Betting
9/23/22
5 min read
Matchups Week 3: Las Vegas Raiders at Tennessee Titans
Las Vegas Raiders (0-2) at Tennessee Titans (0-2)
Spread: Titans +1.
Game Total: 45.5.
Team Totals: Titans (22.25), Raiders (23.25).
Weather: Outdoors, no current concerns.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Titans +1.
- This line has moved to Titans +2.5.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Titans +2.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Titans +2.
- This total opened at 45.5 points.
- This total has moved up to 46.5 points as of Thursday night.
Notable Injuries
Titans: LT Taylor Lewan (Questionable), Edge Bud Dupree (Questionable), LB Zach Cunningham (Questionable), CB Kristian Fulton (Questionable).
Raiders: RB Josh Jacobs (Questionable), WR Hunter Renfrow (Questionable), C Andre James (Questionable), RT Jermaine Eluemunor (Questionable), DT Bilal Nichols (Questionable), LB Denzel Perryman (Questionable), S Tre’Von Moehrig (Questionable).
The Titans Offense vs. Raiders Defense
The Titans offense has underachieved as a whole to this point in the season, scoring the fifth-fewest points per game (13.5). Tennessee’s bottom-tier offensive line could have serious issues with the Raiders premium edge duo of Chandler Jones and Maxx Crosby. The Raiders’ pass rush has a trench edge in this contest.
Notes and Observations
- The Titans are 0-2 against the spread this season.
- The Titans are 1-1 on overs this season.
- Per The Edge, Ryan Tannehill is twenty-fifth in the league in passing yards.
- Derrick Henry is eighteenth in the league in rushing yards with 107.
- The Raiders have allowed the sixteenth most rushing yards to running backs this season.
- Among Titans’ wide receivers, rookie Treylon Burks is a distant third in snaps (47) and routes run (30). However, Burks leads the Titans in target share (20.8%) and team air yards share (28.2%) with an eye-popping 3.40 yards per route run.
- The Raiders have allowed the twelfth fewest yards receiving to wide receivers this season.
- The Raiders have allowed the third most yards receiving on the third most receptions to enemy tight ends this season.
- Titans’ tight ends Geoff Swain and Austin Hooper have seen significant snaps this season. But Hooper has run 39 routes to Swain’s 19.
The Raiders Offense vs. Titans Defense
Tennessee has one of the best interior line duos in the league in Denico Autry and Jeffery Simmons. As a result, the Titans have an advantage in the interior against the Raiders below-average offensive line.
The Raiders have an exceptional group of pass catchers in rock-solid slot Hunter Renfrow, dynamic tight end Darren Waller, and one of the best route runners in the league in Davante Adams. That group will test Tennessee’s young secondary.
Notes and Observations
- The Raiders are 0-2 against the spread this season.
- The Raiders are 0-1-1 on overs this season.
- Per The Edge, Derek Carr is ninth in the league in passing yards.
- Raiders running back Josh Jacobs is currently thirteenth in rushing among running backs with 126 yards.
- Through the first two games, the Titans have surrendered the third most rushing yards to running backs.
- The Titans have allowed the fifth most yards receiving on the eleventh most receptions to wide receivers this season.
- Tennessee has allowed the seventh most PPR points to perimeter and slot receivers.
- Davante Adams is currently sixth in the league in target share (32.4%) and ninth in team air yards share (43.2%). Most of Adams' production came in Week 1, as he shredded the Chargers for a 10-141-1 line on 17 targets.
- Consider this an above-average matchup for Hunter Renfrow, who has a 21.6% target share this season.
- Among tight ends, Darren Waller is sixth in the league in target share (18.9%) and fourth in team air yards share (24.8%) with a substantial 2.15 yards per route run.
- Through the first two weeks, Tennessee has given up the eighth fewest yards receiving on the fifth fewest receptions to enemy tight ends. Tennessee’s opening day opponent, the Giants, lack a relevant pass-catching tight end, thus skewing these figures.
What You’re Betting On in Titans vs. Raiders
A bet on the Titans is a bet on a team that lost an ugly game to the Giants on opening day and followed that up by getting embarrassed in Buffalo on Monday Night Football. Ryan Tannehill has revived his career in Tennessee but turned back into a pumpkin through the first two games this season. Likewise, Derrick Henry didn’t look like himself when he returned late last season from a foot injury, which has continued through the first two games this year. So if you’re betting on the Titans, you are betting on either Tannehill or Henry (or both) making a far more significant impact than either of them have so far this season. Perhaps a more probable path to the Titans improving this week is if their pass defense exceeds expectations against the Raiders offense.
A bet on the Raiders is a bet on a good football team that has lost two close games to two quality opponents to start the season. You’re betting on Derek Carr and the Raiders top-shelf group of pass catchers playing up to, if not beyond, expectations. In addition, the Raiders premium edge rush duo could significantly impact this contest. The two biggest concerns with a Raiders bet here are the Titans defensive front dominating in the trenches or Derrick Henry returning to form for the first time since he injured his foot last season.
Awards Market Ramifications: This contest has no current awards ramifications.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: I won’t finalize until the end of the week, but I expect to take the Raiders in winner pools unless there are significant weather or injury developments. Whoever I take in confidence pools will be ranked in the bottom third.
Spread Pool: I’ll consider taking the Raiders in ATS tournaments.
Survivor: Avoid this contest for survivor purposes.
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