Betting
9/30/22
7 min read
Matchups Week 4: Bears at Giants
Chicago Bears (2-1) at New York Giants (2-1)
Opening Spread: Giants -3.
Opening Game Total: 39.5.
Opening Team Totals: Giants (21.25), Bears (18.25).
Weather: Outdoors, rain likely.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Giants -3.
- This line has moved to Giants -3.5 as of Thursday night.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Giants -3.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Giants -3.
- This total opened at 39.5 points.
- This total remains at 39.5 points as of Thursday night.
Notable Injuries
Giants: IR: WR Sterling Shepard. Questionable: WR Kadarius Toney, WR Wan’Dale Robinson, DL Leonard Williams, CB Aaron Robinson.
Bears: IR: WR Byron Pringle. Questionable: RB David Montgomery, Edge Robert Quinn, LB Roquan Smith, LB Matthew Adams, CB Jaylon Johnson.
The Giants Offense vs. Bears Defense
The Giants continue to have a non-existent passing attack under Daniel Jones and New York’s bottom-tier offensive line. Outside of Edge Robert Quinn, the Bears do not have any high-level disruptors. Consider this trench matchup a relative draw.
Three of the Bears four best defensive players (LB Roquan Smith, Edge Robert Quinn, CB Jaylon Johnson) are on the injury report. If Kadarius Toney and Wan’Dale Robinson both miss this contest, New York will march out the worst group of pass catchers that professional football has seen in some time.
Notes and Observations
- The Giants are 2-1 against the spread this season.
- The Giants are 1-2 on overs this season.
- Per The Edge, Daniel Jones is 28th in the league in yards passing and 30th in yards per attempt.
- The Giants below average offensive line and a bottom-of-the-barrel group of pass catchers are genuine reasons behind Jones' struggles. I say that as someone that thought Jones was drafted a round and a half too early the day he was selected sixth overall. For sports betting purposes, the reality of the situation is Daniel Jones has been a relative non-factor in the overwhelming majority of his starts as a professional quarterback. I’d argue he hasn’t won a game since his rookie season, with last year’s win in New Orleans being the closest, most recent exception.
- The one area that Jones is a real asset is as a runner, where he is third among quarterbacks in yards rushing (125 yards).
- Saquon Barkley is second in the league in yards rushing and eighth in yards receiving amongst running backs.
- Through the first three games, Saquon Barkley is the Giants offense.
- The Bears defense has allowed the seventh most yards rushing and the 17th most yards receiving to running backs this season.
- The Giants roster is filled with replacement-level pass catchers. However, Kadarius Toney is a genuine difference maker when he’s healthy. Sadly, that hasn’t been very often in his early career.
- Chicago has allowed the 13th fewest yards receiving on the fourth fewest receptions to wide receivers this season.
- Giants tight end Daniel Bellinger has caught 5-of-6 targets for 56 yards and a score this season. Five of those targets came last Monday night against the Cowboys.
- The Bears have allowed the seventh-fewest yards receiving on the eighth fewest receptions to tight ends this season.
The Bears Offense vs. Giants Defense
If Leonard Williams is ready to go in this contest, it will be the first time that New York’s fringe top-ten front will all be active for a regular season game this season. If that happens, New York will have a considerable trench edge in the passing game against Chicago’s bottom-tier offensive line. On the ground, the Bears offensive line has played better than expected to this point. I’d still give New York’s front an edge in that phase if they are at full strength, but more of a slight one in that phase.
Notes and Observations
- The Bears are 1-1-1 against the spread this season.
- The Bears are 1-2 on overs this season.
- Per The Edge, Justin Fields is 32nd in the league in yards passing and 22nd in the league in yards per attempt.
- Fields has only attempted 45 passes through the first three games. Last week against the Texans, Chicago came out more aggressive on offense than they had in the previous two matchups. It still didn’t work, and Justin Fields threw two absolutely brutal interceptions against Houston.
- Fields is sixth in yards rushing among quarterbacks with 95 yards.
- Both David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert have already breached 100 yards rushing in a game this season. Montgomery is reportedly out this Sunday, and Herbert is one of the best backup running backs in the league.
- The Giants have allowed the third most yards rushing and the 15th most yards receiving to opposing running backs this season.
- Chicago tried to get Darnell Mooney going a little last week as he had six targets against the Texans. Those six targets were good for a 35.3% target share last week. Unfortunately, Chicago’s passing offense has been completely ineffective through the first three games. None of their pass catchers are currently reliable.
- The Giants have allowed the fifth-fewest yards receiving on the tenth fewest receptions to wide receivers this season.
- Keep in mind that New York has faced Ryan Tannehill, Baker Mayfield, and Cooper Rush through the first three games.
- The Giants have allowed the 18th most yards receiving on the 20th most receptions to tight ends this season.
- After facing two high-end defenses in the first two games, Cole Kmet saw three targets last week which was good for a 17.6% target share last week.
This is What You’re Betting On in Giants vs. Bears
A bet on the Giants is a bet on an offense that is extremely reliant on running back Saquon Barkley. If Kadarius Toney returns that will raise the ceiling of New York’s passing attack, but as things stand now New York has a non-functioning passing offense. A bet on the Giants is primarily a bet against struggling Justin Fields. If Leonard Williams is able to return to action, the Giants will have a significant trench advantage on defense. If you’re betting on the Giants, you’re either betting on a bottom-tier offense suddenly breaking through or you’re betting on their defense continuing to perform at a rock-solid level against a struggling Bears offense. The latter outcome is a far more reasonable expectation, especially if Williams is active.
A bet on the Bears is a bet on Chicago’s running game and their gritty defense. Quarterback Justin Fields has his moments and he’s only making his fourth start in his second season. But right now, the Bears have a non-functioning passing attack and Fields continues to make bad decisions. All of those things said about the Bears' passing game apply to the Giants passing attack. A bet on the Bears is a bet against Daniel Jones. If you’re betting on the Bears, you are betting on them keeping it close in what is most likely to be an ugly football game. That isn’t an unreasonable expectation.
Awards Market Ramifications: Brian Daboll and Matt Eberflus are both fringe Coach of the Year candidates.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: If the Giants front four is at full strength, I’ll be taking the Giants in winner pools. In that scenario, I’ll be ranking them adjacent to Pittsburgh in my confidence pool rankings.
Spread Pool: I can’t take this Giants offense as a -3.5-point favorite against anyone given the limitations of their offense. That said, I will be in attendance for this game and if the residuals of Hurricane Ian bring significant wind along with the expected rain, I’ll be dropping into our Sunday live blog to let you know if I’m making a bet on the under in this contest (which I will do if there is significant wind).
Survivor: This game should be avoided for survivor purposes.
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