Betting

Matchups Week 3: Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers

Jaguars Chargers

Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1) at Los Angeles Chargers (1-1)

Opening Line: Chargers -7.

Game Total: 48.

Team Totals: Chargers (27.5), Jaguars (20.5).

Weather: Indoor/outdoor venue, no weather concerns.

The Line Report

  •         This line opened as Chargers -7.
  •         This line moved down slightly to Chargers -6.5 as of Thursday night.
  •         DraftKings Pick’Em has the Chargers -7.5.
  •         Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Chargers -7.
  •         This total opened at 48 points.
  •         This total moved slightly down to 47.5 as of Thursday night.

Notable Injuries

Chargers: QB Justin Herbert (Questionable), WR Keenan Allen (Questionable), C Corey Linsley (Questionable), RT Trey Pipkins III (Questionable), CB J.C. Jackson (Questionable).

Jaguars: None.

The Chargers Offense vs. Jaguars Defense

The Chargers have a top-ten caliber offensive line. Through the first two games, the Jaguars’ pass rush has been better than expected, posting the fifth-highest pressure rate in the league (33.8%). Before the season started, I would have treated this trench matchup as if the Chargers have a significant edge. Right now, I’m treating it as more of a slight edge.

Notes and Observations

  •         The Chargers are 2-0 against the spread this season.
  •         The Chargers are 0-2 on overs this season.
  •         Per The Edge, Justin Herbert is fifth in the league in passing yards.
  •         Among running backs, Austin Ekeler is currently 31st in the league in rushing and first in receiving yards.
  •         Through the first two games, the Jaguars have given up the sixth-fewest rushing yards and the second-most receiving yards to running backs.
  •         Keenan Allen missed Week 2’s contest in Kansas City. In Allen’s absence, Mike Williams popped off for an 8-113-1 line on 10 targets.
  •         The Jaguars have given up the 11th-fewest receiving yards to wide receivers.
  •         Among tight ends, Gerald Everett is 11th in the league in target share (17.5%).
  •         The Jaguars have given up the 15th-most receiving yards to tight ends this season. 

The Jaguars Offense vs. Chargers Defense

Second-year quarterback Trevor Lawrence looks like a different quarterback under Doug Pederson. Lawrence and the Jaguars offense have played well against the Commanders and Colts to start the season. They get a bump in class this week against the contending Chargers. Los Angeles’s elite edge duo of Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack gives the Chargers a pass-rushing advantage against the Jaguars’ fringe top-ten offensive line.

Notes and Observations

  •         The Jaguars are 1-1 against the spread this season.
  •         The Jaguars are 1-1 on overs this season.
  •         Per The Edge, Trevor Lawrence is 14th in the league in passing yards.
  •         James Robinson has out carried Travis Etienne 34 to 13. However, Etienne has run more routes (34 to 23) and seen more targets (7 to 4).
  •         The Chargers have allowed the 19th-most rushing yards and the 12th-most receiving yards to running backs this season.
  •         Christian Kirk has 12 receptions for 195 yards and two scores this season. He has a 26.5% target share and a 30.5% team air yards share.
  •         The Chargers have allowed the 19th-most receiving yards on the 20th-most receptions to wide receivers this season.
  •         Among tight ends, Evan Engram is ninth in the league in target share (17.6%) with a low 5.2 ADOT.
  •         Through the first two games, the Chargers have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards on the seventh-most receptions to tight ends. Keep in mind that Los Angeles has faced Darren Waller and Travis Kelce in those contests.

This is What You’re Betting On in Chargers vs. Jaguars  

A bet on the Chargers is a bet on a contending team, with an elite roster, coming off a long week. If you’re betting on the Chargers here, you have three concerns. The first is Justin Herbert’s injury situation. It certainly appears that Herbert is going to play, but there is at least some chance he starts this contest and doesn’t finish. The second-biggest concern is that Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is a young, but high-end, talent that has taken a step forward this year. The third is that Keenan Allen’s status is in some doubt. That said, ultimately the Chargers have one of the best rosters in the league and the Jaguars are still a young, unproven team.

A bet on the Jaguars is a bet on Trevor Lawrence and Jacksonville’s blue-chip pass rush going into Los Angeles and hanging with the Chargers. Justin Herbert’s injury situation creates some paths where Chargers backup quarterback Chase Daniel sees some action here. That’s too thin to be the reason you bet on Jacksonville, but it is something to be aware of. Assuming that Herbert plays, a bet on the Jaguars is a bet on a young, improving team giving a significantly superior roster a close game.

Awards Market Ramifications: Justin Herbert is an MVP contender. Chargers edge rushers Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack are Defensive Player of the Year candidates. Jaguars coach Doug Pederson is an interesting Coach of the Year candidate at this early juncture.

Winner/ Confidence Pool: Unless Herbert ends up missing this contest, I’ll be taking the Chargers in winner pools and setting them in one of the two top slots in confidence rankings.

Spread Pool: I’m going to stay away from this game due to Herbert’s injury situation.

Survivor: If Herbert has no injury designation the Chargers would be the slam dunk chalk in Week 3. If Herbert starts I will play the Chargers in at least one of my survivor pools, but the prospect that Herbert starts this game and doesn’t finish concerns me in survivor. I mapped out the Chargers other strong survivor weeks here.

 

WATCH MORE: Dave Wannstedt breaks down how Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars are becoming the Wisconsin Badgers of the NFL.

 

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