Betting
9/24/22
7 min read
Matchups Week 3: Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins
Buffalo Bills (2-0) at Miami Dolphins (2-0)
Opening Spread: Dolphins +4.5.
Opening Game Total: 51.
Team Totals: Dolphins (23.25), Bills (27.75)
Weather: Outdoors, chance of rain.
The Line Report
- This line opened as Dolphins +4.5.
- This line has moved to Dolphins +5.5 as of Thursday night.
- DraftKings Pick’Em has the Dolphins +5.5.
- Circa Sports Millions Pro Football Contest has the Dolphins +5.5.
- This total opened at 51 points.
- This total has moved up to 52.5 points as of Thursday night but has then moved down to 50.5 points as of Friday night.
Notable Injuries
Dolphins: WR Cedrick Wilson Jr. (Questionable), LT Terron Armstead (Questionable), NT Raekwon Davis (Questionable), CB Xavien Howard (Questionable).
Bills: DT Ed Oliver (Out), CB Dane Jackson (Out), CB Tre’Davious White (Out), S Micah Hyde (Out), WR Gabe Davis (Questionable), TE Dawson Knox (Questionable), C Mitch Morse (Questionable), S Jordan Poyer (Questionable).
The Dolphins Offense vs. the Bills Defense
The Bills front four has been fantastic, and they have exceeded my expectations to this point in the season. Even with DT Ed Oliver out, this is still a very dangerous Buffalo front. I’m treating this trench matchup as if Buffalo has a moderate edge against Miami.
I’ve been calling Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle the best wide receiver duo in football since Hill was traded to Miami. I’ve been optimistic about Mike McDaniel’s offense this offseason. I was not expecting the Dolphins to lay siege to anyone as early as they did last week. Injuries have ravaged Buffalo’s secondary. Miami is not the team you want to face when you’re down two starting cornerbacks and a safety.
Notes and Observations
- The Dolphins are 2-0 against the spread this season.
- The Dolphins are 1-1 on overs this season.
- Per The Edge, Tua Tagovailoa leads the league in passing yards and is third in yards per attempt.
- Raheem Mostert ran ahead of Chase Edmonds last week in Baltimore. We can reasonably expect erratic deployments in Miami’s backfield under Mike McDaniel, just like we could when he was in San Francisco.
- The Bills have allowed the third-fewest rushing yards and the second-fewest yards receiving to running backs this season.
- Buffalo’s success in the run game is game script related, as the Bills dismantled the Rams and Titans to start the season. That said, Buffalo allows only 2.9 yards per carry through the first two games.
- Tyreek Hill leads the league in yards receiving (284), he’s second in receptions (19), tenth in target share (30.9%), 14th in team air yards share (40.2%), with an eye-popping 4.30 yards per route run and a 9.9 ADOT.
- Jaylen Waddle is third in the league in yards receiving (240), fifth in receptions (15), 14th in target share (29.6%), 17th in team air yards share (37.7%), with an exceptional 3.64 yards per route run and a 9.7 ADOT.
- Miami’s passing offense is extremely condensed between Hill and Waddle, while both players have an extraordinarily similar, premium role.
- The Bills have allowed the tenth fewest yards receiving on the seventh most receptions to wide receivers this season.
- Buffalo has given up the tenth most PPR points to perimeter receivers and the fourth fewest to slot receivers.
- Per TruMedia, Tyreek Hill has seen 60.9% of his snaps on the perimeter and 35.9% in the slot. Jaylen Waddle has seen 81.1% of his snaps out wide with 18.9% in the slot.
- Since Buffalo’s secondary is missing three starters along with safety Jordan Poyer on the injury report, I give far less weight to how their pass defense has performed in previous weeks because that was a different pass defense than what Miami will see this week.
- Per The Edge, Buffalo has limited opposing tight ends to the ninth fewest yards receiving on the tenth fewest receptions.
- Dolphins tight end Mike Gesicki is the very distant third option in this offense, catching all five of his targets for 42 yards and a score this season.
The Bills Offense vs. the Dolphins Defense
Between Buffalo’s fringe top-ten caliber offensive line and Josh Allen’s play-extending abilities, the Bills have a trench advantage against the Dolphins average, at best, front.
Notes and Observations
- The Bills are 2-0 against the spread this season.
- The Bills are 1-1 on overs this season.
- Per The Edge, Josh Allen is third in the league in passing yards, fourth in yards per attempt, and sixth among quarterbacks in rushing yards with 66.
- Last week in Baltimore, Lamar Jackson had 119 yards rushing and a touchdown on nine carries.
- Buffalo’s leading rusher is Devin Singletary, who has one more yard than Allen on the ground.
- Miami has allowed the fewest rushing yards to running backs this season.
- Among wide receivers, Stefon Diggs is second in receptions (20), second in yards receiving (270), first in receiving touchdowns (4), first in PPR points (71), fourth in target share (33.3%), eighth in team air yards share (45.7%), with an outstanding 4.15 yards per route run, and a 10.1 ADOT.
- The Dolphins have given up the 17th most yards receiving on the fewest receptions to wide receivers this season.
- Gabriel Davis missed Week 2’s contest against the Titans. In Week 1, Davis had a 16.0 ADOT along with a 37.9% team air yards share.
- This season, Miami has allowed the second most yards receiving and receptions to tight ends. The Dolphins faced Ravens tight end Mark Andrews in Week 2.
- Bills tight end Dawson Knox has had a limited role so far this season, with a 10.1% target share and just 1.02 yards per route run.
This is What You’re Betting On in Bills vs. Dolphins
A bet on the Dolphins is a bet on an offense that went nuclear in Baltimore last week. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle form the league's most dynamic wide receiver duo. Mike McDaniel is already getting exceptional results out of this offense while consistently putting his best players in positions to succeed.
The only significant factor to doubt about in this offense is if Tua Tagovailoa can remain consistent. Against an injury-ravaged Bills secondary, Tua could show that the Dolphins are a factor in the AFC. Your biggest concern when facing the Bills is that Josh Allen is a one-man army quarterback that consistently elevates Buffalo’s offense to staggering heights. Your second most significant concern is that the Bills pass rush has been a major factor in each of Buffalo’s first two games.
A bet on the Bills is a bet on Josh Allen, who has turned a good Bills offense into a great one. Buffalo’s pass rush has been outstanding so far this season, but their secondary is down several starters this week. That’s a problem when facing the dynamic duo of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Tua Tagovailoa has struggled against Buffalo to this point in his career, losing all three of his matchups against the Bills by at least two scores. A bet on the Bills is a bet against Tua, who is coming off his best performance as a professional quarterback.
Bills vs. Dolphins Pool Picks
Awards Market Ramifications: Josh Allen is the MVP favorite, while Tua Tagovailoa is an MVP contender. Von Miller is an early Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, and Stefon Diggs are all in the mix for the Offensive Player of the Year award.
Winner/ Confidence Pool: In large field winner pools with weekly payouts, I will take a little of both teams in this contest. I will do the same in confidence pools. I will rank Miami towards the bottom while leaving Buffalo in the middle.
Spread Pool: With the majority of Buffalo’s secondary out for this contest, I will take Miami at a value in at least one of my tournament entries this week. My only real concern here is that I was higher than consensus on Tua throughout this offseason. But I’m not ready to declare him as consistent.
Survivor: This contest should be avoided in survivor.
WATCH MORE: Hall of Fame Defensive Back Rod Woodson breaks down Bills vs. Dolphins
