Expert Analysis
3/5/25
9 min read
Cincinnati’s Offseason Puzzle: Can the Bengals Keep Both Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins Long-Term?
The Cincinnati Bengals are among the most interesting teams to watch heading into free agency and throughout the offseason, with plenty of drama surrounding their contract negotiations with star players, headed by Ja’Marr Chase’s quest to become the NFL’s highest-paid non-quarterback.
The first domino to fall for the Bengals came this week with Chase’s running mate at wide receiver--Tee Higgins--receiving the non-exclusive franchise tag for the second straight year. If he doesn’t sign a long-term deal by July 15, Higgins will be paid $26.179 million in 2025.
Higgins could be traded, but that doesn’t appear to be the Bengals’ plan after star QB Joe Burrow made a strong pitch for the team to keep Higgins, and the team claims to want him to stay long-term. The Bengals have an estimated $43 million of cap room, which should enable them to retain Higgins—either on the one-year franchise tender or at a lower cap hit with a long-term contract.
They are sure to sign Chase to an extension along perhaps with Trey Hendrickson, last year’s league-leading sacker who also is seeking a raise from his $21 million per year deal.
Chase certainly isn’t going anywhere, as he’s coming off the best season of his four-year career. Chase won the triple crown for receivers with a league-leading 127 receptions, 1,708 yards and 17 touchdowns. He’s a four-time Pro Bowler and was selected First-team All-Pro last season.
Chase is chasing Jefferson.
As he sought an extension last year, Chase had a hold-in that kept him out of practice in OTAs and training camp. He is under contract for 2025 with a fifth-year option as a former first rounder that will pay him $21.816 million.
Chase is seeking to overtake his former LSU teammate—Justin Jefferson of the Minnesota Vikings—as the highest-paid non-QB. Jefferson’s extension, signed last June, is for four years and $140 million ($35 million per year in new money), with $110 million guaranteed.
The good news for the Bengals is they can gain significant salary cap space by extending Chase as Minnesota did last year with Jefferson, which helped the Vikings add several impact-free agents on both sides of the ball for a 14-win season.
When Jefferson signed his extension, his cap hit was reduced from $19.74 million (on his fifth-year option) to $8.6 million as his $36.9 million signing bonus is prorated over five years, plus he had a minimum base salary of $1.125 million last season. Jefferson’s 2025 cap hit is a cap-friendly $15.167 million under the structure of his deal, meaning Cincinnati can also attain two years of relatively low cap hits on a superstar in a Chase extension.
The early reports are the Bengals and Chase are not close to an agreement, which could set up another offseason of Chase holding in or no-showing the offseason program, OTAs, and perhaps the mandatory minicamp and into training camp. That would be a distraction to the team and could put Chase in line to be fined if he’s an actual holdout (which can be rescinded for Chase as a player still on his rookie contract as it was for Nick Bosa by the 49ers when he was absent before his extension was signed).
The Bengals had a reputation in the past of being one of the stingiest NFL teams, but that went by the wayside when the team stepped up and made Burrow the NFL’s highest-paid player at $55 million per year before Dak Prescott jumped him.
The Cincinnati brass could use Chase’s massive looming deal as an excuse not to pay Higgins and look to the draft for a starting receiver or hope last year’s third-rounder—Jermaine Burton—steps up his game after a rookie season with only four catches for 107 yards in 14 games (and 2023 sixth-rounder Andrei Iosivas showed some promise last season with 36 catches for 479 yards and six touchdowns).
But the Bengals appear determined to keep one of the league’s best WR duos intact with tagging Higgins and negotiating towards a long term deal before the July 15 deadline. Successful teams have shown they can pay two top wide receivers as the champion Philadelphia Eagles are doing with A.J. Brown ($32 million per year) and DeVonta Smith ($25 million per year).
That was the position taken at the Combine last week by Cincinnati’s Director of Player Personnel (and defacto GM) Duke Tobin who said the team wants a long term deal with Higgins.
