone. The question here is will the Chargers actually gameplan to mitigate Cleveland’s strength on offense? Or will they continue to do what they do on defense, which has not worked through Brandon Staley’s first 21 games as an NFL head coach? This will most likely be a game where the Chargers are heavily backed by the public as a sub-three-point favorite. Your major concern on the Cleveland side is quarterback related: Do you really want to bet on Jacoby Brissett against Justin Herbert?
Awards Market Ramifications: Justin Herbert is an MVP candidate. Nick Chubb is an Offensive Player of the Year contender.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I’m in a number of winner pools, so I will take the Browns in at least one of them as a differentiator. Whoever I go with in confidence pools will be ranked toward the bottom.
Spread Pool: I will consider taking the Chargers when I can get them as a sub-three-point favorite.
Survivor Pool: This contest should be avoided in survivor pools.
Ryan’s recent betting record:
ATS 2021: 49-31
ATS 2022: 14-6
Props 2022: 13-7
WATCH MORE: Strong Running & Ball Control Keeping the "Surprise" Browns Going