In the same press conference, Tobin said of Chase, “Ja’Marr’s always going to be our priority. He’s going to end up being the No. 1 paid non-quarterback in the league. We’re there. Let’s get it done.”
Predicting Chase’s extension
Tobin’s comments indicate to me that the Bengals have offered Chase close to $36 million per year with guarantees slightly exceeding Jefferson’s deal. The Burrow deal with $219 million guaranteed on a $275 million total contract showed the team is not afraid of huge commitments. The rumblings are Chase is asking for $40 million per year after the NFL salary cap took another big leap of $24 million this year (following a $30 million bump last year).
I don’t foresee the Bengals meeting a $40 million per year price tag. I predict negotiations will result in a settlement in the middle between Jefferson’s $35 million per year and the $40 million per year target of Chase and his agent.
It’s the perfect time as he comes out of his rookie contract for the 25-year-old Chase to sign a four-year, $150 million extension ($37.5 million per year) with the signing bonus coming in at $40 million and a guaranteed option bonus in 2026 of $30 million (higher than Jefferson’s $36.9 million signing bonus and matching his second-year option bonus). The total guaranteed money in Chase’s new deal should come in at $120 million, nine percent higher than Jefferson’s deal.
With a low base salary of $1.125 million and a $40 million signing bonus prorated over five years (including this season and the next four years under the extension), Chase’s 2025 cap number would be $9.125 million, a savings of $12.691 million. They can work the numbers to get a 2026 cap number in the $18 million range.
The Bengals may ask for a five-year extension to put him under contract for six years, including this season. But Chase will resist on the basis of matching Jefferson’s four-year extension so he’ll be under contract for five years from 2025-2029. He’ll also want to hit free agency just as he reaches 30 years old, which will be the case with a contract running through the 2029 season, and by then, salaries almost certainly will have continued to climb.
I expect the new deal to include other elements similar to Jefferson who has per-game roster bonuses ($30,000 per game to equal $510,000 over the season so he has to be on the field to max out the deal) and workout bonuses (Jefferson has $250,000 per year in the last two years of his deal).
With the way the salary cap has been rising the past two years, it’s likely Chase and his agent will seek escalators to increase his base salary if he continues to produce as he did last season and to protect him from falling too far behind other top wide receivers who may receive a bigger deal over the next several years. The Bengals will try to avoid escalators in the new contract since they would be paying him at the top of the market.
The Bengals are looking to return to Super Bowl-contending status.
The Bengals are entering a critical period where they want to take advantage of their elite offensive talent led by Burrow, Chase and Higgins. After their run to the Super Bowl in 2021 and a final four appearance in 2022, they fell short of the playoffs at 9-8 the past two seasons primarily due to Burrow’s wrist injury in 2023 and the team’s defensive struggles the past two years.
For the Bengals to return to the playoffs and Super Bowl-contending status, they need to free up some more cap room in order to sign some quality free agents. That process can start with quickly wrapping up a Chase extension.
Other possibilities to gain cap space include a long-term deal with Higgins, an extension of about three years with the 30-year-old Hendrickson with a structure that lowers his $18.67 million cap number, and perhaps a restructure of Burrow’s contract (by converting some of his base salary into signing bonus that is prorated for cap purposes to lower his mammoth $46.25 million cap hit this year).
Then they can sign a top guard in free agency to replace Alex Cappa, who struggled the last two seasons and was released for $8 million in cap savings. The offensive line needs help after allowing Burrow to be sacked 48 times last season (fourth-most). And increased cap funds can add talent on defense, especially with more quality pass rushers after the team had only 36 sacks last season to rank 26th, with Hendrickson having 17.5 sacks, almost half the team’s total.
Cincinnati also can bolster their team via the draft with picks in Rounds 1 (No. 17 overall) through 6.
Getting an extension completed sooner rather than later with Chase will be a big step in the right direction for the Bengals.
